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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Friday, October 21, 2016
|I don't always win. Actually, yes, I do always win|
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 21-13-1 (+$670, 25.8% profit)
It's been since September 3 I had a losing week. That's six straight winners (one was a push). Just saying.
This week I'll be blunt. Struggled to come up with strong winners. A lot of fat spreads in big games (just can't go on the Michigan, Ohio State, or Alabama games), or unproven teams squaring off (I'm looking at you Mississippi State vs. Kentucky or Michigan State vs. Maryland). I think we'll pull out another winner but this is a week to go tread lightly. Note there is one Game per Power 5 (minus ACC plus AAC).
Wisconsin (-4) at Iowa (Noon EDT)
Iowa's offense is lethargic (former Longhorn coordinator Greg Davis I might add). Wisconsin has stood toe to toe with Michigan and Ohio State and took them to the end. I would expect Wisconsin to win by 10 points or more. The only hesitation is the Ohio State hangover. But the way Wisconsin plays I don't see that as a factor. If North Dakota State can come into Iowa City and win, so can Wisconsin. By a few more points.
Stanford (-1.5) vs. Colorado (3:00 p.m. EDT)
A very intriguing tilt. A near pick'em game at home, Stanford has Christian McCaffrey as questionable but did well at Notre Dame last week without him. Meanwhile Colorado is 7-0 ATS. Yes, 7-0. They can't keep it up, right? This is a week Stanford circles the wagons. Stanford's losses have been against higher flying teams, they'll hold home court here, and you even win on a last second FG or overtime win.
Arkansas (+10.5) at Auburn (6:00 EDT)
This just seems like more of an even matchup to me than 10 points. Both teams have losses to good teams (Texas A&M both, Clemson, and Alabama). The game is at Auburn and at night, but I think this goes within a TD at least. To me, a matchup of good SEC West teams with 2 losses. Maybe the insiders see something I don't.
Oklahoma (-14) at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EDT)
I've been a Texas Tech picker most of the year, but they are falling apart. They've given up 92 points and only scored 45 in their last two games. Outside of Kansas and FCS teams, it's 40+ a game. Throw in an inspired Baker Mayfield returning to Lubbock and I don't see many defensive stops. Meanwhile, Tech's offense is slowed with a hurt Pat Mahomes. This ends up like 60 to 30.
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EDT)
I don't often go for games with non-contending teams but in absence of anything else. East Carolina has lost four straight games and is on the road. In those losses they've given up about 46 points per game. They also dealt with Hurricane Matthew last week which was disruptive. They haven't won since September 10. Cincinnati has lost two straight but seem like the more talented team. And it's just a FG to win. Go with the Bearcats.
Enjoy your Saturday of football!
Monday, October 17, 2016
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
|I'm tickled blue to pick two teams from Texas this week!|
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 18-11-1 (+$590)
Lines are provided by VegasInsider.com and these bets are also registered on CappedIn.com.
Hard to believe we're in Week 7, but glad to know we're not even half way through October yet. So much more football to play starting this week! Here's another set of winners!
Texas Tech (Pk) vs. West Virginia (Noon EDT)
I love a good pick'em game, and I love offense. Texas Tech is another team I pick frequently because they can beat any spread easily. In this case, they just need to win. They do that well at home. West Virginia hasn't beat a point spread since Week 1. Seems like Tech wins this one with lots of tortillas thrown around.
Nebraska (-3) at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EDT)
Let's pump the brakes on Indiana for a minute. This line has dived from a TD to a FG and I don't see a resurgent Nebraska team coming off a bye week to have a slip up. They should outclass the Hoosiers and win by a TD or even double digits. Remember, Indiana lost to Ball State and Wake Forest.
Alabama (-13) at Tennessee (3:30 p.m. EDT)
I'm still drunk on Alabama success. Rode them to an easy win last week (okay, by a couple of points). Tennessee is banged up and came off a devastating loss at Texas A+M. This after pulling some close games out. This one could get ugly. And they never beat Alabama. Tide Rolls by 3 TD or more
Texas (-13.5) vs. Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Intriguing matchup between two teams combined 3-8. Both coming off disappointing losses. As a Texan, I sense a circling of the wagons for the Longhorns. They lost to Oklahoma but pushed a good team to the end. Iowa State has been a hard luck team, blowing leads to Oklahoma State, Baylor, and TCU and covered four straight games. They take a dip here and the Longhorns win by 3 TD or more.
Ohio State (-10) at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Ohio State has been covering like mad, only missing a misaligned ATS against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has grinded out some wins, but this level of talent will be an upgrade. Seems like if it's close the Buckeyes could win by two TD. They'll cover the 10 points.
Given some even lines I wouldn't be surprised at a push, but the wins keep coming! Have a great weekend!
Monday, October 10, 2016
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
|I'm making money. You should too.|
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 15-9-1 (+$510)
This week's theme, finding games that should be near pick'em, but one team is being given about a TD. I don't like picking games more than 8 or 9 points (because wins then are subject to loss via late touchdown). So here are this week's winners
Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m. EDT)
Okay, for this pick, I'm going with the TD favorite. Not quite a TD that is. I still am a Georgia Tech doubter. Pittsburgh is a grinding team that should be able to win this at home by 10 points or more. Even a TD win at the end gets this cover.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Texas A+M (3:30 p.m. EDT)
This is about the time that Texas A+M schedule gets tougher and they start to drop SEC games. Tennessee has had big game after big game every week and maybe this one they will start better. I see this as a toss up, so give me 6.5 points and I'll take it.
Alabama (-14) at Arkansas (7:00 p.m. EDT)
I admit I have a problem. An Alabama problem. I just can see more scenarios where they beat the spread than not. They don't always, but this game seems like one they can take control of. So tee me up again, I'll take the Tide and give the two TD
Texas Tech (+7.5) at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Texas Tech video game offense can render any game into a pick'em. Kansas State nearly picked up a win at West Virginia, but I don't like this matchup with Red Raiders speed as much as that one. Tech's defense will give up points, but I think win the game (or at least lose by a TD or less).
Florida State (+3) at Miami (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Florida State is much more battle tested than the Canes. This is just another big game in a series and I think the rivalry inspires them to step up their game. Home field at Miami is not what it used to be, and I think Florida State is angry after last week's disappointment and gets the job done.
Good luck to your team, and enjoy your college football Saturday!
Thursday, September 29, 2016
|You should listen to me. I'm rich.|
Previous Week: 5-0 (+500)
Season: 12-7-1 (+$430)
Three Top ten matchups highlight the board, and I'll give you picks in two of the three (avoided the third but would take Michigan if you care). This week the ACC and Pac 12 have the best games to pick, if I do say so myself.
Stanford (+3.5) at Washington (9:00 p.m. EDT)
To me, Stanford is the Pac 12 North King until unseated. Stanford has beat Washington 7 of the last 8 years, and is already battle tested. Washington hasn't played nearly as many big games the past five years, so give me the more experienced team that knows how to win. And I'm getting 3 points.
Notre Dame (-10.5) at Syracuse (Noon EDT)
It's circle the wagons time in South Bend. After three losses, I think the team (and coaches) will respond. And this isn't a bowl-bound Syracuse team (at least at the point). This might help that the game is on the road as the team can focus and execute. Seems like two TD is achievable.
Miami (-7.5) at Georgia Tech (Noon EDT)
Georgia Tech looks like a pretty mediocre football team. Meanwhile Miami has stormed through very bad competition. This pick based on Georgia Tech's ineptitude vs. Clemson, which was the only solid team they faced. I can't imagine it staying within 10 points.
Clemson (+2) vs Louisville (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Let me get this straight, defending ACC Champion and 2015 National Champion runner up Clemson is underdogs at home? At night? In a place they call Death Valley? And they still have their Heisman contender QB? Pop the popcorn, tap the keg, this is going to be a great game of two teams who have enough talent to make the playoff. I love home underdogs who know how to win.
Oregon (-1.5) at Washington State (9:30 p.m. EDT)
Oregon has had a number of big matchups early and not looked bad in any of them (close losses to Colorado and Nebraska). Washington State has lost to a FCS team and only beat lowly Idaho (who is petitioning to go back to FCS). Seems like Oregon will win this one, by a FG or more.
Great Saturday for football, the meat of the season is upon us!