|I may have a perfect hat, but I'm not perfect.
Previous Week: 2-3 (-130)
Season: 23-16-1 (+$540, 12.2% profit)
This week is tantalizing with a lot of highly ranked teams on the road. I believe if you go across the board on underdogs you'll do well. But which are the best chances? And which favorites are undervalued? All is revealed.
Michigan State (+24.5) vs Michigan (Noon EDT)
I don't like huge point spreads but this is just too many points. Just too many. For a Michigan State team playing for pride. Note Michigan has only had to leave the Big House once this season to a soft Rutgers team (yes, they did cover). But State can at least make a game of it, the Big 10 home field means something.
Georgia Tech (-6.5) vs Duke (Noon EDT)
This is my small game pick of the week. Georgia Tech has controlled teams they are better than. And Duke is one of them. Outside of a Notre Dame win, Duke really hasn't competed well. A TD seems like an easy target to control.
Notre Dame (+2) vs Miami (3:30 EDT)
Miami has lost three straight football games and doesn't have a banner win this year (Georgia Tech and Appalachian State don't count). Notre Dame season has been nothing short of disaster of Oregon or Texas proportion. But if they get a couple of points at home, I can't resist. This might be circle the wagons time, but, again, just don't see enough out of Miami to justify the road favorite.
Baylor (-3) at Texas (3:30 EDT)
Texas is undefeated at home, but even their last home win against Iowa State they were losing at half time. Barely beat a bad Notre Dame team in overtime. Baylor is much better than both of those teams. The Longhorns defense has been the Achilles heel all year and this week won't be kind. Heck, Baylor can win in OT and still not lose the cover. Also, for the love of what's good, take the Over 72.
Florida State (+4.5) vs Clemson (8:00 EDT)
This has become a premier ACC game every year and you know it was circled on both teams' schedules since the final whistle last year. Something hasn't quite been right with Clemson and Florida State has been pretty good save one dud against Louisville (and an uninspired effort against North Carolina which they should have won). This one is in their wheel house (and they win for a tight loss).
I think there are at least three winners, maybe four among this group! Did I mention to take the over on Baylor/Texas?