Sportsman of the Week Ending 2/5/2017

There can be little doubt who was the story of the sports week this week.  Let us count the Super Bowl records.  Most Super Bowls won (5).  Biggest comeback in Super Bowl history (25 points).  Most completions (43).  Most yards (466).  New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did it all in stunning a crowd who figured it could not be done.  It could.  After trailing 28-3 late in the third quarter, Brady orchestrated 31 points in 21 minutes to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in Super Bowl LI.  Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have now combined for 5 Super Bowl victories, most among a QB/Head Coach tandem.  This was the Patriots second victory in Houston, having won Super Bowl XXXVIII in the same stadium.  Many are calling it the greatest Super Bowl ever played.  Tom Brady is certainly the most victorious Super Bowl quarterback ever, if not the greatest quarterback ever.

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/22/2017

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is perhaps the greatest game planners in NFL history, and he saw something in our Sportsman of the Week that clearly the Pittsburgh Steelers did not.  Third (or fourth) receiver Chris Hogan was free and clear early and often in the Steelers secondary and made the AFC North Champions pay.  He led all receivers in the AFC Championship Game with 9 receptions and 180 yards.  With a long of only 39 yards, he literally chipped away at the Steelers secondary with no mercy.  His two touchdowns were the first two of the game for New England putting the team up by 11 in the 2nd quarter.  From bit part to featured star, the Atlanta Falcons now have an extra dimension to worry about in Super Bowl LI.  Chris Hogan is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2015-16 NFL Conference Championship Playoff Preview

Sticking with favorites Straight Up has paid off so far, not as much on the ATS or O/U.  The second week of playoffs was a near push, but after missing all three elements on the first game (had the Chiefs winning and the under), went 2-1 each on the next three games.

To recap, each week of the NFL Playoffs, I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and keep track of my overall (certainly) winnings straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $110 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $100 on the underdog, or the money line value on the favorite (to win $100)

Week 2
S/U: 3-1 (+$200)
ATS: 1-3 (-$230)
O/U: 2-2 (-$20)
Total: -$50

Through two weeks
S/U: 7-1 (+$600)
ATS: 2-6 (-$460)
O/U: 5-3 (+$170)
Total: +$310

Betting information VegasInsider.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

January 24, 2016: 15:05 EST
New England Patriots (-3, -165) at Denver Broncos (+3, +145) O/U 44.5

New England Patriots (13-4)
Last seven games:  3-4
Road: 5-3 (avg score NE 27 vs. Opp 22)
Against Playoff teams: 3-1 (1-1 on road)
Key Injuries: TE Rob Gronkowski (questionable), WR Danny Amendola (questionable), WR Julian Edelman (questionable)

Denver Broncos (13-4)
Last nine games: 5-4
Home: 7-2 (avg score Den 22 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 5-2 (4-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

According to reports, a lot of money is going on the Patriots in this one.  Some lines are 3.5 but the consensus was 3 points.  Brady and company looked impressive on both sides of the ball against Kansas City, but remember how hard it is to win on the road in the playoffs (lest us not forget the rare air either).  Denver's defense is still underrated (Patriots D probably is, too).  The Broncos offense looked rusty last week with Manning at the helm, but I still see a low scoring victory here.  The Patriots have lost their last two road games, coughing up home field down the stretch.  For all the grief Manning gets, this could be his second AFC title in 3 years in Denver.  My only hesitation is that the coaching matchup is huge for Belichick; not sure Kubiak is up to matching wits.  I still think the Broncos move on.

Final Prediction: Broncos 24 Patriots 20

January 24, 2016: 18:40 EST
Arizona Cardinals (+3, +145) at Carolina Panthers (-3, -165) O/U 47.5


Arizona Cardinals (14-3)
Last ten games: 10-1
Road: 6-2 (avg score Ari 33 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 5-2 (1-1 on road)
Key Injuries: None

Carolina Panthers (16-1)
Last three games: 2-1 (after a 14-0 start)
Home: 9-0 (avg score Car 33 vs. Opp 18)
Against Playoff teams: 5-0 (4-0 at home)
Key Injuries: DE Jared Allen (Out)

This one seems way too close on the books than it should be.  Again, the Panthers are 16-1, simply one of the best records in recent memory.  They're at home against a warm weather team in cold weather.  The Cardinals muddled their way to victory last week against a mediocre (by Packers standards) opponent.  Carson Palmer looked very shaky and this defense is much better than last week's opposing D.  The Cardinals might have left all their emotion on the field after the see saw finale.  I don't see the Cardinals getting a running game going against the Panthers front seven.  Carolina meanwhile can score on the ground, through the air, or just letting Newton do his magic.  Do not fret about the second half letdown last week, remember that was a Seahawks team that was the best defense in the league and almost a pick'em game.  This matchup is very strong for Carolina, easy win here.

Final Prediction: Panthers 28 Cardinals 10

If I had to pick the three "best bets" (3-3 so far) it would be:
Panthers: ATS
Panthers: S/U
Cardinals vs. Panthers: Under

Super Bowl Live Coverage

Courtesy of Generation Chatter and CoveritLive, we bring you live coverage of Super Bowl XLVI:

Super Bowl Prediction

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site)

February 5, 2012: 18:29 EST
New York Giants (+2.5, +123) vs. New England Patriots (-2.5, -143) O/U 53.5
A rematch of the regular season and recent Super Bowl. The Packers unpredicted implosion withstanding, this matchup represents the best two teams right now. Statistically the two worst defenses in Super Bowl History (375+ yards given up per game). But the Manning/Brady rematch, New York vs. Boston sports rivalry, ghosts of David Tyree's catch, Manning's scramble, Brady's legacy all hang in the balance. But let's get to the X's and O's.

I have some concerns about the Gronkowski injury. That being said, Aaron Hernandez has stepped up and made plays all over the place. The Giants running game took a step or two forward a few weeks ago, but now looks lost again. I think Belichick can exploit this and formulate a game plan to slow the Giants offense. The real key to the game is Brady's protection against that determined Giants offensive line. And whether the Giants "bend but don't break" offense has success defending in the red zone. In the end, I think they do. Brady's been a little more sloppy with the ball than I've seen the past few years, and he's going to be getting off the turf a lot and maybe forcing the ball. Little Manning gets his second title and this is the last Brady appearance in the Super Bowl. Final Prediction: Giants 23, Patriots 21.

Gambling summary :

Week one moved my cash from 1200 (100 per betting prop) to 1470 (big $$ on the Broncos money line). Second week was a push ending at 1492. The next week was huge, hitting 5 of 6 props (up 324) on the Conference Championships moving to 1816. I'm tempted to introduce more props in lieu of Super Bowl tradition but will stick to the money line, ATS, and O/U. All New York, and under.