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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Saturday, January 19, 2013

2012 NFL Week Three Playoff Preview

If Week 1 didn't go well, then Week 2 was nothing short of a disaster. Day 1, I went 0-6 on bets including the painful Denver straight up at a high cost (-$4,200).  Day 2, I almost broke even going 3-3.  Overall losses = -$9,900.  Combine with the -6,600 from week one and it's -$16,500.  Wow.  Good thing I'm a rich oilman.

I'm almost proud of the fact that I'm 0-8 ATS this postseason, you have to try to be THAT bad!  So take that into account when analyzing the below!

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

January 20, 2013: 15:00 EST
San Francisco 49ers (-4, -190) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+4, +175) O/U 48.5
Reigning Sportsman of the Week Colin Kaepernick answered all questions last week and has set the standard for dual threat quarterbacks.  The Falcons pushed to a big lead, then coasted the 2nd half, almost like they didn't know how to turn it on, until the furious finish.  I'm going to lean toward the home team, here, despite their inexperience in this role.  Matt Ryan looks the part of a big game QB, the Falcons are balanced and with new tape on Kaepernick, perhaps they'll have a scheme to slow him down.  Final Prediction: Falcons 31, 49ers 30.

January 20, 2013: 18:30 EST
Baltimore Ravens (+8, +325) vs. New England Patriots (-8, -360) O/U 51.5
This is a case of the unstoppable offense (New England) and the immovable linebacker (Ray Lewis, who just won't retire).  Vegas and fans seem to think the Patriots can simply repeat what they did last week in terms of offensive production, but without injured Gronkowski and Woodhead, the Ravens should be able to match up much better.  It will be close, but the Patriots still have too many weapons.  Final Prediction: Patriots 33, Ravens 28.

For fake gambling purposes, I assume $1,000 on underdog S/U, minus amount on favorite S/U, $1,100 on ATS + O/U on the above bets (3 per game, 6 total).

If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:

Both Games Over

Falcons S/U

Recapping the first two week's Titanic level disaster, I'm now 0/8 ATS, 3/8 S/U and 3/8 for Over/Under.  By my calculations, -$16,500 as stated above.  Just trying to stem losses at this point!

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