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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Friday, January 11, 2013

2012 NFL Week Two Playoff Preview


Week 1 didn't go so well, but we're back on the horse for another rodeo!  Two of my bets were pretty much out the window when Ponder didn't answer the bell (Vikings over and cover).

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

January 12, 2013: 16:30 EST
Baltimore Ravens (+9.5, +375) vs. Denver Broncos (-9.5, -420) O/U 46.5
To me, the Broncos are a hot ball of knives rolling downhill with only warm butter in the way to stop them.  The Ravens are warm butter.  And Peyton Manning is a surgeon, questions about his health are completely abated at this point.  And the defense and running game of the Broncos have come to playoff level.  This won't be close. Final Prediction: Broncos 31, Ravens 13.

January 12, 2013: 20:00 EST
Green Bay Packers (+2.5, +135) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, -145) O/U 45
One of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend, a veteran, MVP QB vs. a guy who came on late and may save the 49ers season from mediocrity.  But I'm not thinking so.  The Packers seemed more or less disinterested in the regular season unless it was a big game.  This is a big one, and the Packers will come ready to rumble.  They have a lot of offensive weapons and the defense is good enough.  It will come down to a winning drive, and Rodgers will lead the drive.  Final Prediction: Packers 20, 49ers 17.

January 13, 2013: 13:00 EST
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +120) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -130) O/U 46
I actually flopped on this one, my first inclination was to take the Seahawks as the gutsy team of destiny.  But then realized they were about to be blown out of FedEx last week until RGIII was disabled (or at least neutralized).  The Seahawks are on a great run, but going to the home of the #1 seed in the NFC and only being given a couple of points.  I think the Falcons have grown up, and with the home game, will roll here. Final Prediction: Falcons 27, Seahawks 17.

January 13, 2013: 16:30 EST
Houston Texans (+9, +365) vs. New England Patriots (-9, -410) O/U 47.5
The Texans sure get beat up a lot for being frauds, overrated, mediocre, etc.  Some of it deserved, but the talent is there in all phases.  That being said, Brady and co. are rested and healthy and present a lot of matchup problems for the Texans defense (that actually looked good last week).  All that being said, I like the Patriots but in a close one.  If anything, the Monday Night Massacre (that started the Texans tailspin) reminds them what not to do. Final Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 24.

For fake gambling purposes, I'll assume $1,000 on underdog S/U, minus amount on favorite S/U, $1,100 on ATS + O/U on the above bets (3 per game, 12 total).  If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:

Packers vs. 49ers: under
Broncos: ATS
Packers: S/U

Recapping the first week's disaster, I got 0/4 ATS, 1/4 S/U (Packers, the only favorite I picked) and split the Over/Under.  That doesn't bode well.  By my calculations, -$6,600.  But plenty of time to catch up!

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