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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Saturday, January 5, 2013

2012 NFL Week One Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

JR Ewing is back for more gambling.  Took a bath in the College Football regular season, but recouped some in the Bowl Season.   It's time for every sports fans favorite time of year, the NFL Playoffs!  Each week (hopefully earlier than Saturday) I'll preview the games, predict final scores (and oh, by the way, see how the straight up, ATS, and O/U bets go).

Without further ado!

January 5, 2013: 16:30 EST
Cincinnati Bengals (+4, +183) vs. Houston Texans (-4, -198) O/U 42.5
A rematch of this exact time slot last year, with the same points spread roughly.  This time, Matt Schaub is healthy, but certainly not hitting on all cylinders.  The Bengals are somewhat of a hot team now (winning 7 of their last 8, but only one of those wins over a playoff team).  The Texans are ice cold, blowing home field advantage in the last two weeks and losing 3 of their last 4.  I think the collapse completes as the Bengals use last years loss as motivation to upset the reeling Texans. Final Prediction: Bengals 23 Texans 14.

January 5, 2013: 20:00 EST
Minnesota Vikings (+7.5, +330) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -370) O/U 45.5
The Packers didn't figure to lose that much fire power from last year, but a few injuries and some ineffectiveness have rendered this team a little more ordinary than usual.  Another team that blew home field last week might weigh on their minds as they could be sitting at home watching the 49ers have to play this game.  Meanwhile, the Vikings had to play their way in winning 4 in a row, the last two over playoff teams on the road.  And Adrian Peterson is good and on a mission and Green Bay has struggled to stop him.  It's hard enough to win in Green Bay, but to do it twice in 7 days is near impossible.  This one is close, but Green Bay pulls it out. Final Prediction: Packers 27 Vikings 24.

January 6, 2013: 13:00 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+7, +265) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7, -295) O/U 47
Following the theme above, the road team underdog (Indianapolis) won 5 of 6 to secure the Wild Card easily.  The Ravens, injured on defense and struggling on offense, have lost 4 of 5.  And, note, have a worse record than the Colts.  The Colts got an emotional lift from the return of Chuck Pagano last week (#chuckstrong) while the Ravens will get a boost from Ray Lewis and his retirement announcement.  I'm just not feeling the Ravens in this one, the Colts look like a team that is peaking and are probably the 3rd best AFC team. Final Prediction: Colts 24, Ravens 14.

January 6, 2013: 16:30 EST
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, -143) vs. Washington Redskins (+2.5, +133) O/U 46.5
Two red hot teams here, Seahawks have won 5 straight and 7 of 8, the Redskins have won 7 straight since their bye week.  There are some questions about RGIII's health and ability to run, but other than that, not much to not like about either of these teams.  Both have rookie QB's so no advantage there.  Very tough to call, I like the Redskins to eek one out at home behind a hungry crowd.  Final Prediction: Redskins 27, Seahawks 24.

For fake gambling purposes, I'll assume $1,000 on S/U, $1,100 on ATS + O/U on the above bets (3 per game, 12 total).  If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:
Bengals: Money Line
Colts: ATS
Vikings vs. Packers: Over

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