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Friday, September 9, 2016

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 9/24/2016

I'm tired of being pushed around, time to win
Well a so-so week of proverbially kissing my sister, with a 2-2-1 effort.  Shocking losses for the Sooners and Seminoles submarined my genius picks involving my home state teams of Texas A+M and Texas. 

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-2-1 (-20)
Season: 7-7-1 (-$70, always remember the house take, folks)

Conference season starts for the most part this week, with a lot of good SEC matchups (as always).  I like to pick games a TD or less b/c luck of how much a team wins by is reduced.  My stay away from game of the week is wrecked Florida State traveling to South Florida.  Just a six point favorite, the 'Noles are headed to a red hot 3-0 team that's had this game circled.  But let's move to the games you SHOULD actually pick.

Here are your five winners of the week:

Michigan (-18) vs Penn State (Noon EDT)

Michigan has been a winning and covering machine.  Penn State just isn't up to speed yet, giving up 69 points their last two games (and they weren't playing ranked teams).  Michigan was rough to start last week vs. Colorado but won going away.  Seems like even the large point spread will be no match.

Tennessee (-6.5) vs Florida (3:30 p.m. EDT)

A series dominated by Florida makes for a very hungry Tennessee squad.  This is the first of their revenge games (Alabama the next).  Florida is banged up at quarterback and is talent deficient in this matchup.  The caveat is how bad Tennessee has looked so far.  But I think they put their best game together and win by a TD (or more).
Auburn (+3.5) vs Louisiana State (7:00 p.m. EDT)

This is mostly an anti-LSU pick.  They haven't gotten anything going (0-3 ATS) and now travel to hostile Auburn who is a wounded lion after a decisive loss to a sharp Texas A+M team.  They will play with desperation and I just don't think LSU is that good.

Stanford (-3) at UCLA (8:00 p.m. EDT)

Two teams expected to contend for the Pac 12 title and both have shown strength.  Stanford with Christian McCaffrey just looks like a more complete team.  Pac 12 road teams usually aren't phased by the relatively laid back crowds.  Stanford hasn't won by fewer than 10 points and that will likely continue.  And you get a push for a last second winning FG.

Texas A+M (-6) vs. Arkansas (9:00 p.m. EDT)

Since joining the SEC, Texas A+M is 4-0 against the Hogs winning all games by 7 points or more.  And those weren't bad Arkansas teams, this years' squad may not stack up.  Meanwhile the Aggies are rolling and have covered every spread so far this season.  This could be close and the Aggies could still cover.

Have a great football weekend!

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