Sportsman of the Week Ending 7/26/2026

The late summer sports season is upon us, and while all four golf majors have been finished for the year, that doesn't mean the season is over.  And a surprise winner emerged on the PGA Tour in only his third professional start.  At the age of 21.  Jackson Koivun held off the best player in the world in Scottie Sheffler to win the 3M Open at Twin Cities TPC in a record 25 strokes under par.  The Auburn golfer didn't flinch as Scheffler charged showing nerves that will serve him well in his burgeoning pro career.  His win by three strokes took away drama at the end, but he earned it with his steady play over the four days.  Earning a smooth $1.5M in the process.  Is this the first of many PGA Tour wins?  Inevitable.  Will he be the next star on the Tour?  Stay tuned.  But for now, Jackson Koivun is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week! 

Sportsman of the Week Ending 3/30/2025

March Madness swings into the second weekend and the top seed just keep winning.  All four Number 1 seeds made the NCAA Men's Tournament Final Four, and Auburn was a part of it.  Led by Johni Broome.  Broome torched the state of Michigan, with two performances of 22+ points and 14+ rebounds.  And in an efficient 30 minutes per game.  The Auburn Tigers reached their first Final Four since 2019 (and only their second in history) with a thrilling comeback victory against the Michigan Wolverines (78-65) and Michigan State Spartans (79-64).  The former was more of a challenge with Auburn trailing by 8 points midway through the second half.  Johni to the rescue.  Auburn looks to continue its run behind the broad shoulders and strong play of Johne Broome, the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 3/31/2019

The Madness of March is dying down now that we're in April, but the Auburn Tigers have redefined the role of unexpected party-crasher.  Having beat the Big 12 powerhouse Kansas in the second round of the NCAA tournament, they faced the top seeded ACC North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sweet 16.  Led by Jared Harper and 11 assists and 9 points in 25 minutes, the Tigers separated quickly from Carolina for a 97-80 victory.  But it was in the Elite 8 against another powerhouse and fellow SEC rival Kentucky that Harper really shined.  He poured in 26 points, highlighted by 11-11 from the free throw line (and 12 points in overtime out of his team's 17 total) to defeat the Cats and avenge their last loss on February 23.  Yes.  They haven't lost in over a month.  The Tigers look poised to beat their next Goliath and it will be on the leadership of our Sportsman of the Week, Jared Harper!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 12/3/2017

The college football season ended with a climax as for the first time in the College Football Playoff era, all Power Five conferences had a title game.  Two were presumably winner gets in, two had a higher ranked team that needed to get in, and one was not going to matter.  Well, in one where the winner gets in (a de facto Round of 8 game), the Georgia Bulldogs punched their ticket to the playoffs and won the SEC for the first time since 2005.  And it was a defensive player that led them.  Roquan Smith was the man of the match.  From sideline to sideline, he kept Auburn's offense at bay.  He finished the day with 13 tackles, including a sack, and had two fumble recoveries.  The Auburn offense could only muster 7 points (none after their first possession) and 259 total yards. Running it, 3.7 yards per play. Passing it, only 4.5 yards per play.  While Georgia heads to the Rose Bowl College Playoff Semifinal matchup against Oklahoma, Smith walked away with the SEC Championship Game MVP and is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 9/24/2016

I'm tired of being pushed around, time to win

Well a so-so week of proverbially kissing my sister, with a 2-2-1 effort.  Shocking losses for the Sooners and Seminoles submarined my genius picks involving my home state teams of Texas A+M and Texas. 

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-2-1 (-20)
Season: 7-7-1 (-$70, always remember the house take, folks)

Conference season starts for the most part this week, with a lot of good SEC matchups (as always).  I like to pick games a TD or less b/c luck of how much a team wins by is reduced.  My stay away from game of the week is wrecked Florida State traveling to South Florida.  Just a six point favorite, the 'Noles are headed to a red hot 3-0 team that's had this game circled.  But let's move to the games you SHOULD actually pick.

Here are your five winners of the week:

Michigan (-18) vs Penn State (Noon EDT)

Michigan has been a winning and covering machine.  Penn State just isn't up to speed yet, giving up 69 points their last two games (and they weren't playing ranked teams).  Michigan was rough to start last week vs. Colorado but won going away.  Seems like even the large point spread will be no match.

Tennessee (-6.5) vs Florida (3:30 p.m. EDT)

A series dominated by Florida makes for a very hungry Tennessee squad.  This is the first of their revenge games (Alabama the next).  Florida is banged up at quarterback and is talent deficient in this matchup.  The caveat is how bad Tennessee has looked so far.  But I think they put their best game together and win by a TD (or more).
Auburn (+3.5) vs Louisiana State (7:00 p.m. EDT)

This is mostly an anti-LSU pick.  They haven't gotten anything going (0-3 ATS) and now travel to hostile Auburn who is a wounded lion after a decisive loss to a sharp Texas A+M team.  They will play with desperation and I just don't think LSU is that good.

Stanford (-3) at UCLA (8:00 p.m. EDT)

Two teams expected to contend for the Pac 12 title and both have shown strength.  Stanford with Christian McCaffrey just looks like a more complete team.  Pac 12 road teams usually aren't phased by the relatively laid back crowds.  Stanford hasn't won by fewer than 10 points and that will likely continue.  And you get a push for a last second winning FG.

Texas A+M (-6) vs. Arkansas (9:00 p.m. EDT)

Since joining the SEC, Texas A+M is 4-0 against the Hogs winning all games by 7 points or more.  And those weren't bad Arkansas teams, this years' squad may not stack up.  Meanwhile the Aggies are rolling and have covered every spread so far this season.  This could be close and the Aggies could still cover.

Have a great football weekend!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/30/2014

Thanksgiving and football and synonymous and this Thanksgiving was no exception.  For college football that means rivalries.  Perhaps the biggest college football rivalry and game this weekend was Alabama vs. Auburn.  The offensive starts shined, but none more than Crimson Tide WR Amari Cooper.  The junior tied season highs with 13 receptions for 224 yards and 3 TD leading the Tide to a 55-44 win propelling to team to yet another SEC Title game.  All this while playing with a bruised knee.  The future NFL star looked like a man among boys and is our Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2013 BCS vs. Playoff analysis, which would be the most fair?

Have you ever heard the expression "be careful what you wish for?"  This season, college football narrowly avoided much more controversy than it ended up with in the BCS Championship Game, in which there are few doubts that the two teams belong and should be playing for a title.  A few weeks ago, I analyzed how a four-team, and eight-team would have stacked up with the BCS (two-team) playoff the past three seasons, and four-team did the worst (as measured by controversy of excluding teams and being the most equitable) as compared to two-team and eight-team.  I think 2013 would have just piled on that conclusion.

For reference, here were the final BCS Standings (recognizing these won't be used exclusively going forward, but provide some reference to how teams rank in human and computer polls).
Final BCS Standings Top 10
1. Florida State (13-0) .9957
2. Auburn (12-1) .9638
3. Alabama (11-1) .9061
4. Michigan State (12-1) .8600
5. Stanford (11-2) .8191
6. Baylor (11-1) .7722
7. Ohio State (12-1) .7705
8. Missouri (11-2) .7256
9. South Carolina (10-2) .7152
10. Oregon (10-2) .5811

Nobody can argue Florida State, as the only undefeated team in college football, is the clear #1 seed no matter what playoff system we use. 

Few are arguing that Auburn isn't the clear #2.  As much as Alabama wants to argue they have style points over the whole season, a win on the field prevails and Auburn is the best one-loss team (despite a 2 TD loss earlier in the season).

The BCS gave us a clear-cut two teams, will we be
as lucky to avoid controversy next year?

Now things get more complicated.  The next five teams are either a one-loss conference champion (Michigan State, Baylor), a one-loss non-champ to a team above them (Ohio State and Alabama), or a two-loss Stanford team that played the toughest schedule (according to Sagarin, all SOS going forward will reference this).

The case for each:
Alabama - one loss in the last second, on the road, to a rival.  Despite playing in the SEC, the out of conference schedule wasn't too challenging, plus they played the two worst teams from the East (Kentucky and Tennessee), leading to a 46th overall strength-of-schedule.  The team only played four road games (lost to Auburn, great game at Texas A&M, then easy wins at Mississippi State and Kentucky).  They more than passed the eye test by only allowing more than 17 points twice (Texas A&M and Auburn).  They seemingly put up points with ease when they needed to, but didn't register video game numbers like others.

Alabama but for one play would be playing
for their third straight title

Michigan State - Nobody was talking about this team all year, because of their conference rival Ohio State's seemingly foregone conference title.  The Spartans struggled early in the season with offense, but found a rhythm late, including plenty against the Buckeyes.  Michigan State's SOS is 56, but not real big wins outside of the Big 10 Conference Championship Game.  Their only loss was narrow (and low scoring) at Notre Dame, oh to have that game back.  This team isn't big on the eye test, but the win over OSU helps (see a theme here).  Their biggest win BESIDES that one would probably have to be, uhhhh, Iowa?

Michigan State finally got a signature win against
the Ohio State Buckeyes to win the Big 10

Stanford - Two losses is the condemning factor here.  But they won the Pac 12, the highest rated conference according to Sagarin.  And finished with the 4th toughest schedule in the country, far and away the best in the BCS Top 10 (Auburn #20 is closest).  Their biggest win was Oregon, then Arizona State twice, UCLA, and Notre Dame (much better than Michigan State down the line).  Oh but the two losses, both on the road by a combined 9 points, but to enigma USC (forgivable) and then Utah (unforgivable).  Without the Utah loss I think it's clear cut.  With it, I have trouble putting them above the stiff competition discussed here.  They eye test is solid, when they're good, they look like they could beat anybody.

Stanford danced all over tough competition, but lost
to a bad Utah team

Ohio State - After Auburn beat Alabama, the Buckeyes had the inside track to the BCS Championship Game.  Then lost (and was really beaten) by the above Michigan State.  With a similar SOS to Michigan State (#57), they fit the same bill.  An impressive win against Wisconsin, but after that, once again, Iowa looks like their best quality opponent.  And they almost lost to Michigan but for a 2-point conversion stop.  The eye test is what carries them, lots of athletes on the field and they can score with ease.  Suspect defense causes some trepidation if they were to play a team like FSU or Auburn.

Ohio State has the same problem as Alabama, wrong
loss at the wrong time to lose the conference

Baylor - Nobody gives the Bears near as much credit for their 11-1 run vs. the above resumes.  Maybe it's their SOS at 61, the worst among the group.  But they did win their conference (two of the above didn't).  Their loss was the ugliest of the lot, blown out (and exposed) on the road to Oklahoma State in a game that was never close.  Their most impressive wins were blowout wins over Texas and Oklahoma (who would have thought we would be saying that ten years ago).  The eye test is valid, they put up points in a hurry and can run or pass and play better defense than given credit for.  It's just a matter of how much one bad day penalizes you.

The high-flying Big 12 Champ Bears resume may not
stack up against other conference champs

So two of these five would make the four-team playoff.  If it's conference titles you lean toward then it's two of Michigan State, Stanford, and Baylor.  If you want the best eye test, it's probably Stanford and Alabama.  If you want the best TV ratings or fans that travel, it's probably Alabama and Ohio State.  If you're drinking the SEC punch, it's Alabama and Missouri (or South Carolina).

What I think the committee would do: Add Alabama and Michigan State.  Stanford's two losses eliminate them, and Baylor's SOS eliminates them.  Ohio State can't get in over Michigan State and wouldn't over Alabama.  The committee keeps sword-rattling that SOS is important, though, would that carry Stanford?  Either way, tough questions for the committee at the presser after the decision was made.

What I would do: All conference champions.  Stanford is in because of SOS in the best conference.  Then Michigan State because of closer loss (than Baylor) and slightly better best win (Ohio State vs. Oklahoma).

Who I think are the best four teams in the nation: Florida State, Auburn, Alabama, and Stanford.

It will be interesting who the committee reconciles that.

If there were an eight team playoff, who I would add: Story for another blog.  Next two up are Missouri and South Carolina, the latter beat the former, but the former won the SEC East.  Would also be a third SEC team, is that fair?  Oregon suffered a BAD loss to Arizona.  Off that Top 10 is Oklahoma (ugly losses to Texas and Baylor).  And American Athletic Conference Champion Central Florida, just one loss, but to the aforementioned South Carolina.  I'd just give FSU a first round bye.  But if I had to pick, South Carolina by virtue of head-to-head over Missouri (and quality out-of-conference wins vs. Central Florida, ACC powerhouse Clemson, and bowl participant North Carolina in addition to an SEC schedule).

How would this Eight-team playoff look to you?

So going back to the rankings I gave the fairness of the systems in the previous blog
BCS: A (not perfectly clear, but pretty close)
4-team: C- (there are good teams not in)
8-team: B- (just the eighth team is hard to rectify).

As I said, be careful what you wish for.  Anybody who thinks a four-team playoff will be better may not have thought it through.

Six Keys to picking the 2013-14 Bowl season (and BCS Title Game Preview)

Beginning today, there will be 35 Division 1 Football Bowl Subdivision Bowl games in 16 days as the 2013-2014 College Football season ends with a flourish.  All the games are more or less set up to match similarly talented teams, giving analysts a field day in their predictions.  Much like March Madness, experts and novices alike love to fill out their bowl picks, compare, contrast, cheer for teams they've never cheered for before, and maybe gamble a little money in the process.  Well if it's gambling, then J.R. Ewing (that's me) has you covered.  Here we look at six major factors that don't usually figure into picking regular season games, analyze the BCS Championship Game in Pasadena, then go into a Top 5 "Best Bets."  Remembering that this year is the before a four-team playoff begins next season.


1. How did we end up here?

When the dust settles and bowl invitations are distributed, there's always a few teams excited at the opportunity, and more than a few who didn't want to be there.  Whether they lost a game they shouldn't have, or to a rival, or just got a raw deal, this factors into teams' performance.  Three teams that immediately come to mind in the latter category are the Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Oregon Ducks.

Michigan State sent Ohio State to their first loss under
Urban Meyer

Ohio State was 60 minutes and a slight favorite to win the Big 10 Championship, but was upset in the title game by a tough Michigan State Spartans squad.  Interestingly, Michigan State was probably Pasadena-bound (Rose Bowl) win or lose,  But they won if nothing else to spoil their rivals hopes of a BCS Title game shot (Conference Title games are still a good idea, right)?  Now the Buckeyes are headed to the Orange Bowl in Miami instead to face a hungry Clemson Tigers team who just two years ago were humiliated in this same venue when they lost to West Virginia giving up 70 points.  On top of that, this is the first Ohio State loss in two years and the first under Urban Meyer.  Will they come out hungry?  I think not.  Despite being a two - three point favorite, I go with the Tigers (+115) straight up.

Alabama likewise were playing for their own fate to punch their ticket to Pasadena.  In fact, the were just an overtime away from an SEC title game berth as they saw their hopes slip away on that improbable 100+ yard field goal attempt return derail their push, this time, with no recovery with one-loss as in the past two years.  Now at home and stewing, how will they respond to a plain old Sugar Bowl berth against the Oklahoma Sooners?  Nick Saban has consistently coached this team to success after losses, twice to win National Championships after the season settled out.  Saban gets his teams attention after losses.  I look for the Tide to bounce back behind A.J. McCarron and easily cover the 15 points spread.

The biggest obstacle experts thought might keep Oregon from the BCS Championship Game were if there were too many undefeated teams.  Oregon should have kept their heads down and taken care of their own business, but suffered two defeats to the eventual Pac 12 Title game participants.  They looked attractive as a potential BCS at-large, but fell all the way to the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio to play an unranked (and lame duck coach, no pun intended) team in the Texas Longhorns.  How excited are they going to be after playing in the BCS for four straight seasons?  I'm not sure, nor am I sure how Texas will respond to their circumstances, so I'm calling the Alamo Bowl a "no play".

2. My Kingdom for a healthy QB

Despite the month or longer break to get healthy, several teams are without season-long starting quarterbacks headed into their bowl game.  The good news is that they have two full practice weeks to adjust their plays.  The bad news is that the other team gets two weeks to look at tape and perhaps throw in some defensive wrinkles to test that inexperience.  This is not as big a deal as you might expect, over one game, good QBs can play badly, mediocre QBs can excel.  Garrett Gilbert almost led the Longhorns to victory after Colt McCoy was hurt in the 2009 BCS Championship game.  Heisman winners Geno Toretta and Chris Weinke both pitched duds in title games.  So all is not lost, but three teams that fit this description are LSU, Georgia, and Texas Tech

The LSU Tigers will be without their NFL-bound QB
Zach Metternburger in the Outback Bowl

LSU senior QB, and NFL prospect Zach Mettenberger went down at the very end of the Tigers regular season finale against rival Arkansas.  Anthony Jennings jumped right in to lead the Tigers to a last minute thrilling victory.  LSU has talent all over the offensive field, particularly at skill positions.  They'll face an Iowa team in the Outback Bowl that is physically overmatched.  I expect Jennings to keep it steady and do just enough for the Tigers.  Against the 8 points, I'd probably take Iowa, but probably a "no play" on this one.

The Georgia Bulldogs lost the SEC's all time leading passer (yes, more than all Mannings, Tebows, Wuerffels) Aaron Murray to a knee injury late in the season.  The Bulldogs overcame a slow start to defeat rival Georgia Tech with Hutson Mason at the helm throwing for nearly 300 yards and 2 TD.  Now he faces an unsteady Nebraska defense that struggled to resemble the black shirts of years past.  Much like the LSU Tigers, I see Georgia winning but would probably see Nebraska covering.  Another "no play" here.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders started off the season 7-0 and a Top 10 ranking with what seemed (at the time) to be impressive wins against West Virginia and TCU.  Then they played the other five bowl teams from the Big 12 and lost all five all by a TD or more as West Virginia and TCU both scuffled to disappointing seasons.  While their QB for most the season, walk-on freshman Baker Mayfield, is healthy, he's seeking a transfer after rotating a lot during their final stretch of losses and feeling out of place in Lubbock.  There are two QBs in Kliff Kingsbury's stable, but it's not going to matter.  Pac 12 South winner Arizona State will roll over the Red Raiders in the Holiday Bowl.  Two touchdowns are not near enough, take the Sun Devils all the way to the bank!

3. Show me a QB with experience and I'll show you a winning QB.

A long delay between the final regular season (or conference title) game and the bowl game can lead to rust, uneven play, or mental mistakes in the bowl game.  These can steamroll quickly if not for on-field leadership to calm the tide.  I like experience QBs, particularly those playing in their final college game, as something reliable to play on in the bowl season.  Look no further than seasoned veterans John Manziel, A.J. McCarron, and Jordan Lynch.

Manziel led the Aggies to a laugher against OU
last year in the Cotton Bowl

John Manziel, a.k.a. Johnny Football, has only played two season but has a ton of experience.  Two epic battles against Alabama, huge comeback wins, some injuries, yet no defense behind him.  And, of course, a Heisman.  Texas A&M has a more formidable opponent than most people realize in the Duke Blue Devils in the Chick Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta.  Note that Duke has 10 wins and won the ACC Coastal Division.  With coach David Cutcliffe at the helm, the Blue Devils will be innovative on offense and test the porous Aggies defense.  But Manziel, with a month to heal from some bumps and bruises he had late in the season, should be able to answer.  At a point spread of fewer than two TDs, I take the Aggies here, behind Manziel.  The Chick Fil-A bowl is used to big crowds because of its geography near the ACC and SEC participants, it will be interesting to see if Duke travels for a bowl game, and if Texas A&M fans (a bit further than a Georgia or Auburn or South Carolina) storm Atlanta to see their QB play his final game (presuming he turns pro).

A.J. McCarron has done just about nothing but win his entire career at Alabama as he currently sits at 36-3 as a starter.  As the Heisman runner-up, he'll wrap up his career in the Sugar Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners.  A leader like he is just the guy to help the Tide rebound from their only loss of the season and easily Roll over the Sooners.  As stated above, take Alabama and give the points.

Northern Illinois could also qualify as a team disappointed in their bowl destination.  Having dropped the MAC Championship Game, instead of getting the Big 12 Champion Baylor Bears in Glendale, they'll draw a tough Utah State squad in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.  The game is a near Pick'em, but I'm putting my faith in the Heisman finalist Lynch to put his team on his back and rebound from their only regular season loss.  Take them straight up (near pick'em anyway).

4. My Conference is better than yours!

Pundits usually use the Bowl season as their litmus test for conference strength. It's not quite as easy as wins and losses, but you certianly want to know which conferences led to teams with records not indicative of a potential record in other conference.  Here we look at the SEC, Big 12, and ACC and how they stack up.

The Big 12 had a down year.  Last year they had nine bowl teams (out of ten), this year only six, and a couple are suspect (I'm talking about you Texas Tech and Kansas State).  TCU, West Virginia, and Iowa State took huge steps back.  The conference has a very tough draw, with their champion Baylor facing the fifth best opponent (out of six) per the final BCS standings (UCF, #15).  They also face #3 Alabama, #8 Missouri, #10 Oregon, and #14 Arizona State (unranked Michigan the other).  All are double digit underdogs except Oklahoma State facing Missouri in the Cotton Bowl.  The former Big 12 (and Big 8) rivals are familiar with each other and will be out to prove conference strength.  At the end of the day, Oklahoma State didn't play as tough a schedule as Missouri and will likely get exposed.  At a near pick'em, take the Missouri Tigers.  The Big 12 has only won one Cotton Bowl against the SEC in the last nine contests, and that was no team other than Missouri.

The SEC usually gets to best of the Big 12, this trend is likely to continue

The SEC probably was a little weaker than expected (sky high expectations, but still).  With Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and LSU not reaching preseason expectations.  That, and the combined conference record of 2-22 for doormats Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee and it wasn't as hard for teams like South Carolina and Missouri to emerge as the beasts of the East.  An intriguing matchup is Vanderbilt Commodors vs. Houston Cougars in the BBVA Compass Bowl; how does a 4-4 Commodore team (SEC tested) without their starting QB match up with a 5-3 AAC opponent in Houston?  Houston hung tough with teams like BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Louisville in close losses.  They might have a surprise for Vandy, I'm picking the Cougars straight up (+120).  The last time we saw the Cougars in postseason action they beat Penn State so they're not intimidated by higher profile foes.

The ACC is finally looking like a conference worthy of the same conversation as the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, or Pac 12.  Mostly considered the 5th out of those in the last decade (no title game appearances in forever and very few BCS wins).  We'll get to the title game (and FSU) in a minute, I touched on expected Clemson success and Duke challenges above.  Another bellwether game is Georgia Tech against Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl.  Georgia Tech can't beat an SEC team to save their lives.  Georgia Tech was 5-3 in the ACC, Ole Miss 3-5 in the SEC.  Vegas calls it a 3 point favorite for Ole Miss.  I think they handle Georgia Tech with ease, book this one for the Rebels and give the 3 points.

5. I recognize these people, they are my fans!

Bowl games are always likely to try to pull a local team in to guarantee some ticket sales and keep up local interest.  An example where this didn't happen was the Houston Bowl, featuring Minnesota and Syracuse (sellout unlikely).  Where it did work well, was the Texas Longhorns playing within 100 miles of campus in San Antonio, the North Carolina Tar Heels playing in state at Charlotte, and Rutgers playing at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York.

Mack Brown is 2-0 in Alamo Bowls will he finish his
Longhorn coaching career undefeated in SA?

The Texas Longhorns play at the Alamo Bowl for the second straight year.  For the third straight year, they come into their bowl game at 8-4 or 7-5.  This is not their expected success, and as a result Mack Brown is stepping down after 16 seasons.  As mentioned above, Oregon has a lot of motivation questions but way more talent than the Longhorns.  At the end of the day, as mentioned above, there are too many non-football factors to play.  But expect more orange on the River Walk than green.

North Carolina is one of the hotter teams in college football.  They went 5-1 after October 17 with just a narrow defeat to Coastal Division Champion (and arch rival) Duke Blue Devils.  They'll face a Cincinnati Bearcats team in the Belk Bowl that is good, but not that great.  Carolina scores a lot of points and is from a better conference and will win this one with ease.  As mild 2 point favorites, give the points and chuckle that bettors are scared off  by a 6-6 record (all losses were to bowl teams).

Notre Dame could easily qualify as a team that could say "I thought we would go somewhere warm this winter, why are we in New York City?"  But the Fighting Irish love big city games, like their upcoming matchup vs. Boston College at Fenway Park.  Brian Kelly is a great motivator coach and will certainly have his team up.  Across the field will be the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, just a short 50 miles and a tunnel drive from their Piscataway , NJ.  Since Notre Dame has a national following (not to mention a strong Catholic population in greater New York) there isn't that much of a home field advantage.  In fact, it might be more 50/50 by the time the dust settles.  It's 2 TDs for a point spread, I take the superior talented Irish.  My only concern is that Notre Dame frequently plays down to inferior opponents, but Rutgers really isn't that good.


6. Who is my coach?

Part of the bowl season is the fact that some programs have coaches that have left their program, others fired theirs because the bowl they are in isn't enough.  We've covered Texas enough, but Boise State, Washington, and Bowling Green have coaching shifts of this kind.  Obviously Southern California falls in this category, but is playing their game as I write this.

'Tis the season for introductions of new head coaches
(Petersen), bowl game of current team be damned

Boise State head coach Chris Petersen has moved on to coach Washington, (whose coach moved onto USC).  They'll bring back former offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin (most recently head coach at Arkansas State) but in the meantime have a manageable draw in the Hawaii Bowl against Oregon State (who endured a season in which they had a very tough schedule and lost most games they were supposed to lose).  Boise State is a system.  It has had good coaches, but the system and program gets them by.  I'm not sold on Oregon State, who hasn't won since October 19 in facing a gauntlet of Pac 12 powerhouses the second half of the season.  Oddly, Oregon State is giving points here, probably because of their effort against the Oregon Ducks.  Boise State loves playing bigger programs and will be focused, head coach or not.  Take the Broncos straight up at +130.

Washington Huskies are a good 8-4 team in a very good conference.  Losses were to outstanding teams as they will face BYU in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.  As an Independent, BYU played a very solid schedule, including Notre Dame, Texas, Boise State, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech (in all, eight bowl teams).  I feel like the Huskies aren't going to miss a beat without their coach and have a bright future with the Petersen hire.   I'm taking the Huskies and giving the 3 to 3.5 points.

Bowling Green changed the entire landscape of the BCS with their upset win over the Northern Illinois Huskies to win the MAC (Oklahoma Sooners give thanks).  Their reward is a Little Caesar's Bowl matchup with ACC middling Pittsburgh Panthers.  Poor Pitt, many will think.  But then Bowling Green's head coach leaves for the ACC's Wake Forest and I'm not sure this team can win two straight big games.  Pittsburgh played 9 bowl teams, including wins against Notre Dame and Duke.  Their worst loss might be Navy, not bad.  I think Pitt plays inspired against a so-so Bowling Green squad.  At +175, I'm taking the Panthers straight up.

7. BCS Championship Game: Auburn Tigers (+250) vs. Florida State Seminoles (-8.5)

Auburn tries to keep Florida State from being the first
undefeated BCS Champ since themselves in 2010

So in all of the above, we didn't touch on the BCS Championship Game.  It turns out that teams that make the title game do not have coaching or QB issues, are playing in the exact bowl they want to be playing in, and in this case, nowhere near home.  Certainly conference strength and matchup has to be factored, but Florida State ran roughshod through the weaker ACC (closest game was 14 points) with barely a challenge while Auburn played a number of close games throughout the year plus lost one game by 14 points against a decent, but not outstanding LSU.  Both teams score a ton of points, it's Florida State's game to lose.  The recipe for Auburn to win is to get up early on Florida State (since they're not used to coming back, Auburn is).  Or get in a 4th quarter shootout, Auburn will believe it can win, Florida State and their freshman QB (albeit a Heisman winner Jameis Winston) might falter.  Plus the SEC consecutive title streak, there is something to it.  But I see FSU jumping out ahead and their defense is better than advertised.  Florida State 41, Auburn 28.  Give the points and take the Noles.

Here are the Top 5 "Best Bets":
Arizona State (-14) vs. Texas Tech
North Carolina (-2) vs. Cincinnati
Clemson (+115) vs. Ohio State
Missouri (PK) vs. Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh (+175) vs. Bowling Green

Here's wishing all college football fans a fun and relaxing bowl season! 

Sportsman of the Week Ending 12/8/2013

An amazing finish to the 2013 college football season, and an amazing performance in what has become the marquee game on the first Saturday in December, the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn running back Tre Mason put his team on his back, and ran them all the way to the BCS Championship Game, the second in four years for the Auburn Tigers.  Mason gashed the Missouri Tigers for 304 yards and 4 TDs on the way to a video game-like 59-42 victory for Auburn. Remember when the SEC was all about defense? Well it ain't anymore, and LSU and Alabama are now playing catch up.  Congratulations Tre Mason, you are the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Top Undefeated College Football Teams Denied a Title since 1970

BCS bashers have united that the college football title game system never worked and was unfair to someone.  Thankfully for them (and most college football fans), 2013 marks the last time it will exist as college football moves to a 4-team playoff in 2014.  Some are thinking it's one year too late, with six teams undefeated as of this post (Alabama, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State, Northern Illinois, and Fresno State), none playing each other, and only two spots in the BCS Championship Game.  History says that undefeateds drop off at seasons end (rivalry games, conference title games, etc.) but this year (everyone always says) will be different.  However they were saying this with Oregon in the mix, and they lost a surprising game at Stanford (same Stanford team that lost to Utah).

But back to the matter at hand, fans get up in arms at the mere thought that an undefeated team is denied a chance to win a title.  And they act like it's never happened before and a crime against humanity.  These fans have short memories.  During the BCS (and well before the BCS) we've had undefeated teams not included in the title game and it's part of the fabric of college football.  With a limited sample of games and over 100 teams, some are bound to get through and get through in a manner that they do not demonstrate superiority to at least one other team (bigger conference, better bowl game, etc.).  Here's a list (since 1970) of teams that ran the table but didn't get a shot at the title (excluding teams on probation):

1970 - Arizona State (11-0) - As members of the WAC (and the weaker schedule to go with it), the Sun Devils only got to play in the Peach Bowl (destroying North Carolina), while outscoring opponents 401-148 over the season.  Three other powerhouses (Nebraska, Ohio State, and Texas) were awarded shares of the National Championship.  Of those, Nebraska was the only other undefeated, however they had tied USC.  ASU finished the AP #6
1970 - Toledo (12-0) -As members of the MAC, Toledo wasn't given serious consideration for a major bowl.  Instead they played the Tangerine against William and Mary.  The Rockets outscored their opponents 384 - 88 over the season finishing #12 in the final AP poll.
1973 - Penn State (12-0) - Okay, enough with the small conferences, Penn State played a major conference schedule (although was an independent) rolling over Stanford, Pittsburgh, Iowa, and LSU (Sugar Bowl).  This run could only get them to #5, with #1 Notre Dame finishing undefeated, but the other three teams with a loss or a tie.  Somehow Alabama with a loss claims a National Title as well, even with a loss to Notre Dame.
1975 - Arizona State (12-0) - Again, as WAC champions they didn't play a major conference schedule, but they did beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oklahoma, with one loss to Kansas at home, was awarded the National Championship as Arizona State finished #2 in the AP Poll
1982 - SMU (11-0-1) - Including a team with a tie here, because all other teams had a loss.  SMU (from the powerhouse Southwest Conference) defeated Pittsburgh in the Cotton Bowl, their only tie was to Top 10 Arkansas.  Instead, (independent) Penn State grabbed the National Title despite suffering a 3-TD loss to Alabama, which didn't even finished ranked in the AP.

Eric Dickerson and the Pony Express ran over everyone they played.

1994 - Penn State (12-0) - Now a member of the Big 10, you figure the power schedule would carry the Nittany Lions to a title.  However, locked into the Rose Bowl, they could "only" play Oregon while two other undefeateds, Nebraska and Miami, squared off in the Orange Bowl.  Penn State had to settle for #2 while Nebraska won the National Championship.

Kerry Collins could not pass his team into a National Title chance

1998 - Tulane (12-0) - The Conference USA champions ran the table, but lacked a marquee win and allowed 24 points a game, lacking that dominating swagger.  This got them a Top 10 finish, but undefeated Tennessee took home the National Championship hardware.
1999 - Marshall (13-0) - Only three years removed from National Title at Division I-AA, the Thundering Herd stormed through the MAC on their way to a Motor City Bowl victory.  Without a marquee win (Clemson and BYU the best, but both unranked) they finished #10 in the AP Poll, while undefeated Florida State won the title with a win over regular season undefeated Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.
2004 - Auburn (13-0) - You would think an SEC team would get a guaranteed berth to the BCS Championship game, but you would be wrong.  Not when two powerhouse teams (Oklahoma and Southern California) were also undefeated.  This being the first year that USC could pass the Rose Bowl and go to the BCS Championship Game.  USC rolled Oklahoma (a title later revoked due to the Reggie Bush scandal) leaving Auburn wondering what might have been, with the SEC winning 7 straight national titles beginning two years later (many of those teams with one loss).

Auburn rolled over everyone in the SEC, but didn't play for the BCS Hardware

2004 - Utah (12-0) - The Urban Meyer-led Mountain West Champions became the first "BCS Buster" in being invited to the Fiesta Bowl, but matched against a suspect Pittsburgh Big East Champion.  Defeating Texas A&M, BYU, and Arizona along the way wasn't enough to get the Utes into the title mix, with the aforementioned USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn also undefeated.  Utah finished #4 in the AP.
2006 - Boise State (13-0) - The Boise State empire begins as the WAC champions beat Oregon State, Utah, and Oklahoma on their way to a perfect season.  Meanwhile 1-loss Florida leapfrogged the Broncos to face undefeated Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game, leaving Boise to languish at a #5 finish, even after the upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Boise State defeats Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl

2008 - Utah (13-0) - For the second time in 4 years, Utah ran the table without much consideration for a National Championship.  Defeating Michigan, TCU, and Oregon State, then Alabama in the Sugar Bowl wasn't enough.  Even though both participants in the National Championship Game (Oklahoma and Florida) suffered a defeat during the season.  Utah finished #2 in the final AP poll without a chance to prove their worth against Florida.
2009 - Boise State (14-0) - For the second time in 4 years, the Broncos finished the year undefeated without a sniff of a title chance.  With Alabama and Texas as powerhouse undefeateds, the Broncos faced off with undefeated TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, edging the Horned Frogs, but only rising to #4 (#3 and #2 were one-loss teams to title winners Alabama).
2010 - TCU (13-0) - Still members of the MWC, the Frogs didn't get consideration for the BCS Championship game with Oregon and Auburn both finishing undefeated in deeper conferences.  TCU still beat Oregon State and Baylor.  TCU was invited to the Rose Bowl to play Big 10 Champion Wisconsin, and outmuscled the Badgers to a BCS game victory.  Enough to get them to #2 in the final AP poll behind the undefeated Auburn Tigers.

TCU stood up to Big 10 Champion Wisconsin

While many of these were from smaller conferences, several were from the big boys.  Unfortunately, today's college football climate is built around National Championships instead of Conference titles, and finishing #2 (or not playing the BCS Championship Game) is considered a failure.  The above situations are the fabric of college football to date, and a playoff will include more teams, but never enough, and in 30 years there will probably be another list like this one of those excluded from a title shot.

Week 9 Upset Specials

One word, ouch. If I keep taking threat though weeks I'm going to have to sell off my oil wells to pay my debts. But there is plenty I of runway left this season to right the ship and turn a profit here.

Not much to summarize for last week, another 0-3, another $3000 squandered. Actually covered all 3 games...again...but none hit straight up. -5,700...as I said...ouch.

This week is going to be a Texas team edition, not because I'm limiting myself, but because I see some glitches in the Vegas matrix on these spreads.

Auburn (+14, +440) vs. Texas A&M
I like SEC home teams getting this many points, plain and simple. The Aggies are way better, but let's not forget the Tigers almost took out  LSU as well. To much payout to pass up.

TCU (+7, +235) at Oklahoma State
I think the Frogs may play like a wounded animal defending its life. Oklahoma State is uneven and shallow at QB where there one injury away from really derailing their Offense. And their defense isn't good.

UTEP (+13.5, +400) at Houston
The Coogs are a team that is uneven, nice one week, awful the next. Russian roulette who shows up this week. UTEP isn't bad and might get rolling.