Super Bowl XLVIII Redux

The carnage, the pure carnage!!!  It was the worst of times, it was even worse than that for Peyton Manning.  This shot of his brother, cleverly captured by Fox, tells it all:

This picture tells a lot more stories than Eli's face.  Which is classic.  It literally looks like he's about to cry, as he witnesses his big brother get beat up by bullies.  There's empty beer cups behind him, reminiscent of a time in the game in which he might have felt like drinking beer.  This is not that time of game.  And who hasn't been there when you just turn the TV off.  Or shoot it with a gun.  But he had to keep watching.  They guy behind him, arms crossed frustrated, can't even wear his Broncos hat anymore.  And just the two of them, nobody else could bear to watch.  And of course, the score.  Brutal.  You could literally sum up the game with that one well-timed TV shot.

But we have more space than that.  First of all, my gambling picks were completely out of sight.  Coming into Super Sunday, I was $4,604 in the hole, or 15% down (given $30K in wagers).  But I raised the stakes, baby.  Here's the declaration.  I put down $5,000 each on the S/U, ATS, and O/U, and won all three for $14,841 in profit.  Clearing $10,237 for the entire playoffs with $45,000 wagered.  Not bad.  I've done worse.  Bottle of Champagne on me!

But here's some stats to make you think.  What if I told you the following:

• Peyton Manning would set a record for completions in a Super Bowl
• Demaryius Thomas would set a record for receptions in a Super Bowl, and go 13-118, and a TD
• Wes Welker would also go 8-84 in a supporting role
• Marshawn Lynch would rush for fewer than 40 yards and average 2.6 per carry
• No Seattle WR would have more than 5 catches, nor more than 66 yards
• The Seahawks would draw 10 penalties for 104 yards, more than double the Broncos
• Tarvaris Jackson would be in the game in the 4th quarter
• Percy Harvin would be limited to one catch for 5 yards
• The Seahawks would be 0-2 on fourth downs

Who would YOU think would have won the game.  Let alone not been blown out????  Shows what stats mean.  Turnovers, special teams scores, and a complete lack of any running game dictated the outcome.  Not to mention mental mistakes like the safety to start the game, and the constant pressure on Manning forcing the two turnovers.

Three factors I think that were underdiscussed.

1. The Broncos, not being at home, could not utilize their normal array of audibles (yes, including "Omaha") and presumably had to settle for a less effective play.
2. The Seahawks defense is salty.  Didn't have to gimmick, just play straight up and they wouldn't get beat.
3. Pete Carroll and his Seahawks coaching staff completely out-prepared John Fox and his Denver Broncos coaching staff.

Congrats to the City of Seattle, been decades since a team won something. And they are great fans.

But, can they repeat????

Follow @lhd_on_sports

Sportsman of the Week Ending 2/2/2014

This might have been one of the toughest weeks to pick a Sportsman.  The Super Bowl itself named a defensive player who, while scoring a TD, wasn't that much head and shoulders above the rest of his team.  I thought about naming the entire Seattle Seahawks defense, but that's not how this Blog works.  So I'm going with another difference maker.  Percy Harvin really put the game away with his 87-yard kickoff return to start the second half.  It was "only" 22-0, with one Denver score away from getting things rolling.  But the oft-injured slash went off.  No only that, he was the Seahawks leading rusher at 2 carries for 45 yards.  137 total yards is enough for me, Percy Harvin, you are the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

This week, we experience the ultimate single game in American Sports.  The Super Bowl.  There have been 47 to date, and each literally wrote history, from players to teams to coaches to dynasties. The 48th chapter features two evenly matched teams, here yours truly, J.R. Ewing, evaluates who I think will prevail.

But first (unfortunately for my oil assets), we must look at how I did on my Championship Game predictions.  In a word "not too good."  With $6,000 wagered on ATS, S/U, and O/U, I returned $3,326.  Total for the playoffs, about $4,604 in the hole ($30,000 wagered returned $25,396).  We have to up it for the Super Bowl, right?  I'm rich, so we got $5,000 per bet, ATS, S/U, and O/U, let's get it on!

February 2, 2014: 18:30 EST
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +115) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5, -125) O/U 47.5

There are lots of angles here.

You have the Number 1 offense (Denver) against the number 1 defense (Seattle).  Typically good defense beats good offense in my opinion.  But note that Seattle struggled against a "Broncos light" team in the Indianapolis Colts to one of their three losses.

Both teams didn't have to leave their home stadium to make it here.  Both teams enjoy a very strong advantage at home.  The weather might be a little less than ideal, this might tilt it to the defense.

The Seahawks are believed to be getting Percy Harvin back, a big play weapon they've been missing this whole season.

In the end, here's how I see it breaking down.  The Broncos offense will not have faced a defense this tough all season.  Staying base, the Seahawks can shut the Broncos down running, but the question is, can they do it passing?  If Peyton Manning gets hot, then the Seahawks might back off and the Broncos will have success.  But none of this is going to happen.  The Broncos have struggled offensively, at least to put up points, and it will only go down.  They can only put up 20 or so.  The Seahawks are now facing a much lighter defense than they've faced.  And they were able to put up 23 PPG against much better defenses.  They'll get their points, especially behind the grinding rushing attack of Marshawn Lynch.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 28, Broncos 20

This puts us JUST over the 47.5, but I'm willing to bet that.  The Broncos "might" get some big plays and I don't see the Seahawks offense struggling that much.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

For full Super Bowl Preview courtesy of the Sports-Kings, check out this YouTube show!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/19/2014

It's hard to migrate away from football this week, and our Sportsman truly exhibited the characteristics of greatness in a key individual matchup and contest.  The Denver Broncos Peyton Manning dissected a New England Patriots defense to the tune of 32-43 for 400 yards with 2 TD, methodically keeping the ball away from his rival Tom Brady for over 35 minutes of play.  And his Denver Broncos advanced to the Super Bowl by an easy 26-16 margin.  It could have been worse if they needed more points, but they largely played keep away in the fourth quarter, settling for long, time-consuming drives and field goals.  Peyton Manning becomes the second athlete to be awarded this honor two times (LeBron James is the other).  I cannot think of two more dominant athletes of our era to earn it.  Congratulations Peyton, you are the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2013-14 NFL Week Three Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

After a rough Week 1 (-$5,247), I hit big time Oil Money with a 9-3 week and $3,317 in winnings.  12-11-1 overall.  Unfortunately, some of the hits were smaller straight up bets.  But we recovered some losses and without a big money underdog winning, not much to recover.


Recap of how this works. Each week of the NFL Playoffs I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side (reduced income for heavy favorites).

Most pundits agree that the four best teams are playing, especially with no major upsets last week.  And the two best teams are hosting.  There are definitely no clear favorites and the matchups (Brady vs. Manning, Kaepernick vs. Wilson) are intriguing to say the least. 

January 19, 2014: 15:00 EST
New England Patriots (+6, +220) vs. Denver Broncos (-6, -240) O/U 55.5
Will this be the final chapter of Manning vs. Brady?  If so, it couldn't be on a bigger stage.  The Patriots seem a little soft on defense and the Broncos seem like their defense is getting better.  I feel like the Broncos got past a bigger hurdle than normal last week in their home win (demons from last year exorcised).  Brady usually wins this matchup, but hasn't had to go to Manning's house so much.  The Patriots are beatable on the road, and the Broncos will beat them.  It will be very high scoring.  Final Prediction: Broncos 38, Patriots 31.

January 19, 2014: 18:30 EST
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, +170) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -185) O/U 39
I have to think what I saw last week out of these teams is what to expect this week.  The Seahawks, while at home, struggled to move the ball against the New Orleans Saints after they got a marginal lead.  And had to protect a frantic situation in the closing moments.  The 49ers sustained early momentum and emotion by the host Carolina Panthers, methodically dismantled both their offense and defense and won with ease.  Both defenses will rule the day, but I don't see the Seahawks moving the ball that well.  Colin Kaepernick is the difference and gets enough points to win.  Watch out for a defensive score, could change everything.  Final Prediction: 49ers 20 Seahawks 10.


The three "best bets" it would be:
1) 49ers: ATS
2) 49ers/Seahawks: Under
3) Patriots/Broncos :Over

Best Bets were 3-0 last week, 5-1 on season (no S/U taken for a favorite).

For full playoff analysis including my own predictions, check out the Sports-Kings YouTube Channel: