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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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LHD_PotW (617) MLB (185) NFL (165) NCAA (129) NFL Playoffs (73) NBA (67) NHL (63)

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2013-14 NFL Week Three Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

After a rough Week 1 (-$5,247), I hit big time Oil Money with a 9-3 week and $3,317 in winnings.  12-11-1 overall.  Unfortunately, some of the hits were smaller straight up bets.  But we recovered some losses and without a big money underdog winning, not much to recover.

Recap of how this works. Each week of the NFL Playoffs I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side (reduced income for heavy favorites).

Most pundits agree that the four best teams are playing, especially with no major upsets last week.  And the two best teams are hosting.  There are definitely no clear favorites and the matchups (Brady vs. Manning, Kaepernick vs. Wilson) are intriguing to say the least. 

January 19, 2014: 15:00 EST
New England Patriots (+6, +220) vs. Denver Broncos (-6, -240) O/U 55.5
Will this be the final chapter of Manning vs. Brady?  If so, it couldn't be on a bigger stage.  The Patriots seem a little soft on defense and the Broncos seem like their defense is getting better.  I feel like the Broncos got past a bigger hurdle than normal last week in their home win (demons from last year exorcised).  Brady usually wins this matchup, but hasn't had to go to Manning's house so much.  The Patriots are beatable on the road, and the Broncos will beat them.  It will be very high scoring.  Final Prediction: Broncos 38, Patriots 31.

January 19, 2014: 18:30 EST
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, +170) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -185) O/U 39
I have to think what I saw last week out of these teams is what to expect this week.  The Seahawks, while at home, struggled to move the ball against the New Orleans Saints after they got a marginal lead.  And had to protect a frantic situation in the closing moments.  The 49ers sustained early momentum and emotion by the host Carolina Panthers, methodically dismantled both their offense and defense and won with ease.  Both defenses will rule the day, but I don't see the Seahawks moving the ball that well.  Colin Kaepernick is the difference and gets enough points to win.  Watch out for a defensive score, could change everything.  Final Prediction: 49ers 20 Seahawks 10.

The three "best bets" it would be:
1) 49ers: ATS
2) 49ers/Seahawks: Under
3) Patriots/Broncos :Over

Best Bets were 3-0 last week, 5-1 on season (no S/U taken for a favorite).

For full playoff analysis including my own predictions, check out the Sports-Kings YouTube Channel:

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