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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

This week, we experience the ultimate single game in American Sports.  The Super Bowl.  There have been 47 to date, and each literally wrote history, from players to teams to coaches to dynasties. The 48th chapter features two evenly matched teams, here yours truly, J.R. Ewing, evaluates who I think will prevail.

But first (unfortunately for my oil assets), we must look at how I did on my Championship Game predictions.  In a word "not too good."  With $6,000 wagered on ATS, S/U, and O/U, I returned $3,326.  Total for the playoffs, about $4,604 in the hole ($30,000 wagered returned $25,396).  We have to up it for the Super Bowl, right?  I'm rich, so we got $5,000 per bet, ATS, S/U, and O/U, let's get it on!

February 2, 2014: 18:30 EST
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +115) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5, -125) O/U 47.5

There are lots of angles here.

You have the Number 1 offense (Denver) against the number 1 defense (Seattle).  Typically good defense beats good offense in my opinion.  But note that Seattle struggled against a "Broncos light" team in the Indianapolis Colts to one of their three losses.

Both teams didn't have to leave their home stadium to make it here.  Both teams enjoy a very strong advantage at home.  The weather might be a little less than ideal, this might tilt it to the defense.

The Seahawks are believed to be getting Percy Harvin back, a big play weapon they've been missing this whole season.

In the end, here's how I see it breaking down.  The Broncos offense will not have faced a defense this tough all season.  Staying base, the Seahawks can shut the Broncos down running, but the question is, can they do it passing?  If Peyton Manning gets hot, then the Seahawks might back off and the Broncos will have success.  But none of this is going to happen.  The Broncos have struggled offensively, at least to put up points, and it will only go down.  They can only put up 20 or so.  The Seahawks are now facing a much lighter defense than they've faced.  And they were able to put up 23 PPG against much better defenses.  They'll get their points, especially behind the grinding rushing attack of Marshawn Lynch.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 28, Broncos 20

This puts us JUST over the 47.5, but I'm willing to bet that.  The Broncos "might" get some big plays and I don't see the Seahawks offense struggling that much.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

For full Super Bowl Preview courtesy of the Sports-Kings, check out this YouTube show!

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