Sportsman of the Week Ending 12/29/2024

For the final Sportsman of the Week Blog of 2024, we stick to the gridiron but shift to the pros.  The biggest game in Week 17 in the NFL was the red-hot Green Bay Packers at the somehow still under-the-radar Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings expectation was low after moving on from Kirk Cousins and starting journeyman Sam Darnold at quarterback when their rookie draft pick was injured.  They've since lost just two games.  Darnold was at his best against NFC North Rival Packers registering a season high passing yards at 377.  Three touchdowns.  The totals pushed him over 4000 yards for the season.  In a game that looked like the Vikings were coasting to victory, Darnold was clutch on the final drive registering two first downs to run out the clock.  The 14 wins on the season are a record for a first-year quarterback on a team.  The Vikings will go for the top seed in the NFC next week, but either way are expected to make a deep playoff run.  Sam Darnold is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Note: This is the 13th Anniversary of the Sportsman of the Week feature, having started January 1, 2012 with Keith Price of the Washington Huskies.  There have been approximately 676 weekly honorees representing 579 individuals removing repeat winners.

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/13/2022

In a really fun and amazing weekend of NFL Football, two traditional powerhouses squared off in the late TV window and thrilled audiences.  With the proud Green Bay Packers licking their wounds after 5 straight losses and the sky-high Dallas Cowboys in the frozen tundra, the Packers acted like a cornered wounded animal.  While Aaron Rodgers was his usual steady self, it was rookie wide receiver Christian Watson that emerged as a potential future superstar in the league.  Watson, who had been plagued with uneven play over the first half of his rookie season, emerged and showed why the Packers believed he can help bring the Packers back to the playoffs.  After a disappointing 88 yards on 10 catches in his first six games, he emerged with four big catches, including three touchdowns in the crucial 31-28 win to keep Green Bay in the playoff hunt.  His 58 yard catch in the 2nd quarter seemed to boost both the Packers and his confidence and they emerged as winners of their biggest game of the year.  Will Green Bay make the playoffs?  If so, it'll be due to Watson's emergence.  He is a worthy Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/24/2021

What a weekend of NFL Playoff Football with the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs headed to the Super Bowl crowned in their respective conferences.  While the quarterbacks stole the headlines for good reason, with 3 of the 4 being former MVPs, it was a defensive player who may have been the reason his team won.   Buccaneers LB Devin White was a force that could not be contained for the second week in a row.  He was a tackle machine with 15 total tackles, including 9 solo, which was double the other players on the field for either team.  But perhaps his most opportunistic game changes was when he scooped up a fumble on the Green Bay Packers initial possession of the second half and returned it 21 yards to the Green Bay 8 yard line.  One play later, the Bucs were up 28-10, a lead they would never relinquish on their way to a narrow 31-26 win.  Defensive players usually relinquish the accolades to the offensive weapons but not this week.  Devin White is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week! 

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/19/2020

The surprise team of the NFC this year emerged as Champions behind a surprise performance by an unexpected hero.  San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert gashed the Green Bay Packers defense for huge chunks of yards and there was nothing they could do about it.  And it had very little to do with respect for the Niners passing game, which only had to throw it 8 times.  Mostert ended the afternoon with 220 yards on 29 carries; the 2nd most rushing yards in a playoff game ever behind legendary Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson.   To go with that, four TDs in which he becomes on the the third player to have that many in a playoff game (Ricky Watters with 5 and LeGarrette Blount with 4).  Mostert's rise to get to this point is equally as amazing.  Having played for 5 teams in 2 years, the undrafted Purdue alumnus almost quit the game before the 49ers found a spot for him.  In a three-headed 2019 Niners backfield along with Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, it was Mostert who caught fire when San Francisco needed it.  And now he'll live every football player's dream.  Playing in a Super Bowl.  Mostert is a worthy Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/16/2017

The NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the week was no question the Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys and our Sportsman of the Week made what might be the play of the year.  Jared Cook hauled in a 35 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers with just 3 seconds left to set up the Packers game winning field goal to ruin the Cowboys playoff party at home.  For the game, he ended up with 6 catches for 103 yards and a TD as Rodgers favorite target.  All were season highs (except yards within 2 yards of his 105 yards during the last Packers loss in Washington).  But it was the catch in the clutch that thrust the Packers into the NFC Championship Game that earns Cook our Sportsman of the Week!

2016-17 NFL Conference Championship Playoff Preview

Not a good week for my
Cowboys or my bank account

An entertaining Divisional Playoff Weekend saw J.R. Ewing and Bulldog Babe (@bulldogbabexo) go 3-1 straight up, missing only the Packers who onw on a wild finish in Dallas.  Both correctly picked the Steelers mild upset of the Chiefs (much to Bulldog Babe's pleasure).

As for other props, not so good for J.R. Ewing
Total coming into week: $570
Straight Up (3-1): +100
ATS (2-2): -$20
O/U (0-4): -$440
Weekly Total: -$360
Total through two weeks: $210

This assumes a $110 bet to win $100 on 50/50 props, S/U has $100 on underdogs, money line to win $100 on favorites.

Bulldog Babe an impressive 6-2 so far
straight up and 3-1 last week ATS

The Steelers and Packers look to continue their miracle playoff runs.  Would you believe that these four teams are on a summed 30 game winning streak?  Just check out their last losses

Green Bay: 11/20
Atlanta: 12/4
Pittsburgh: 11/13
New England: 11/13

So the big question everyone is wanting to know is how Bulldog Babe thinks her Steelers will do.  And will either J.R. or Bulldog Babe go with the red hot Packers?

Lines and spreads are from CappedIn.com, a great website to track picks and play along for fun.  Amazing how up to date data they have (with very informed members).


January 22, 2017: 15:05 EST
Green Bay Packers  (+6, +204) at Atlanta Falcons (-6, -204) O/U 60

Green Bay Packers  (12-6)
Last eight games: 8-0
Road: 5-4
Against Playoff teams: 7-2 (2-1 on road)
Key Injuries: Jordy Nelson (doubtful)


Atlanta Falcons (12-5)
Last seven games: 6-1
Home: 6-3
Against Playoff teams: 3-2 (2-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

Previous matchup (@Atlanta): Falcons 33, Packers 32.

J.R. Ewing prediction
It's getting hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers, he seems to be feeling it.  I've doubted in the past due to injuries but that continues to not slow down the Pack.  The Falcons demolishing of the Seahawks was maybe the most impressive team last weekend (Patriots big win was expected).  Matt Ryan won the MVP, Rodgers maybe thinks he should have won it.  I feel a Packers upset in thrilling fashion just like last week.  Take the earlier score and give the Pack an extra FG

Final Prediction: Packers 35 Falcons 33.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
This NFC Championship matchup is a great one, with two great teams. Packers had an absolutely outstanding win last weekend, which knocked Dallas out of the playoffs. Falcons had a great win against the Seahawks last weekend, which eliminated Seattle from the playoffs. This is a hard one to predict honestly. Both teams have worked hard to get to this point and there are no other teams more deserving. I believe that Atlanta having home field advantage will motivate them to do well. While Green Bay will dominate early, Atlanta will come through and score their Super Bowl berth in a close game.

Final Prediction: Falcons 28 Packers 21.

January 22, 2017: 18:40 EST
Pittsburgh Steelers  (+6, +231) at New England (-6, -231) O/U 50

Pittsburgh Steelers  (13-5)
Last nine games: 9-0
Road: 6-3
Against Playoff teams: 4-3 (1-1 on road)
Key Injuries: None

New England (15-2)
Last eight games: 8-0
Home: 8-1
Against Playoff teams: 5-1 (3-1 at home)
Key Injuries: Rob Gronkowski (out)

Previous matchup (@Pittsburgh): Patriots 27, Steelers 16.

J.R. Ewing prediction
The Steelers won, but seemed to sputter more on offense than expected with nary a TD in their Divisional round win over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Field Goals won't beat the Patriots (and this is a better defense).  Meanwhile some analysts thought the Patriots looked sluggish against the Texans.  Mind you they covered one of the largest spreads in playoff history.  We should all struggle so much.  The Patriots machine is too much for the killer B's (Ben, Bell, and Brown) and they advance to the Super Bowl.

Final Prediction: Patriots 28 Steelers 20.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
This AFC Championship consists of two of the best quarterbacks in the league, Ben Roethilsberger and Tom Brady. So this will be a showdown that everyone needs to watch. I feel like this is going to be an up and down game. I was not impressed with the Patriots last weekend especially considering it was their first game after a bye week and they were very rusty and sloppy. While I think that Brady is going to have a great night, I also feel like Big Ben and the Steelers have just a bit more momentum than the Patriots do. Why? The Steelers are on a nine game win streak and they have fate on their side. They are motivated and ready to get back to the Super Bowl. They have not been their best on the road, especially in New England (0-3), but like I said, they are a second half team so they will show up and win. I have Pittsburgh taking this one and going to Houston to get their shot at the Lombardi.

Final Prediction: Steelers 24 Patriots 17.

So there you have it, J.R. and Bulldog Babe disagree on both games?  Who will be correct?  Tune in Sunday afternoon to find out!

2016-17 NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoff Preview

Yee Haw, I love Football!

As is the tradition for NFL playoff time, Dallas native and Cowboys fan J.R. Ewing will offer you a full range analysis of the NFL playoffs week by week.  This year, we have a special twist to discuss in a minute.  But here each playoff game will have a short analysis with thoughts on key factors then a final score predict.  The final score predict then gives you a Straight Up, Over/Under, and Against the Spread (ATS) pick to chew on for recreation purposes only.  We'll be tracking our own progress.  Or if you're someone with disposable income, gamble away (but this blog is not responsible for losses).

Welcome NFL Expert consultant, Bulldog Babe

For this year's twist, we're bringing in a NFL expert consultant to offer supporting or contradictory analysis.  Welcome "Bulldog Babe" (@bulldogbabexo) whose candid football analysis is spot on, funny, and usually turns out correct if you are smart enough to follow her on Twitter.  Bias alert, she really likes Aaron Murray and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And if you follow NASCAR, you have to track her lap by lap analysis (just don't cheer for Jimmie Johnson).

Lines and spreads are from CappedIn.com, a great website to track picks and play along for fun.  Amazing how up to date data they have (with very informed members).

January 7, 2017: 16:35 EST
Oakland Raiders (+3.5, +175) at Houston Texans (-3.5, -205) O/U 36.5

Oakland Raiders (12-4)
Last ten games: 8-2
Road: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 1-3 (0-1 on road)
Key Injuries: Derek Carr (out)

Houston Texans (9-7)
Last eight games: 4-4
Home: 7-1
Against Playoff teams: 2-3 (2-0 at home)
Key Injuries: Lamar Miller (probable)

J.R. Ewing prediction
Most pundits slam the Texans for playing in a bad division and having no offense.  Both true.  But they have the number one defense (by yardage allowed) and are very tough at home.  The Raiders will be starting rookie quarterback Connor Cook and this is a tough assignment for him.  These teams played in Mexico City and the Raiders prevailed on a fourth quarter comeback.  The methodical Texans get it done at home with a tough defense and enough scoring (maybe via turnovers) to move to the next round.

Final Prediction: Texans 20 Raiders 12.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Texans have had an up and down year, especially at the quarterback position towards the end of the regular season. Raiders are without Derek Carr going into the first playoff round and their final regular season game was not their best of the season, but they will have to lean on rookie Connor Cook during the playoffs. I have the Raiders taking this game in a close one

Final Prediction: Raiders 20 Texans 13.

January 7, 2017: 20:15 EST
Detroit Lions (+8, +300) at Seattle Seahawks (-8, -360) O/U 43

Detroit Lions (9-7)
Last three games: 0-3
Road: 3-5
Against Playoff teams: 0-5 (0-4 on road)
Key Injuries: Matt Stafford (probable)

Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)
Last six games: 3-3
Home: 7-1
Against Playoff teams: 3-1 (2-0 at home)
Key Injuries: Earl Thomas (out), Tyler Lockett (out)

J.R. Ewing prediction
The Seahawks edge seems to have been less since Earl Thomas went out.  Always tough at home in front of the 12th Man, self-proclaimed loudest crowd in the NFL.  They have sputtered on offense with no real running game this year.  But the Lions are reeling badly.  Note no wins against playoff teams for Detroit, they seem to have little chance to keep up with the Seahawks.  Lower scoring victory for Seattle, but closer than people think.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 21 Lions 17.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
This is a great matchup with two great teams that have had a great season. Despite his injured finger, Lions QB Matt Stafford is having one of, if not, his best season since being drafted by Detroit in 2009. He became the fastest player in league history to throw for 30,000 pass yards in just his 109th career game, breaking Dan Marino’s record of 114 games. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is a mobile quarterback who has that ability to extend plays. Just because of that, he will be a force to be reckoned with when he faces the Lions defense. It will be a close matchup I feel like as well.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 24 Lions 21.

January 8, 2017: 13:05 EST
Miami Dolphins (+10, +380) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, -455) O/U 46

Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Last eleven games: 9-2
Road: 4-4
Against Playoff teams: 1-3 (0-2 on road)
Key Injuries: Ryan Tannehill (doubtful)

Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-5)
Last seven games: 7-0
Home: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 2-3 (2-2 at home)
Key Injuries: None

J.R. Ewing prediction
No team in the AFC seems hotter than the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose last loss was an epic thriller to the Dallas Cowboys.  The Dolphins have also been winning with one of the best records in the NFL the second half.  However, missing Tannehill is a killer.  And while they defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, these Steelers are vastly improved.  Much better offensive weapons, plus terrible towels and the Steelers roll easily against the punchless Dolphins, who rely on the running game and Jay Ajayi to protect leads or keep them in close games.  This won't be close.

Final Prediction: Steelers 31 Dolphins 10.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Dolphins have a great running back in Jay Ajayi, but the Steelers have a great offensive line with guys such as wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell included in the mix. These teams faced each other in week 6 and it was not a good run for Pittsburgh, but it will be a different go around this time. Pittsburgh will be playing angry remembering the previous matchup in week 6.

Final Prediction: Steelers 24 Dolphins 14.
 
January 8, 2017: 16:40 EST
New York Giants (+4.5, +185) at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, -215) O/U 44.5

New York Giants (11-5)
Last eleven games: 9-2
Road: 3-5
Against Playoff teams: 3-2 (1-2 on road)
Key Injuries: None

Green Bay Packers  (10-6)
Last six games: 6-0
Home: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 5-2 (4-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

J.R. Ewing prediction
The Packers are the talk of the NFC after living up to MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers prediction of "winning out" after Week 11.  They are always impressive at home and did damage against playoff teams this year.  The Giants haven't been too shabby either, and Eli Manning just knows how to win in the playoffs (8-1 in his last nine playoff games).  The Giants fight tough, but the Packers too tough at home.  The temps will be well below freezing, keeping it lower scoring than otherwise.

Final Prediction: Packers 24 Giants 17.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Eli Manning is one of five quarterbacks to win a road game in Green Bay, he has done so twice. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are headed into Sunday on a six game win streak and Rodgers threw for 300 yards last week in the matchup against the Detroit Lions. He is also has had an MVP, and he has had a stellar season despite the team’s regular season record. Sunday is the first time that they will face off in the NFC Wild Card game, so it will be another great game.

Final Prediction: Packers 27 Giants 20.

The NFL playoffs are for the fans, no more pretenders, just contenders.  I want to thank Bulldog Babe for her analysis and contributions and hope she can join us the rest of the postseason (her contract at this point is week to week).  Enjoy the games, and we'll provide a postmortem along with Division Playoff analysis next week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/17/2016

The NFL playoffs took center stage last weekend, and a veteran wide receiver stole the show.  Arizona Cardinals star Larry Fitzgerald resembled his younger self in dominating a thrilling game with two big catches in overtime to thrust his team to the next round.  In total, Fitzgerald ended with 8 catches for 176 yards and the decisive 5-yard TD in overtime to defeat the Green Bay Packers.  But it was his 75 yard catch and run as the first play in overtime that tilted the contest.  The catch was only made necessary after an improbable hail mary pass by Aaron Rodgers tied the game with no time left.  In what was the best game of the weekend, our Sportsman of the Week was the deciding factor.

2015-16 NFL Week One Playoff Preview

Cowboys are out of it, but gambling is on

Betting information VegasInsider.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

We're not going to talk about the disaster that was the NCAA College Football Bowl Game picks.  You have to try to be so bad to be 1-9 in relatively 50/50 bets. Burn the tape.

The NFL playoffs are ripe for betting and I'm never one to turn away. Each week of the NFL Playoffs, I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and keep track of my overall (certainty) winnings straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $110 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $100 on either side.

My approach is pretty simple.  Look at teams home/road performance.  Look at the last streak of games.  Look at record against playoff teams (everyone can beat Titans and Browns).  And look at their health.  Most of the teams are relatively even when it comes to W-L record.  The week one theme seems to be perceived stronger teams playing weaker division winners at their house.  And all are favored.

January 9, 2016: 16:35 EST
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, -180) at Houston Texans (+3, +160) O/U 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Last ten games: 10-0
Road: 5-3 (avg score KC 27 vs. Opp 20)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (2-3 on road)
Key Injuries: None

Houston Texans (9-7)
Last nine games:  7-2
Home: 5-3 (avg score Hou 20 vs. Opp 16)
Against Playoff teams: 1-3 (0-2 at home)
Key Injuries: None

You cannot argue that both these teams are not extremely hot entering the postseason.  In their last 20 games combined, they are 17-3 (all losses by Texans to Patriots, Dolphins, and Bills ).  The Texans, however, have allowed 9 or fewer points in six of their last nine games.  The Chiefs 10 game winning streak only featured two playoff teams, the other five they faced were in the first six weeks (1-5, lone win against Texans).  Chiefs won the season opener 27-20, it's be tighter and more low scoring but the Chiefs move on.

Final Prediction: Chiefs 17 Texans 16.

January 9, 2016: 20:15 EST
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, +130) at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, -150) O/U 45.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Last seven games: 5-2
Road: 4-4 (avg score Pit 22 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (1-3 on road) 
Key Injuries: RB DeAngelo Williams (questionable)

Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Last eight games: 4-4
Home: 6-2 (avg score Cin 25 vs. Opp 18)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (2-2 at home)
Key Injuries: QB Andy Dalton (doubtful)

This is one to watch the health of Dalton, because it doesn't seem plausible that the Bengals can without their mainstay QB (see last eight games record).  The Steelers have been hot (minus a mulligan loss to the Ravens) and are playing with house money after the Jets lost a game to offer them a Wild Card spot.  If Dalton plays, who knows whether he can be effective, so it seems that the Steelers got this one.

Final Prediction: Steelers 26 Bengals 14.

January 10, 2016: 13:05 EST
Seattle Seahawks (-5, -220) at Minnesota Vikings (+5, +180) O/U 40

Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Last seven games: 6-1
Road: 5-3 (avg score Sea 31 vs. Opp 15)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (2-2 on road)
Key Injuries:  Marshawn Lynch (questionable)

Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Last seven games:4-3
Home: 6-2 (avg score Min 25 vs. Opp 20)
Against Playoff teams: 2-4 (1-2 at home)
Key Injuries: Adrian Peterson (probable)

I look no further than the Seattle Seahawks hot streak to settle this one.  Only loss in the last 7 games was a mulligan against the Rams.  Most impressive, in their last five road games in defense points allowed (3, 12, 7, 6, 6) and they're facing a green playoff quarterback.  In their last three road games, they've scored 35 points or more.  The Vikings have been average in their last 7 games, and against playoff teams only wins against the Packers in the finale and Week 5.  The Seahawks are battle tested and they may be getting Lynch back.  Weather is supposed to be bad, but neither of these teams need ideal conditions to throw the ball all over the place.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 31 Vikings 10

January 10, 2016: 16:40 EST
Green Bay Packers (-1, -105) at Washington Redskins (+1, -115) O/U 45

Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Last ten games:4-6
Road: 5-3 (avg score GB 23 vs. Opp 23)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (1-3 on road)
Key Injuries: None.  

Washington Redskins (9-7)
Last four games: 4-0
Home: 6-2 (avg score Was 26 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 0-2 (0-0 at home)
Key Injuries: None

It is tempting to look at the Redskins four game winning streak against a reeling Packers team and go with the home team. But then you look at their schedule and realize how soft it was.  Two playoff teams faced (Patriots and Panthers) with an average score of 35-13.  That leaves 7-7 against non-playoff teams, talk about average.  The Packers lose to playoff teams but can handle softer foes.  They'll roll pretty well.

Final Prediction: Packers 27 Redskins 21

If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:
Seahawks: ATS
Chiefs vs. Texans: Under
Steelers: ATS

2014-15 NFL Conference Championship Playoff Preview

Things were looking okay last week.  Then Peyton happened.  After a 2.5% profit in week one, the market crashed as fast as Peyton Manning's future prospects.  Total losses -29%.  Key losses were Cowboys and Broncos S/U, and missing three out of four ATS.  So don't listen to me.  Unless the law of averages is back in my favor...proceed at your own risk!

Each week of the NFL Playoffs, I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site). 

January 18, 2014: 15:05 EST

Green Bay Packers (+7.5, +295) at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, -325) O/U 46.5

Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Last nine games: 8-1
Road: 4-4 (avg score GB 21 vs. Opp 23)
Against Playoff teams: 4-2 (0-2 on road)
Key Injuries: Aaron Rodgers (calf, probable). 

Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Last seven games: 7-0
Home: 8-1 (avg score Sea 27 vs. Opp 15)
Against Playoff teams: 6-1 (4-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

The Packers are going to be out of gas this week.  The Seahawks beat them by 20 in the season opener, and they're playing as good or better now than then.  The Packers are but a lucky bounce away from probably losing to the Cowboys.  The Seahawks put up an impressive amount of points against a good Panthers defense.  The Packers are downright lousy on the road.  This is a route in the making.  The only thing I don't like is the noon kickoff in Seattle, hopefully the crowd gets up early.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 28 Packers 14.

January 18, 2014: 18:40 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, +235) at New England Patriots (-6.5, -255) O/U 54

Indianapolis Colts (13-5)
Last eight games: 7-1
Road: 6-3 (avg score Ind 28 vs. Opp 26)
Against Playoff teams: 4-4 (2-3 on road)
Key Injuries: Josh McNary (suspended).

New England Patriots (13-4)
Last five games: 4-1
Home: 8-1 (avg score NE 33 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 5-1 (4-0 at home)
Key Injuries: None

The Colts were really impressive in Denver last week.  They baffled Peyton Manning with their game plan.  Their offense was efficient in a hostile environment.  Andrew Luck seems to be growing up before our eyes.  Tom Brady and his Patriots won a seesaw battle against a good, but not great Ravens team at home.  Including some shenanigans on lining up.  The Colts are a team on a mission, I see an upset here.

Final Prediction: Colts 31 Patriots 28.

If I had to pick the three "best bets" (3-3 so far) it would be:
Seahawks: ATS
Seahawks: S/U
Colts: ATS

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/11/2015

The most hyped game of the NFL Divisional Playoff weekend was probably the Green Bay Packers vs. the Dallas Cowboys.  Echos of the Ice Bowl were evident (although temps were balmy in the mid-20s.  But it was a rookie Wide Receiver that burst on the scene.  The Packers Davante Adams was targeted by once and future NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers 11 times, hauling in 7 passes for 117 yards and a TD.  Adams did some of his best work after the catch, including a highlight reel 46 yard TD scamper that changed the momentum of the game.  He also hauled in a critical 3rd down pass to seal the game in the fourth quarter.  You never know who your star is going to be, this week it's Davante Adams, our Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2014-15 NFL Week Two Playoff Preview

2014-15 NFL Week One Playoffs in the books and a slight profit was made.  Join me, J.R. Ewing, yes, that J.R. Ewing, weekly for playoff handicapping.  Here's how I roll:

 Each week of the NFL Playoffs, I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side.

First week I was 4-0 on over/under, 1-3 ATS, and 2-2 money line.  Profit for $315 for $12,800 wagered (or 2.5%, includes house take at -110 per $100 won).  Not bad .

So what do I think this week?  Much more confident.  See why below.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

January 10, 2014: 16:35 EST

Baltimore Ravens (+7, +260) at New England Patriots (-7, -290) O/U 47.5

Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
Last five games: 4-1
Road: 5-4 (avg score Bal 26 vs. Opp 23)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (1-3 on road) 
Key Injuries: None.

New England Patriots (12-4)
Last five games: 3-2
Home: 7-1 (avg score NE 33 vs. Opp 17)
Against Playoff teams: 4-1 (3-0 at home)
Key Injuries: None

I am tempted to take the Baltimore Ravens.  They have looked strong on the road this year.  Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in the postseason.  They're balanced in all phases.  But this is the Patriots.  Their 7-1 at home includes a lone loss at seasons end after home field was earned.  Tom Brady seems especially motivated this year.  Gronk has transformed the offense since returning.  I see this going for the Pats.

Final Prediction: Patriots 35 Ravens 24.

January 10, 2014: 20:15 EST
Carolina Panthers (+10.5, +435) at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, -500) O/U 39.5

Carolina Panthers (8-8-1)
Last five games: 5-0
Road: 3-4-1 (avg score Car 24 vs. Opp 27)
Against Playoff teams: 2-4-1 (0-2-1 on road)
Key Injuries: None

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Last six games: 6-0
Home: 7-1 (avg score Sea 26 vs. Opp 15)
Against Playoff teams: 5-1 (3-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

I'll say from the jump, 10 points is too much.  Neither of these teams has lost since 11/30 (Thanksgiving weekend).  The Panthers offense on the road has defied odds (avg 38 points in that span).  However, in the last three games for the Seahawks at Seattle, only 16 points allowed by their defense (total, not average).  But the Seahawks haven't scored more than 20 in their last three home games.  The Seahawks win this in a low scoring affair (their first matchup was won by the Seahawks 13-9 at Carolina).  I think more on the Seattle side, but low scoring and within the points.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 20 Panthers 13.

January 11, 2014: 13:05 EST
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5, +220) at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, -240) O/U 52.5

Dallas Cowboys (13-4)
Last five games: 5-0
Road: 8-0 (avg score Dal 34 vs. Opp 26)
Against Playoff teams: 3-1 (1-0 on road)
Key Injuries: None.

Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Last six games: 5-1
Home: 8-0 (avg score GB 40 vs. Opp 20)
Against Playoff teams: 3-2 (3-0 at home)
Key Injuries: Aaron Rodgers (calf, probable).

This has to be the first time two teams met in the playoffs in which one was 8-0 on the road and the other 8-0 at home.  The Packers mojo at home is renown.  The Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers are the Minnesota Vikings.  The Cowboys really did look shaky last week, but settled down after the first 14 points to actually control the game (sometimes because of bad no calls).  Dallas' balance (can run or pass, and pass long or short) looks better than a gimpy Rodgers and their relatively one dimensional attack (he bails them out more often than not).  And the Packers defense isn't that strong.  I like the Pokes.

Final Prediction: Cowboys 24 Packers 21. 

January 11, 2014: 16:40 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+7, +280) at Denver Broncos (-7, -255) O/U 54

Indianapolis Colts (12-5)
Last six games: 6-1
Road: 5-3 (avg score Ind 29 vs. Opp 28)
Against Playoff teams: 3-4 (1-3 on road)
Key Injuries: None.

Denver Broncos (12-4)
Last four games: 4-0
Home: 8-0 (avg score Den 35 vs. Opp 21)
Against Playoff teams: 2-3 (2-0 at home)
Key Injuries: None

If you look at the points for and allowed by these teams, it will be high scoring.  At an even seven points, I think the Broncos, behind Peyton Manning and his experience, perform well in this game.  Andrew Luck has had little success in the playoffs on the road.  The Colts defense was impressive against a Bengals team without A.J. Green, but the Broncos will be a whole new beast.  Surprising the Broncos had a losing record against playoff teams, but those were all on the road.  The teams met Week 1 and the Broncos won 31-24.  They'll win by more this go around.

Final Prediction: Broncos 38 Colts 28

If I had to pick the three "best bets" (was 2-1 last week) it would be:
Cowboys: ATS
Broncos ATS
Seahawks/Panthers: Under

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/9/2014

There were several huge performers on NFL Sunday, but this week's Sportsman shined above the rest.  QB Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers humiliated their arch-rival Chicago Bears defense, literally making it look like he was throwing against air.  Even with receivers wide open, Rodgers put the ball where it had to be for a total of six TDs before halftime, tying an NFL record that hadn't been done in 45 years.   Afforded most of the second half on the bench, his final stat line was 18-27 for 315 yards and six TDs.  Worth of our Sportsman of the Week!  This is Rodgers second nod, joining Peyton Manning (3), LeBron James (2), and Kevin Durant (2) as the only multiple time winners (through 150 weeks).

2013-14 NFL Week One Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

JR Ewing loves the NFL post season to bring out his Christmas money and put it all on the line.  Each week of the NFL Playoffs (hopefully earlier than Saturday) I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side.

In week one, there is a lot of talk about how teams with better records like the 49ers, and Saints are stuck visiting teams that won their division with worse records.  Whether or not the NFL should reseed is a story for another blog (they shouldn't), but it provides some more even matchups than sometimes you get if the power team were at home.  Here's how Week 1 will shake out!

January 4, 2014: 16:35 EST
Kansas City Chiefs (+1, -103) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1, -107) O/U 46
Both teams come in at 11-5, so at the surface, you wonder why the Colts aren't bigger favorites?  A weaker division for sure, but they also matched the NFC West and defeated both Seattle and San Francisco.  They also beat Denver.  And Kansas City just 2 weeks ago.  Meanwhile Kansas City is 2-5 in their last 7 games, with wins over the hapless Redskins and Raiders.  I don't see this one being so close at Lucas Oil stadium, Andrew Luck will have nice elements to throw and they'll win this one going away.  Final Prediction: Colts 27 Chiefs 10.


January 4, 2014: 20:10 EST
New Orleans Saints (+2.5, +125) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, -135) O/U 53.5
Most people know by now the Saints are a team of two stadiums.  Unbeatable at home (8-0), and punchless on the road (3-5).  Might have to do with a dome, might have to do with rowdy fans, either way, it's tough picking the 11-5 Saints over the 10-6 Eagles in bad weather in Philly.  The Eagles have quietly gone 7-1 over the second half of the season, and with Foles firmly entrenched and the NFL's leading rusher LeSean McCoy, they're equipped to whip the Saints. Final Prediction: Eagles 31 Saints 17.

January 5, 2014: 13:05 EST
San Diego Chargers (+6.5, +245) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, -265) O/U 46.5
I think this game qualifies as the one most likely to produce a playoff Week 2 loser.  The Chargers barely made the playoffs after a referee mistake against the Chiefs back ups.  The Bengals, at 11-5, have played well down the stretch (5-1 over their last 6) but have been one and done the past two years and Dalton hasn't looked the part of playoff winning quarterback.  That being said, someone has to win and it won't be the Bolts. Final Prediction: Bengals 27, Chargers 10.

January 5, 2014: 16:40 EST
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, -132) vs. Green Bay Packers (+2.5, +122) O/U 46.5
A very intriguing matchup indeed, with the 49ers possessing 4 more wins than the host Packers.  And the weather, which will be colder than a wit--, err windy day at the North Pole.  I think this all might get in the 49ers head.  While the Niners have won six straight, they haven't played a cold weather game against a good team, and the Packers, while looking pretty bad down the stretch, now have Rodgers back (and Cobb) and are sky high after their big road win last week.  Packers also looking for revenge after last year.  Final Prediction: Packers 28, 49ers 21.

If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:
Bengals: ATS
Saints vs. Eagles: Under
Colts: Money Line


And one bonus pick, off the books, here's how the BCS Championship Game breaks down
January 6, 2014: 20:30 EST
Auburn Tigers (+8.5, +265) vs. the Florida State Seminoles (-8.5, -295) O/U 67.5
Florida State has simply rolled everybody, all wins by more than 2 TDs.  They've played respectable opponents in the ACC, but not the schedule Auburn had to play.  BUT, Auburn lost a game by 2 TDs and had to pull several more out in the last seconds.  The major factor here is, what happens when Florida State gets popped in the mouth, because we don't know how they might react.  Auburn will not be phased if they go down by more than 2 TD, FSU might get phased.  But, I think Florida State looks more like the SEC teams that have won in the past (can run or throw and play defense) vs. the Auburn spread running attack and lack of defense.  This one goes to the 'Noles.  Final Prediction: Seminoles 41, Tigers 31.

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/15/2013

Another week, another NFL QB puts up video game stats in a game in which they needed to win.  Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers went all Madden on the Washington Redskins, a team that is reeling but still looked like scout league talent against Rodgers.  He put up 480 yards (a career high) and 4 TD, while only misfiring on 8 passes in 42 attempts (81% completion percentage).  Rumors of the Packers demise were greatly exaggerated after the Week 1 dud against the San Francisco 49ers, Rodgers and the Pack will contend all year.

2012 NFL Week Two Playoff Preview

Week 1 didn't go so well, but we're back on the horse for another rodeo!  Two of my bets were pretty much out the window when Ponder didn't answer the bell (Vikings over and cover).

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

January 12, 2013: 16:30 EST
Baltimore Ravens (+9.5, +375) vs. Denver Broncos (-9.5, -420) O/U 46.5
To me, the Broncos are a hot ball of knives rolling downhill with only warm butter in the way to stop them.  The Ravens are warm butter.  And Peyton Manning is a surgeon, questions about his health are completely abated at this point.  And the defense and running game of the Broncos have come to playoff level.  This won't be close. Final Prediction: Broncos 31, Ravens 13.

January 12, 2013: 20:00 EST
Green Bay Packers (+2.5, +135) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, -145) O/U 45
One of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend, a veteran, MVP QB vs. a guy who came on late and may save the 49ers season from mediocrity.  But I'm not thinking so.  The Packers seemed more or less disinterested in the regular season unless it was a big game.  This is a big one, and the Packers will come ready to rumble.  They have a lot of offensive weapons and the defense is good enough.  It will come down to a winning drive, and Rodgers will lead the drive.  Final Prediction: Packers 20, 49ers 17.

January 13, 2013: 13:00 EST
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +120) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -130) O/U 46
I actually flopped on this one, my first inclination was to take the Seahawks as the gutsy team of destiny.  But then realized they were about to be blown out of FedEx last week until RGIII was disabled (or at least neutralized).  The Seahawks are on a great run, but going to the home of the #1 seed in the NFC and only being given a couple of points.  I think the Falcons have grown up, and with the home game, will roll here. Final Prediction: Falcons 27, Seahawks 17.

January 13, 2013: 16:30 EST
Houston Texans (+9, +365) vs. New England Patriots (-9, -410) O/U 47.5
The Texans sure get beat up a lot for being frauds, overrated, mediocre, etc.  Some of it deserved, but the talent is there in all phases.  That being said, Brady and co. are rested and healthy and present a lot of matchup problems for the Texans defense (that actually looked good last week).  All that being said, I like the Patriots but in a close one.  If anything, the Monday Night Massacre (that started the Texans tailspin) reminds them what not to do. Final Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 24.

For fake gambling purposes, I'll assume $1,000 on underdog S/U, minus amount on favorite S/U, $1,100 on ATS + O/U on the above bets (3 per game, 12 total).  If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:

Packers vs. 49ers: under
Broncos: ATS
Packers: S/U

Recapping the first week's disaster, I got 0/4 ATS, 1/4 S/U (Packers, the only favorite I picked) and split the Over/Under.  That doesn't bode well.  By my calculations, -$6,600.  But plenty of time to catch up!

2012 NFL Week One Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

JR Ewing is back for more gambling.  Took a bath in the College Football regular season, but recouped some in the Bowl Season.   It's time for every sports fans favorite time of year, the NFL Playoffs!  Each week (hopefully earlier than Saturday) I'll preview the games, predict final scores (and oh, by the way, see how the straight up, ATS, and O/U bets go).

Without further ado!

January 5, 2013: 16:30 EST
Cincinnati Bengals (+4, +183) vs. Houston Texans (-4, -198) O/U 42.5
A rematch of this exact time slot last year, with the same points spread roughly.  This time, Matt Schaub is healthy, but certainly not hitting on all cylinders.  The Bengals are somewhat of a hot team now (winning 7 of their last 8, but only one of those wins over a playoff team).  The Texans are ice cold, blowing home field advantage in the last two weeks and losing 3 of their last 4.  I think the collapse completes as the Bengals use last years loss as motivation to upset the reeling Texans. Final Prediction: Bengals 23 Texans 14.

January 5, 2013: 20:00 EST
Minnesota Vikings (+7.5, +330) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -370) O/U 45.5
The Packers didn't figure to lose that much fire power from last year, but a few injuries and some ineffectiveness have rendered this team a little more ordinary than usual.  Another team that blew home field last week might weigh on their minds as they could be sitting at home watching the 49ers have to play this game.  Meanwhile, the Vikings had to play their way in winning 4 in a row, the last two over playoff teams on the road.  And Adrian Peterson is good and on a mission and Green Bay has struggled to stop him.  It's hard enough to win in Green Bay, but to do it twice in 7 days is near impossible.  This one is close, but Green Bay pulls it out. Final Prediction: Packers 27 Vikings 24.

January 6, 2013: 13:00 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+7, +265) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7, -295) O/U 47
Following the theme above, the road team underdog (Indianapolis) won 5 of 6 to secure the Wild Card easily.  The Ravens, injured on defense and struggling on offense, have lost 4 of 5.  And, note, have a worse record than the Colts.  The Colts got an emotional lift from the return of Chuck Pagano last week (#chuckstrong) while the Ravens will get a boost from Ray Lewis and his retirement announcement.  I'm just not feeling the Ravens in this one, the Colts look like a team that is peaking and are probably the 3rd best AFC team. Final Prediction: Colts 24, Ravens 14.

January 6, 2013: 16:30 EST
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, -143) vs. Washington Redskins (+2.5, +133) O/U 46.5
Two red hot teams here, Seahawks have won 5 straight and 7 of 8, the Redskins have won 7 straight since their bye week.  There are some questions about RGIII's health and ability to run, but other than that, not much to not like about either of these teams.  Both have rookie QB's so no advantage there.  Very tough to call, I like the Redskins to eek one out at home behind a hungry crowd.  Final Prediction: Redskins 27, Seahawks 24.

For fake gambling purposes, I'll assume $1,000 on S/U, $1,100 on ATS + O/U on the above bets (3 per game, 12 total).  If I had to pick the three "best bets" it would be:
Bengals: Money Line
Colts: ATS
Vikings vs. Packers: Over

NFL Playoff Week Two Predictions

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site)

January 14, 2012: 16:30 EST
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, -175) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, +165) O/U 47
Going into the playoffs I really liked New Orleans to go deep, but I felt myself starting to hedge. They aren't that good on the road, and the 49ers are by far the most underrated team in the playoffs. But I think Brees and the Saints playoff experience carries the day. If the 49ers can get their ground game going with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree making big 3rd down catches they might be in business. Keep away from the Saints is a must. I think the game goes to the 4th quarter but the Saints pull it out. Final Prediction: Saints 28, 49ers 23.

January 14, 2012: 20:00 EST
Denver Broncos (+13.5, +575) vs. New England Patriots (-13.5, -710) O/U 50
The Broncos had a banner week last week, but two main factors gave them the edge (albeit barely). A home crowd (for the most part) and an opposing QB very limited in mobility. The Patriots have struggled at home in the playoffs (crowds seem more nervous than enthused) and, oh yeah, remember that Brady is banged up (as are a dozen others). And their defense is porous A week off helped, but the tight lipped Patriots might be hiding something. I can't pick the Broncos to win, but I think they'll keep it close. Final Prediction: Patriots 28, Broncos 21.

January 15, 2012: 13:00 EST
Houston Texans (+7.5, +305) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, -335) O/U 36
Some people look at the earlier season matchup (of which Baltimore won 29-14) and think it wasn't close. The Texans were leading that game deep into the 3rd quarter before running out of offensive juice. That game they had Schaub but not Johnson. The Ravens will play textbook, try to get Rice going and torment Yates. I think they will mostly succeed. Final Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 16.

January 15, 2012: 16:30 EST
New York Giants (+7.5, +305) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -335) O/U 53
Other than gamblers, this seems to be the game that most people think will be the closest. The Giants have an "it" factor with Manning (which I didn't fully appreciate when picking against them last week). Something is off with the Packers, it was too easy early in the year, and things aren't smooth late. Some injuries, too. Maybe some rust today. And cold weather. I'm going to pull the trigger on a Giants upset, they do look like that 2007 team that faced a huge battle every week and seemed beat teams that seemed comfortable (at home and rested). Final Prediction: Giants 34, Packers 31.

Gambling summary :

My 3-game parlay last week only hit one but overall (if 100 units assumed gambled on ATS, Money Line, and O/U) I would have gambled 1200 and ended the week with 1470. A bit below even except for the Broncos money line. This assumes -110 on all lines and O/U.

This week's best bets (for parlay)
Giants ATS
Broncos ATS
NYG/Packers Over