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Friday, November 7, 2014

College Football 2014 - Week Eleven Picks

It's November, crunch time for college football teams and gamblers alike.  A near wash last week, but we're starting to hit on the ATS now 7-3 the past two weeks.

Stats (ATS, S/U upset pick)
Coming into week: -$960 (18-26-1, 3-6)
Previous Week: -$20 (3-2, 0-1)
Season total: -$980 (21-28-1, 3-7)

Lots of BIG games this week with TD or less spreads.  All the games we pick this week will involve ranked teams and conference deciding games.  Here you go!

#24 Georgia Tech (-3.5) at North Carolina State
Georgia Tech has Rambling Wrecked their way through opponents so far this season to a respectable 7-2 record.  North Carolina State has been very uneven, losing their first four ACC games before finally beating Syracuse last week.  A lot of people remember the Wolf Pack's effort against Florida State, that was an anomaly.  I just see this as a good team against a bad one and only have 3.5 points to give.

#12 Baylor (+5.5) at #15 Oklahoma
Oklahoma seems like a team that can beat inferior opponents but has yet to demonstrate they can step up their game against elite ones.  Baylor is the most explosive team in the Big 12, with just one loss in a very sloppy (penalty-filled) game at West Virginia.  Baylor is a better team and I'm getting 5.5 points.

#16 LSU (+6.5) vs #5 Alabama
Riding LSU at home at night is a winning combination.  It paid off for us for Ole Miss.  Alabama has just one win against a ranked team (West Virginia) so they haven't proved they can play at the elite level.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had a solid game here, but 6.5 points given to me is too much to pass up.

#7 Kansas State (+6.5) at #6 TCU
TCU is starting to feel the effects of having a big game every week instead of just two per year in previous conferences.  After a thrilling win at West Virginia, they will have to get their act together quickly against the Wildcats, who are still undefeated in conference play.  Bill Snyder always has his team ready on the road, I think they are able to keep TCU down (and again, I'm getting 6.5 points)

#9 Arizona State (-2) vs #10 Notre Dame
Arizona State fans and players have had this game circled on the calendar for years.  The fabled Irish come west for a showdown in the desert.  The Sun Devils will be ready.  We aren't sure if Notre Dame can play against this style of offense, I'm going to give the two points and see Arizona State by about a TD.

Straight up Special
#7 Kansas State (+200) at #6 TCU
For same reasons above, I see a methodical attack on the Frogs by the Wildcats.  This will come down to the end either way, and I'll take the 2:1 straight up odds that KSU pulls it out!

Just look at the rankings above, we're going to see some poll shift after Saturday (I think rising for the teams in the left column).

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