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Thursday, November 13, 2014

College Football 2014 - Week Twelve Picks

Second week in a row of 3-2 ATS while missing the upset pick.  Somewhat bitter having LSU ATS getting 6.5 to have that crushed in OT.  But that's the breaks.  Here's the stats

Stats (ATS, S/U upset pick)
Coming into week: -$980 (21-28-1, 3-7)
Previous Week: -$20 (3-2, 0-1)
Season total: -$1000 (24-30-1, 3-8)

Tons of juicy lines this week.  A team with a 25 game winning streak that's barely favored over an unranked.  Number 1 is a TD+ dog.  A team that hasn't won an SEC game in years is favored...against a team that almost just beat a Top 10 team.  Guaranteed 5-0 ATS this week, just place these bets now!

Nebraska (+6.5) at Wisconsin
Neither of these teams has too many impressive wins (both play in the B1G where good teams are few and far between).  Nebraska looks like an improving team and is actually in the palyoff hunt.  Wisconsin isn't even ranked.  Yet Nebraska is getting a TD or so.  I see this as a close pick'em so take the Huskers.

Alabama (-8.5) vs Mississippi State
The number one team in the country is getting a lot of points.  But they are not that good.  Suddenly wins over Auburn and LSU aren't so impressive.  Alabama plays two or three of these big games every year.  They'll win by a couple TDs at least.

Florida State (-3) at Miami
Florida State has 25 straight wins.  Straight.  Miami isn't even ranked.  The line would imply this is even.  Miami's home field advantage ain't what it used to be at all.  This just seems like fans overreacting to FSU struggles.  I like the Noles to win and not by less than three. 

Louisiana State (PK) at Arkansas
Arkansas was favored earlier in the week, but pick'em is probably a more accurate representation.  Although Arkansas is on a 17-game losing streak, LSU doesn't seem that dominant and maybe this is a game they think they can win.  They're still behind the talent gap.  The only questions is that if LSU has a let down after last week's let down.  But a team that takes Alabama to overtime should be able to beat Arkansas.

Arizona State (-9.5) at Oregon State
Arizona State is the latest upstart into the national playoff picture.  Oregon State has lost 5 of 6 and beat nobody.  This just seems very easy to win by more than 10 points.  More like 20 points.  Pac 12 teams have had no issues winning on the road.  Easy money.


Straight up Specials

Since we're down on the season in cash, we're going to start the Hail Mary routine.  I see two tempting underdog S/U wins, here we go.

Maryland (+355) vs Michigan State
Maryland losses are pretty good this year.  Michigan State is coming off a devastating loss.  And Maryland is coming off a bye week.  For this money line, it's worth a dice roll.

Rice (+825) at Marshall
Rice is on a six game winning streak, and two of their three losses are to Texas A&M and Notre Dame.  Marshall is undefeated, but for this money line, very tempting.  Rice never lures gamblers, so for 8/1 this is a great play.

Great week for gamblers, sit back and enjoy.  And win with these picks!

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