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Friday, October 21, 2016

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 10/22/2016

I don't always win. Actually, yes, I do always win
The win train continued last week with another 3-2 week.  60% won't give me enough to retire, but we are padding winnings at this point.

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 21-13-1 (+$670, 25.8% profit)

It's been since September 3 I had a losing week.  That's six straight winners (one was a push).  Just saying.

This week I'll be blunt.  Struggled to come up with strong winners.  A lot of fat spreads in big games (just can't go on the Michigan, Ohio State, or Alabama games), or unproven teams squaring off (I'm looking at you Mississippi State vs. Kentucky or Michigan State vs. Maryland).  I think we'll pull out another winner but this is a week to go tread lightly.  Note there is one Game per Power 5 (minus ACC plus AAC).

Wisconsin (-4) at Iowa (Noon EDT)

Iowa's offense is lethargic (former Longhorn coordinator Greg Davis I might add).  Wisconsin has stood toe to toe with Michigan and Ohio State and took them to the end.  I would expect Wisconsin to win by 10 points or more.  The only hesitation is the Ohio State hangover.  But the way Wisconsin plays I don't see that as a factor.  If North Dakota State can come into Iowa City and win, so can Wisconsin.  By a few more points.

Stanford (-1.5) vs. Colorado (3:00 p.m. EDT)

A very intriguing tilt.  A near pick'em game at home, Stanford has Christian McCaffrey as questionable but did well at Notre Dame last week without him.  Meanwhile Colorado is 7-0 ATS.  Yes, 7-0.  They can't keep it up, right?  This is a week Stanford circles the wagons.  Stanford's losses have been against higher flying teams, they'll hold home court here, and you even win on a last second FG or overtime win.

Arkansas (+10.5) at Auburn (6:00 EDT)

This just seems like more of an even matchup to me than 10 points.  Both teams have losses to good teams (Texas A&M both, Clemson, and Alabama).  The game is at Auburn and at night, but I think this goes within a TD at least.  To me, a matchup of good SEC West teams with 2 losses.  Maybe the insiders see something I don't.

Oklahoma (-14) at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EDT)

I've been a Texas Tech picker most of the year, but they are falling apart.  They've given up 92 points and only scored 45 in their last two games.  Outside of Kansas and FCS teams, it's 40+ a game.  Throw in an inspired Baker Mayfield returning to Lubbock and I don't see many defensive stops.  Meanwhile, Tech's offense is slowed with a hurt Pat Mahomes.  This ends up like 60 to 30.

Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EDT)

I don't often go for games with non-contending teams but in absence of anything else.  East Carolina has lost four straight games and is on the road.  In those losses they've given up about 46 points per game.  They also dealt with Hurricane Matthew last week which was disruptive.  They haven't won since September 10.  Cincinnati has lost two straight but seem like the more talented team.  And it's just a FG to win.  Go with the Bearcats.

Enjoy your Saturday of football!

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