J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 2016-17 Bowl Upset Special

I like money.  Let me make you some.

After a romp in the regular season, we turn our attention to Bowl Season.  These games are difficult games to pick, because of the layoff, coach defections, and unpredictability in inspiration by the teams.  That's where I step in to give you the edge.

One final look at regular season performance, nothing short of solid and profitable:

Summary:
Final Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 37-31-2 (+$290, 3.8% profit)

Note that the profit takes into account house take at $10 for every $100 wagered.

This is the first of two Bowl Predicts.  This game focuses on straight up upsets.  No point spreads, but rather games that I've pegged as underdogs winning.  Put $100 on each and if you snag two of five, you get a very nice profit.

December 27, 2016 (Noon EST) - Heart of Texas Bowl, Dallas, TX
North Texas (+320) vs. Army

These teams already played once and North Texas rolled.  People look at UNT and their scant five wins and dismiss them, however Army isn't world beaters.  They did beat Navy, although Navy had a very inexperienced QB and was beat up all over the field.  And how much did that take out of the team?  This game is in my home city of Dallas, at over 3 to 1, I'll see if North Texas can put together a solid effort.

December 29, 2016 (8:00 EST) - Belk Bowl, Charlotte, NC
Arkansas (+225) vs.Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech hasn't defeated a Bowl team since October (0-2 since).  Arkansas is a Jeckyl and Hyde team, but typically plays well in Bowls under Bret Bielema (2-0 and both were blowouts).  Couple that with historic strong play in bowl games for the SEC, and getting this money line seems like a nice play.

December 30, 2016 (8:00 EST) - Orange Bowl, Miami Gardens, FL
Florida State (+225) vs. Michigan

Michigan quietly lost two of their last three and never really played that well away from the Big House (roll over against Rutgers withstanding).  Meanwhile Florida State has won six of seven, the one loss a close one to ACC Champion Clemson.  FSU is at home and with a chip on their shoulder.  Michigan felt like they should have beat Ohio State and perhaps made the playoffs despite a loss.  Given the money line, taking the 'Noles.

December 31, 2016 (11:00 EST) - Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL
Louisville (+140) vs. LSU

There were times this year in which pundits noted that Louisville was the best betting matchup against invincible Alabama.  Then Louisville dropped their last two inexplicably to 17 point or more underdogs.  This is the game they rally; they're not that bad.  LSU had a roller coaster season shedding a head coach and playing without an effective Leonard Fournette (who is out of this game).  Lamar Jackson is the best player on the field and Louisville wins it (as a slight underdog).

January 2, 2017 (1:00 EST) - Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Western Michigan (+260) vs. Wisconsin

A few factors at play here, one is the Western Michigan is the team with something to prove.  Wisconsin is licking their wounds after a tough Big 10 title game and season of close losses to the top teams.  This game will have very few fans in attendance (relatively) as both teams have a ways to travel and outside of Southfork Ranch, Dallas isn't necessarily a tourist hot spot.  Combine all that with an early kickoff and Wisconsin could be lethargic.  Given the money line play, I like this play.

Coming up next, Top 5 point spread games!

- JR

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/19/2016

In a small nosedive, but that stops this week

Well things are getting tighter here at the end of the year; the oddsmakers are catching up to me!  Could have easily one 3-2 last week if not for a fourth quarter collapse and a push.  But it is what it is:

Summary:
Previous Week: 1-3-1 (-230)
Season: 29-24-2 (+$260, 4.7% profit)

I'm mostly intrigued by a lot of close point spreads for big conference teams.  Always feel like that enables a good chance to win. 

Northwestern (-3) at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)

Northwestern is playing really well late in the year as one of the most improved teams in the Big 10.  5-1 ATS the past couple of months, took Ohio State to the wire.  Minnesota defense is a little soft, wo look for a higher scoring game with the Wildcats winning by a TD.


Iowa State (+4) vs Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

Iowa State is improving, and even in losses to good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State) has kept it within a TD.  Texas Tech is up and down, and the weather will be cold and the wind will be howling.  That could neutralize the passing game and give Iowa State a good chance to control the ball against the worst defense in the Big 12.  I like taking the points.

Notre Dame (-2) vs Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

An odd spread given the awful season Notre Dame is having vs. the surprising good season Virginia Tech is having.  Do the bettors know something or is this chasing bad money?  Virginia Tech has not covered the last 3 spreads, and this is a big stage for the young Hokies.  At this tight line, Notre Dame, at home, can win by 3 and cover.  I'm going Irish.

Washington State (+6) at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)

Washington State is hitting on all cylinders at this point in the season with eight straight wins.  And are getting nearly a TD against a good, but still unproven Colorado.  The Cougars are putting up tons of points and it seems like they can win this straight up.  I'll take the points.

Arkansas (+2) at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)


It seems like bettors are remembering the one good Mississippi State game and forgetting all the forgettable ones.  Arkansas is a better team.  They need this win for bowl positioning and won't let it get away.  The Hogs go down to Stark-Vegas and take care of the business trip.

Enjoy your chilly Saturday of College Football!

-JR

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/5/2016

J.R. says "Don't mess with [betting on] Texas"

Sounding like a broken record, but another winning week last Saturday.  In this game, you take your 60% where you can get them.  I'm done betting on Texas Longhorns games, you would think if you just bet home vs. away you'd win every time but too unpredictable.

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 26-18-1 (+$620, 12.5% profit)

As the College Football Playoff poll is released, there is sudden focus on the eye test where teams on the outside looking in may look to push the score up a bit more than in previous weeks with the new urgency.  Teams in the playoff suddenly are targets to upsets.  All that being said, I like five underdogs this week, all are between 2.5 and 7.5 points, many at home.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Miami (12:30 p.m. EDT)

This is a game of teams going in opposite directions.  Once the competition stepped up, Miami has stepped aside.  Meanwhile Pittsburgh is playing some good football, with a narrow loss to impressive Virginia Tech and a win over Penn State.  Meanwhile, Miami has lost four straight both straight up and ATS.  I like the better football team here, and that's Pittsburgh.  Home field is almost irrelevant since kickoff is so early.

Oklahoma State (+3) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EDT)

Oklahoma State has won four straight Big 12 games, including a throttling of previously undefeated West Virginia.  Kansas State is well coached, but under talented.  I would nod the Cowboys by a point or three, so if you're giving me points, I'll take the Pokes, even in Manhattan.

Arkansas (+4) vs Florida (3:30 p.m. EDT)

This is an SEC East vs. West play.  The East seldom beats the West, and Arkansas is a solid team.  They're coming off a humiliating loss at Auburn and will have something to prove.  Florida just keeps on playing defense and winning, but, again, give me some points at home with an East team playing at West, I'll go West.

Kentucky (+2.5) vs Georgia (7:30 p.m. EDT)

What is it going to take to get bettors to believe in Kentucky?  Three straight conference wins, 5-1 in their last six games, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile Georgia is struggling, which is what happens when you have a freshman QB and new head coach.  Georgia hasn't won on a Saturday since September 17, a one point squeaker over awful Missouri.  If you look at the rosters, Georgia should win this.  But Kentucky is playing some good football.

LSU (+7.5) vs Alabama (8:00 p.m. EDT)

It's rare that Alabama runs the SEC gauntlet unscathred, there's always a tough road game where they play a bit below par and the other team steps up.  LSU is playing well under Coach Orgeron and would love to play spoiler to their rival.  Given the betting line just above a TD, I'll take my chances on a wild game in the Swamp and a Tigers cover.

It's November, the peak of College Football season!  Enjoy your Saturday!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 10/22/2016

I don't always win. Actually, yes, I do always win

The win train continued last week with another 3-2 week.  60% won't give me enough to retire, but we are padding winnings at this point.

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 21-13-1 (+$670, 25.8% profit)

It's been since September 3 I had a losing week.  That's six straight winners (one was a push).  Just saying.

This week I'll be blunt.  Struggled to come up with strong winners.  A lot of fat spreads in big games (just can't go on the Michigan, Ohio State, or Alabama games), or unproven teams squaring off (I'm looking at you Mississippi State vs. Kentucky or Michigan State vs. Maryland).  I think we'll pull out another winner but this is a week to go tread lightly.  Note there is one Game per Power 5 (minus ACC plus AAC).

Wisconsin (-4) at Iowa (Noon EDT)

Iowa's offense is lethargic (former Longhorn coordinator Greg Davis I might add).  Wisconsin has stood toe to toe with Michigan and Ohio State and took them to the end.  I would expect Wisconsin to win by 10 points or more.  The only hesitation is the Ohio State hangover.  But the way Wisconsin plays I don't see that as a factor.  If North Dakota State can come into Iowa City and win, so can Wisconsin.  By a few more points.

Stanford (-1.5) vs. Colorado (3:00 p.m. EDT)

A very intriguing tilt.  A near pick'em game at home, Stanford has Christian McCaffrey as questionable but did well at Notre Dame last week without him.  Meanwhile Colorado is 7-0 ATS.  Yes, 7-0.  They can't keep it up, right?  This is a week Stanford circles the wagons.  Stanford's losses have been against higher flying teams, they'll hold home court here, and you even win on a last second FG or overtime win.

Arkansas (+10.5) at Auburn (6:00 EDT)

This just seems like more of an even matchup to me than 10 points.  Both teams have losses to good teams (Texas A&M both, Clemson, and Alabama).  The game is at Auburn and at night, but I think this goes within a TD at least.  To me, a matchup of good SEC West teams with 2 losses.  Maybe the insiders see something I don't.

Oklahoma (-14) at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EDT)

I've been a Texas Tech picker most of the year, but they are falling apart.  They've given up 92 points and only scored 45 in their last two games.  Outside of Kansas and FCS teams, it's 40+ a game.  Throw in an inspired Baker Mayfield returning to Lubbock and I don't see many defensive stops.  Meanwhile, Tech's offense is slowed with a hurt Pat Mahomes.  This ends up like 60 to 30.

Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EDT)

I don't often go for games with non-contending teams but in absence of anything else.  East Carolina has lost four straight games and is on the road.  In those losses they've given up about 46 points per game.  They also dealt with Hurricane Matthew last week which was disruptive.  They haven't won since September 10.  Cincinnati has lost two straight but seem like the more talented team.  And it's just a FG to win.  Go with the Bearcats.

Enjoy your Saturday of football!

Week 10 Upset Specials

This is getting ugly.  Another 0-3 week, this week the teams didn't even really cover (maybe UTEP).  So down to -$8,700.  I'm going to have to start selling oil fields if I don't turn this around.  The good news is, a couple of hits, and the debt goes away.  Again, the strategy is pick TD or more underdogs straight up for $1G, three a week...

Last week I stayed in Texas, I'm looking at more Texas teams this week again...

Mississippi State (+7, +250) vs. Texas A&M
Taking the SEC home team laying points last week killed me, but this team is ranked.  A&M struggled at Ole Miss on the road, MSU might be chippy after last week.  Maybe I'm the last guy buying into A&M, but I'll take a gamble this week.

Texas (+7, +225) at Texas Tech
Texas variability is wide.  They might show up this week after the near escape in Lawrence.  I've seen nothing to justify this pick, but it's rare that Texas gives points to Tech, even in Lubbock.  So I'm going to take it.

Tulsa (+9, +310) at Arkansas
Okay, not Texas but neighboring states.  Not sure where Arkansas is at, but loss to Ole Miss at home and now Tulsa comes a calling which hasn't lost since Labor Day.  I have a feeling Tulsa might have more to prove.

Interesting fact about these games, all started well below a TD and grew, as if odds makers knew they'd be close, then bettors took the lead on the favorites.

I really need to hit two of these to get back in the game.

Week 5 Upset Specials

Big hits last week folks, with Kansas State (+425) and Oregon State (+250), I turned my $3,000 bet into $5,750 in profits.($6,750 minus the $1,000 lost on Kansas).  Now up $3,050 for the season.

Had a huge party for the Cowboys game to celebrate last week, we took care of 'dem Buccaneers.  But I digress.

I'm strong on this week's picks, plus I got a huge underdog teaser.


Season +$3,050, 3-6


Pick #1
Arkansas (+420, +13) at Texas A&M
Texas A&M still is finding identity, can't look into much what happened in the rolling of SMU or SC State.  Arkansas brings a very wounded mentality to College Station and has a history of beating these guys up here at the new Texas Stadium.  Juicy money line is too good to pass up, Arkansas salvages a win here.

Pick #2
Rice (+260, +7.5) at Houston
Houston may be very, very bad.  Rice is battle tested and had some success in this rivalry.  I would have put it at a pick'em but bettors don't seem to appreciate the Owls.

Pick #3
Wisconsin (+395, +11.5) at Nebraska
Both these teams have stumbled out of the gate, particularly in west coast road games.  Another game I see even, but I get 11.5 points and a juicy money line?  Sign me up please, Go Sconnie!

Pick #4 (special edition for only $100)
Ole Miss (+4100, +30) at Alabama
Okay, I know, small chance of happening.  But maybe Alabama relaxes a little bit after some of their tough games, maybe Ole Miss isn't that bad with just the big loss to Texas in a game they were sloppy with the ball.  Just saying it could happen.  Alabama has looked a little underwhelming in some of their non-marquee matchups, oil men like me use venture capital for big hits, here we go!