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Wednesday, October 4, 2017

College Football Picks - 2017 Week Six

Finally, a decent week!
Well well well, Bulldog Babe had an off day (well, we can consider 3-2 off for her.  Although the 1-4 against the spread will dent her unbelievable streak.  The most important thing is that both my Longhorns, and her Bulldogs won conference road games.  On to the next.

So now our weekly take on last week and this week, in five bullets:

1) It's time we realize USC was never that good to begin with.  Scuffled with Western Michigan and Texas at home.  Washington State is dangerous, but also not world beaters.  We'll see as they're on the card again this week.
2) Clemson hasn't missed a beat.  This years team may be better than last years because of their winning mentality.  Remember they almost lost 3 times last year (last second wins vs. Alabama and NC State).  I have them at number 1.
3) Tennessee and LSU may be looking for new coaches soon.  Wow on LSU.  Literally a third of the way into a new season.
4) I'm calling it now on the Big 10 being overrated.  There's four good teams in the Top 10. None of the other ten teams are getting votes except a couple for Michigan State (which lost by 20 at home to Notre Dame).  Most only have two games against the others so 10-2 is worst case scenario. Until they all lose their bowl games.  Again.
5) Baylor is the only winless FBS team at 0-5 and is now 1-11 in their last 12 games.  Their only win was against Boise State in the Cactus Bowl. Go figure.

I always get the Georgia game right
This blog will typically pick five games, including the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs by default (unless bad matchups).  This week we pick six games because of the Miami at Florida State Hurricane Irma makeup game.  For each week's games, we give you final scores, so you can do your own ATS and S/U comparison. We go three games before Saturday, and all road favorites.

Our two analysts are J.R. Ewing, Texas Longhorns fan and general loud mouth.  And we feature big time Georgia Bulldog fan Bulldog Babe (BDB) (@bulldogbabexo) as a guest expert.

Last week
JR: 5-0 S/U, 3-2 ATS
BDB: 3-2 S/U, 1-4 ATS

Season to date:
JR: 14-10 S/U, 12-12 ATS
BDB: 15-9 S/U, 15-9 ATS

Both JR and BDB nailed Georgia, Clemson, and Miami winning.  BDB upset of Texas didn't come to fruition (ha ha) and JR correctly picked the Washington State upset (I've seen Mike Leach win too many games like that.  Overall we're pretty close, BDB has the distinct edge when looking against the spread as she is hitting 62.5%

Spreads are from a great pick site, Capped Sports





Game 1: Georgia (-17.5) at Vanderbilt (12:00 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
Georgia has been a covering machine.  I'm tempted to think "they're due for an off day" but until I see it, I won't believe it.  They're balanced, with good running backs to provide stability to a precocious quarterback.  Their defense is ball hawks and they have an amazing killer instinct.  Another easy win.
Georgia 37, Vanderbilt 10


Bulldog Babe: 
Georgia at Vanderbilt, another SEC matchup this week. Georgia is off to their best start in a long time while Vanderbilt has had only one impressive win and that was the upset against Kansas State. After getting completely mauled by Alabama a few weeks ago, they’re mentally not ready for the rest of the year. Georgia is coming off a dominating win, shutting out Tennessee in Knoxville for the first time since 1994. That’s very impressive and i’m not only saying that because i’m a dawg ;) if Georgia keeps their winning ways up, I think they’ll be the biggest threat for Alabama and the CFB playoff. Georgia wins this one.
Georgia 37, Vanderbilt 7



Game 2: Miami (-3.5) at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
Mark Richt has Miami looking like the dominant team of the 80s and 90s.  The win at Duke was impressive.  Florida State was a last second drive from being 0-3.  I just don't see how the 'Noles hang close.  Miami has lost seven straight in this matchup, but that ends now.  They come out and make a statement.
Miami 31, Florida State 17

Bulldog Babe:
Miami at Florida State this is an in state rivalry going back a long time, it's always a great showing. Rivalry games have a lot more intensity than other games and this Saturday won't be any different. Florida State losing their quarterback in week 1 has hurt them a lot and it’s kinda surprising to see considering how well they’ve done over the last few seasons. After seeing how they’ve done since losing their starting QB, I think Miami wins this one.
Miami 30, Florida State 17



Game 3: West Virginia (+14) at Texas Christian (Saturday 3:30 p.m. EDT) 

JR Ewing:
This is a matchup of two solid Big 12 teams.  West Virginia lost to a solid Virginia Tech team as an opener, but has since scored 56 or more points in three straight.  TCU had the big upset of Oklahoma State, but I think we're putting a bit too much faith in that result.  TCU wins, but it's much closer than two TD.
TCU 38, West Virginia 35

Bulldog Babe:
West Virginia at TCU will be another interesting game. TCU has been strong and West Virginia has been promising, it’s a perfect AP Top 25 matchup. TCU is undefeated and they have worked hard to be undefeated, I think they continue their winning ways and they have a great game this weekend. TCU wins,
TCU 27, West Virginia 14




Game 4: Kansas State (+4) at Texas (7:00 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
So for the record I'm 3-1 picking Texas ATS so listen closely.  These are two lower tier bowl teams.  Texas defense is solid, offense not so much.  But at home they can get it going (43.5 PPG).  Kansas State is your typical Kansas State team.  Fundamentally sound. well coached if not undetalented players.  They fight you every game.  This series has been won by the home team for six straight years.  
Texas 21, Kansas State 13


Bulldog Babe:
Kansas State at Texas will be interesting, I think. Texas is coming off a dominating win against Iowa State and I think they keep up their winning ways. Kansas State is 3-1, but looking at their stats from the season, I’m not impressed with how Jesse Ertz has only completed half of his passes as to where Shane Buechele has completed over half of his passes. Texas wins this one
Texas 24, Kansas State 17




Game 5: Michigan State (+13.5) at Michigan (7:30 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
Rivalry.  And one that Michigan State usually plays pretty well (7-2 in the last 9). Michigan is the better team and at home, so I can't pick a straight up upset.  I do think that this will be a very competitive game.  Michigan runs away at the end a bit, but not by as many points as you might think.
Michigan 28, Michigan State 21

Bulldog Babe:
Michigan State at Michigan is one classic rivalry that I think everyone secretly enjoys a little bit. Michigan is ranked #7 on the AP poll and they always look to beat their little brother in something, so I think that happens again this time. Michigan wins.
Michigan 20, Michigan State 14




Game 6: Washington State (+2) at Oregon (8:00 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
Oregon hasn't looked like world beaters, which makes this line look puzzling.  But Mike Leach led teams typically go see saw, so experts are predicting a down week (in Autzen stadium, a tough place).  I'm tempted to go Washington State again, but like I just said, I see Leach lay duds after a big win.  Oregon wins this one by a FG.
Oregon 31, Washington State 28

Bulldog Babe:
Washington State at Oregon will be interesting considering the way the media is pursuing this game. Oregon is a 1.5 point favorite, but Washington State is ranked #11 and undefeated. I’m not buying that Oregon is a favorite, mainly because I don’t really think they’ve done a lot this year. Washington State wins.
Washington State 27, Oregon 17




More tragic news this week for the massacre in Las Vegas.  Unbelievable in every aspect.  Prayers to the victims, their families, and America. Hopefully college football provides a day of respite from a society that is tough to bear sometimes.

- JR and BDB

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