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Wednesday, November 8, 2017

College Football Picks - 2017 Week Eleven

Texas no longer worthy of picking
We are in the home stretch of the college football season.  In two weekends, we'll be to the big Thanksgiving finale of rivalries, conference championship posturing, and yes, playoff talk.  There are some huge games this week that will help separate contenders to pretenders.  And we have you covered picking all the big games.  But enjoy this fans. Weather is getting cooler.  Teams are hitting their stride.  And it's going to be an entertaining final month.

So now our weekly take on last week and this week, in five bullets:

1) It seems like this is the year of conference parity. Other than the SEC which has two clear an away great teams, the rest literally have 4 or 5 that could win the conference.
2) The Big 10 is deeper than I have been giving it credit.  If Michigan State and Iowa can beat Penn State and Ohio State, then legit, it's got more than just a handful of good teams.  I still have an eye on Wisconsin for weak schedule.  I think if they win the Big 10, they'll get trucked by whomever they face.
3) Alabama will actually face a good team on the road.  Vanderbilt and Texas A&M is all they've faced in enemy territory. Since they don't play non-conference true road games by policy, they really limit their exposure to losses well with only four on the year.  And reap the benefits of 7 home games plus a neutral.
4) Road games are always dangerous.  Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, Washington all facing big tests.  Expect a shake up.
5) The Miami vs. Notre Dame game brings back so many amazing memories from the 80s and 90s.  Jimmy Johnson, Lou Holtz, the Ibis with the fire extinguisher, the "Catholics vs. Convicts" T-Shirts.  Those were good times.

Don't doubt the Bulldogs.  The team, or me, the Babe.
This blog will typically pick five games, including the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs by default (unless bad matchups).  We try and go for one game in each of the Power 5 conferences, sometimes skipping one that might not have a marquee.  For each week's games, we give you final scores, so you can do your own ATS and S/U comparison. Georgia faces its biggest test this year at Auburn while Texas faces Big 12 punching bag Kansas.  That game will not be picked.  So many good games to pick from, but we definitely spread the love around the country!

Our two analysts are J.R. Ewing, Texas Longhorns fan and general loud mouth.  And we feature big time Georgia Bulldog fan Bulldog Babe (BDB) (@bulldogbabexo). 

Last week
JR: 4-1 S/U, 3-1 ATS
BDB: 5-0 S/U, 4-0 ATS

Season to date:
JR: 29-20 S/U, 27-20 ATS
BDB: 39-11 S/U, 36-13 ATS

Last week BDB missed like nothing.  She never misses nothing.  Like seriously?  Almost 75% against he spread?  How is this happening?  In two to three sentences she's telling us every week what's going to happen.  Heck, I'm happy at 7 games over .500.  But I'm so far behind.  Oh well, credit where credit is due.  No truth to the rumor I'm going to start a picks service with her as my expert!  Meanwhile JR only missed Oklahoma State.  Which could have gone either way.

Spreads are from a great pick site, Capped Sports



Game 1: Washington (-6) at Stanford (10:30 EST)

JR Ewing:
Stanford is a very tough team at home.  All three losses on the road so far this year, and they have a history of spoiling championship runs in Palo Alto.  This week should be no different.  They are well coached and Washington isn't really tested.  I see a Stanford win straight up. 
Stanford 31, Washington 24

Bulldog Babe: 
I feel like this is gonna be an easy one to predict mainly because of the teams’ record on the season. Washington is a really strong team this year, and as Ohio State proved in 2014, you can still get in the CFB Playoff being ranked below the top six. I think Washington has a good resume this year and they will win this weekend.
Washington 27, Stanford 14



Game 2: Michigan State (+14.5) at Ohio State (Noon EST)

JR Ewing:
Michigan State coming off a big win.  Ohio State coming off a big loss.  The Big 10 has had more surprises than I expected.  I think Ohio State exerts their will at home and wins but close. I think too many people are seeing the vintage Buckeyes and not the ones that can get frustrated offensively. 
Ohio State 31, Michigan State 24

Bulldog Babe:
This matchup will be interesting to see the outcome of, considering Ohio State is a 14.5 point favorite. I don’t think it’ll be that easy for them, I think Michigan State will give them a lot of competition. Will they win? Time will tell, but I optimistically think they will pull out the win. 28-17.
Ohio State 28, Michigan State 17



Game 3: Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn (3:30 EST)

JR Ewing:
Here we go for Georgia.  This is their biggest test.  Well, since they went to Notre Dame.  Auburn is tough, but really has just one good win against Mississippi State.  I've been on the Georgia train, only picking them to win close in large point spreads. They'll be ready to invade Jordan Hare Stadium and win a close game.
Georgia 24, Auburn 16

Bulldog Babe:
This game, in my opinion, will be the best of the SEC games this weekend. Georgia is crushing their opponents left and right and that week 2 win against Notre Dame is looking better and better as the weeks go by. Everybody thinks Auburn is gonna ruin their season, I don’t think so. Auburn won’t be able to keep up with Georgia’s run game and they will be intimidated. I think Georgia will win this one and continue their dream season.
Georgia 37, Auburn 14



Game 4: Texas Christian (+6.5) at Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)

JR Ewing:
Oklahoma is the current and future king/champ of the Big 12 until someone stops them.  TCU is a good road team, but I think Oklahoma is getting better.  They have so many good wins at Ohio State and Oklahoma State.  They'll focus in this on and win comfortably.
Oklahoma 41, Texas Christian 30

Bulldog Babe:
This matchup will be one of the best of the weekend, in my opinion. It consists of the first two teams out of the College Football Playoff top four. I️ think Oklahoma has more than proved themselves, but I think TCU has the stronger team. So I’m taking TCU in this one.
Texas Christian 37, Oklahoma 27



Game 5: Notre Dame (-3) at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)

JR Ewing:
To be honest, I don't see either of these teams as Top 5.  That being said, Miami being undefeated seems to be overlooked by experts.  Mark Richt has this team believing and Notre Dame will have a stiff road test.  I think the Hurricanes announce their arrival back on the national scene with a close victory.
Miami 31, Notre Dame 30

Bulldog Babe:
This will be one of the top two matchups of the weekend. Notre Dame still looming with the one loss to Georgia earlier in the season and with the second rankings out, it looks like they have the third seed in the CFB Playoff locked down (unless a major upset happens of course). Miami is a dream team this year, like I said last week. I’m so excited to see what Coach Richt is doing with that program. I don’t wanna pick against them, but it’s gonna have to happen this weekend. Notre Dame has a stronger team on both sides of the ball, give me the Irish in this one.
Notre Dame 37, Miami 24



Bulldog Babe and I want to give a huge shout out to our Veterans on this Veterans Day weekend.  It's the Home of the Free because of the Brave.  My grandfather was of the Greatest Generation in World War II and both of us have cousins who have dedicated their life to being in the service and have our respect.  Thank a veteran this weekend and fly the American Flag proudly.

- JR and BDB

2 comments:

  1. Yeah but no mention of the death of the father of stadium nachos this week? Also, for a friend, would like to know if Texas can cover that huge spread with the backups they are running out there this week.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Missed a chance to weave the nacho story in for sure! Oh yes, Texas covers. Kansas gets 0 points. Texas. 42.

    ReplyDelete