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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Thursday, November 2, 2017

College Football Picks - 2017 Week Ten

I will never pick against Texas again
Is it really Week Ten? Like double digits? But it seems like the season just started!?  Nevertheless, as evidenced by the first College Football Playoff poll, we are entering the stretch.  It is November.  Rivalries are kicking up.  And conference races are about to be decided.

So now our weekly take on last week and this week, in five bullets:

1) Ohio State with their backs against the wall once again take hold of the Big 10 East race.  With a two game lead over Michigan, tiebreaker on Penn State, and Michigan State at home, they're in the drivers seat.
2) Can we take Iowa State seriously yet?  Having defeated both Oklahoma and TCU, they're in the middle of the Big 12 race. The Big 12 so deep, though, they still have to play another Top 15 team, and then road trips to previously ranked West Virginia and Kansas State.  I do think the Big 12's depth is it's biggest barrier against a playoff appearance.
3) Alabama has no wins over a team currently ranked this year.
4) We had our first major program head coaching axe to fall at Florida. Now it becomes a land grab, with other schools (Tennessee, Texas A+M, or Nebraska) behind the coach hunt curve if they do indeed part ways.
5) Miami is back on top for teams in the state of Florida.  First test (really, they've played no one decent) this week vs. Virginia Tech, then Notre Dame next week.  I hope the "Catholics vs. Convicts" 30 for 30 plays all week next week.

I'm hot, baby, don't doubt!
This blog will typically pick five games, including the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs by default (unless bad matchups).  We try and go for one game in each of the Power 5 conferences, sometimes skipping one that might not have a marquee.  For each week's games, we give you final scores, so you can do your own ATS and S/U comparison. Georgia faces a scrappy South Carolina team while Texas faces their 4th Top 12 opponent in seven games at TCU. It's that time of year when finding only five huge games is difficult.  LSU/Bama and Michigan State/Penn State didn't even make the cut!

Our two analysts are J.R. Ewing, Texas Longhorns fan and general loud mouth.  And we feature big time Georgia Bulldog fan Bulldog Babe (BDB) (@bulldogbabexo). 

Last week
JR: 2-3 S/U, 2-2 ATS
BDB: 5-0 S/U, 4-1 ATS

Season to date:
JR: 25-19 S/U, 24-19 ATS
BDB: 34-11 S/U, 32-13 ATS

Last week BDB only missed a Georgia cover.  She had them by 13 against a 13.5 point spread.  That's it.  She has been amazing, almost 75% ATS, not missing any straight up either!  J.R. did miserable picking Baylor and West Virginia and Penn State (although Nittany covered)

Spreads are from a great pick site, Capped Sports

Game 1: South Carolina (+23.5) at Georgia (3:30 EDT)

JR Ewing:
Georgia just keeps rolling.  A couple of non-covers, but only the one tight game in South Bend.  They have been starting fast (sign of a good game plan and well prepared players) and this week will be no different.  South Carolina has six wins, but none are overwhelmingly impressive.  Georgia wins but under the number.
Georgia 34, South Carolina 14

Bulldog Babe: 
The Gamecocks are Georgia’s second to last SEC East matchup of the season, but it won’t be that easy for South Carolina. They’re headed into a tough fan environment to play a team that is undefeated and statistically one of the best teams in the nation. South Carolina players have already given some bulletin board material on this weekend’s game, I feel like that will once again give the Dawgs a lot of motivation. Georgia wins.
Georgia 34, South Carolina 17

Game 2: Clemson (-7) at North Carolina State (3:30 EDT)

JR Ewing:
Clemson gets some new life from the playoff committee overlooking their single loss.  They're on a mission now and it starts in Raleigh.  This was a tough matchup for them last year, that will be this year, also.  Clemson wins, but close. 
Clemson 26, North Carolina State 23

Bulldog Babe:
NC State almost upset Clemson last year, but they fell just short of that feat. I don’t think they’ll come close this time around. Clemson is so strong on both sides of the ball and they have completely exceeded my expectations, despite the one loss against Syracuse. Clemson wins it this weekend.
Clemson 30, North Carolina State 14

Game 3: Oklahoma (+3) at Oklahoma State (4:00 EDT)

JR Ewing:
It's Bedlam.  One of the best rivalries in the Big 12 and the teams have the talent to match.  Oklahoma has been sputtering a bit, Oklahoma State is in a tough stretch of their schedule.  I like the home team here.  Better offense.  They're hungry.
Oklahoma State 37, Oklahoma 31

Bulldog Babe:
The two teams of Oklahoma are completely dominating this year, despite both of them having one loss on the season. Oklahoma was put as the first team out in the CFB playoff rankings and I think if they continue their winning ways, they have a case to sneak in the top 4. Baker Mayfield has a case for the Heisman as well, he’s a great quarterback who I think has been doing so well this season and it will continue into this weekend. Oklahoma wins.
Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 17

Game 4: Texas (+7) at Texas Christian (7:15 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
Remember when I said I wouldn't pick against Texas again (see caption above)?  I lied.  After all, I am J.R. Ewing so that shouldn't be a surprise.  TCU has had Texas' number the past few years.  None of the games close.  And TCU is wounded.  The Frogs roll the Horns.
Texas Christian 35, Texas 7

Bulldog Babe:
TCU has exceeded my expectations at the halfway point in the season. They have one loss on the season and they have talent on both sides of the ball. Texas has been sloppy from start to finish. Currently at 4-4, they’re struggling just to become bowl eligible. I think TCU will come out and dominate this game against Texas.
Texas Christian 37, Texas 7

Game 5: Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Miami (8:00 p.m. EDT)

JR Ewing:
This is a sneaky greatest game of the day.  Both of these teams have ACC title aspirations and deservedly so.  Both are well coached (with new coaches).  Miami may be getting their 1980s swagger back.  At night in the Orange Bowl (or whatever their stadium is).  Miami wins and puts out notice they are a force to be reckoned with.
Miami 31, Virginia Tech 14

Bulldog Babe:
I am LOVING what Coach Richt is doing at Miami. Leaving Georgia has worked to his benefit and it’s so awesome seeing him do so well in his second year. Miami definitely deserves all of the hype they’re receiving. Virginia Tech in my opinion is one of my top 2 one loss teams. Even they have exceeded my expectations on this season. This is a tough matchup to predict the winner, to be honest. I gotta go with my gut feeling, I think Miami will win it but in another close game.
Miami 27, Virginia Tech 20

November is the best time of the college football calendar!  Have a fun Saturday!

- JR and BDB

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