Who am I?

I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

Follow me on Twitter: @lhd_on_sports

Labels

LHD_PotW (299) MLB (116) NFL (111) NCAA (99) NBA (50) NFL Playoffs (47) NHL (41)

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

College Football Picks - 2017 Week Twelve

Yeah haw, this has been a season of making dough
After a huge week of key matchups that shook up the college football rankings, we get a little break this week.  Not that anybody wanted it.  Most teams are gearing up for their rivalry games on Thanksgiving weekend, then many for conference title games the following week.  Meanwhile, the air is crisp, the pads are popping, there is still a lot that could go wrong for a number of teams this weekend.

So now our weekly take on last week and this week, in five bullets:

1) One main reason to discount early polls...just wait until they play the games.  Teams get better or worse over the season. Have off weeks.  Injuries.  By the end, it all works out.
2) The only comment I'll make about the college football playoff is that I hope the committee avoids two teams from a single conference.  Exception might be an 11-1 non SEC East champion Alabama.  Otherwise, it should basically be four conference champions. Don't care who, don't care from which conference.
3) The college football coaches free-for-all got serious quickly, with Tennessee joining Florida in the immediate hunt.  To go with Ole Miss.  Maybe Arkansas and Texas A+M.  And that's just one conference.  This year is going to be a doozy.
4) Last week we noted road games are always dangerous.  Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, Washington all faced big tests.  Only Alabama won.  Barely.
5) The three teams with the most to lose this week are Wisconsin, Georgia, and TCU.  All are favored, but face dangerous conference opponents.  The pressure is getting intense!

My Dawgs may be down, but just like me, they'll be back!
This blog will typically pick five games, including the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs by default (unless bad matchups).  We try and go for one game in each of the Power 5 conferences, sometimes skipping one that might not have a marquee.  For each week's games, we give you final scores, so you can do your own ATS and S/U comparison. Coming off a difficult loss, Georgia faces a beatable but dangerous Kentucky team.  Texas is fighting for bowl eligibility with yet another tough Big 12 conference game in Morgantown, WV.   We also add a Group of 5 game, there really aren't that much to pick from.

Our two analysts are J.R. Ewing, Texas Longhorns fan and general loud mouth.  And we feature big time Georgia Bulldog fan "Bulldog Babe" (BDB) (@bulldogbabexo). Can we give some love to BDB's hot new profile photo? A tribute to T-Roy from Montgomery Gentry.

Last week
JR: 4-1 S/U, 3-2 ATS
BDB: 2-3 S/U, 1-4 ATS

Season to date:
JR: 33-21 S/U, 30-22 ATS
BDB: 41-14 S/U, 37-17 ATS

Last week BDB had by far her worse week.  It was just one of those times when nothing goes right.  Her season numbers are still amazing at over 68% ATS.  You could make good money in Vegas on that!  .  Both pickers missed Georgia and Michigan State ATS.  J.R. successfully picked upsets (S/U) for Miami and Stanford while also getting Oklahoma (for which DBD picked a TCU upset).  BDB last minute changed her pick to Miami (see below) salvaging one ATS and another S/U.
Will she do better this week? My money is on "yes".

Spreads are from a great pick site, Capped Sports



Game 1: Michigan (+7.5) at Wisconsin (Noon EST)

JR Ewing:
I've been a Wisconsin doubter all year. Not for anything other than they haven't played anybody.  I guess Michigan is anybody, but they are still barely in the Top 25.  Wisconsin gets the game at Madison and the crowd will be pumped.  I like Michigan in the role of spoiler here.  They have a variance on performance wider than most teams.  Harbaugh has them ready and they win. 
Michigan 28, Wisconsin 24

Bulldog Babe: 
Michigan @ Wisconsin: I think this is gonna be a good game. Wisconsin is having one strong season and it’s very impressive! I don’t think Michigan will be able to keep up with Wisconsin, but they will keep it close. Wisconsin will win though. 32-28.
Wisconsin 32, Michigan 28



Game 2: Texas (+3.5) at West Virginia (Noon EST)

JR Ewing:
As mentioned Texas is fighting for bowl eligibility.  Outside of Week 1, all their losses are to teams in the Top 13, two in OT, only one at home.  This is the time that Coach Herman has them ready for an upset.  And the point spread is tight on the road for a team ranked in the AP poll.  Texas wins a close one.  Maybe overtime.
Texas 28, West Virginia 26

Bulldog Babe:
West Virginia has impressed me a lot this season, they are a very put together team. Texas on the other hand has gotten stronger with every passing week. I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with WVU though, WVU will definitely continue bringing their A game and WVU will win this weekend.
West Virginia 34, Texas 20



Game 3: Central Florida (-14) at Temple (Noon EST)

JR Ewing:
Central Florida is rocking an undefeated record.  But the pressure mounts.  Tough road game in cold weather has this game closer than the spread.  UCF wins, but not by that much.
Central Florida 31, Temple 24

Bulldog Babe:
UCF is one of those surprising teams this season. They’re ranked in the top 15 after tonight’s (11/14/17) CFB playoff rankings and they definitely deserve it. Temple on the other hand won’t be able to handle the tough UCF team, so UCF will win.
Central Florida 34, Temple 17



Game 4: Navy (+18) at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)

JR Ewing:
One of the greatest David vs. Goliath rivalries in college football.  Disciplined Navy vs. Behemoth Notre Dame.  Notre Dame is coming off a very disappointing loss while Navy is scrappy.  I see this as reasonably close, but the Irish win.
Notre Dame 31, Navy 20

Bulldog Babe:
Notre Dame is the second team that got exposed last weekend, with a blowout loss against the Miami Hurricanes. Despite that, I think they will come back and win this weekend against Navy. They’re too good of a team to be kicked down like that. Notre Dame wins.
Notre Dame 40, Navy 25



Game 5: Kentucky (+21) at Georgia (3:30 p.m. EST)

JR Ewing:
This is dangerous for Georgia.  Licking their wounds from a thumping at Auburn, they return home to face a hungry Kentucky squad.  Kentucky is probably better than experts think.  Will Georgia bounce back?  Yes.  But they're looking forward to rivalry week as well as the SEC title game so this one again is closer than experts think.
Georgia 38, Kentucky 24

Bulldog Babe:
Georgia definitely had one of the toughest losses of last weekend against Auburn. While it severely dented their CFB playoff hopes, it’s not all over for the Bulldogs. If they win their next three games (Kentucky, Georgia Tech, SEC Championship), they will be back in the top 4. I think the Dawgs will bounce back in dominating fashion and it will be a smooth sailing win this weekend for UGA.
Georgia 35, Kentucky 7



Amazing the season is winding down.  But the excitement is reaching peak with rivalries and playoff talk.  Enjoy the penultimate regular season college football weekend!

- JR and BDB

No comments:

Post a Comment