Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/13/2022

In a really fun and amazing weekend of NFL Football, two traditional powerhouses squared off in the late TV window and thrilled audiences.  With the proud Green Bay Packers licking their wounds after 5 straight losses and the sky-high Dallas Cowboys in the frozen tundra, the Packers acted like a cornered wounded animal.  While Aaron Rodgers was his usual steady self, it was rookie wide receiver Christian Watson that emerged as a potential future superstar in the league.  Watson, who had been plagued with uneven play over the first half of his rookie season, emerged and showed why the Packers believed he can help bring the Packers back to the playoffs.  After a disappointing 88 yards on 10 catches in his first six games, he emerged with four big catches, including three touchdowns in the crucial 31-28 win to keep Green Bay in the playoff hunt.  His 58 yard catch in the 2nd quarter seemed to boost both the Packers and his confidence and they emerged as winners of their biggest game of the year.  Will Green Bay make the playoffs?  If so, it'll be due to Watson's emergence.  He is a worthy Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/16/2017

The NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the week was no question the Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys and our Sportsman of the Week made what might be the play of the year.  Jared Cook hauled in a 35 yard pass from Aaron Rodgers with just 3 seconds left to set up the Packers game winning field goal to ruin the Cowboys playoff party at home.  For the game, he ended up with 6 catches for 103 yards and a TD as Rodgers favorite target.  All were season highs (except yards within 2 yards of his 105 yards during the last Packers loss in Washington).  But it was the catch in the clutch that thrust the Packers into the NFC Championship Game that earns Cook our Sportsman of the Week!

2016-17 NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoff Preview

Yee Haw, I love Football!

As is the tradition for NFL playoff time, Dallas native and Cowboys fan J.R. Ewing will offer you a full range analysis of the NFL playoffs week by week.  This year, we have a special twist to discuss in a minute.  But here each playoff game will have a short analysis with thoughts on key factors then a final score predict.  The final score predict then gives you a Straight Up, Over/Under, and Against the Spread (ATS) pick to chew on for recreation purposes only.  We'll be tracking our own progress.  Or if you're someone with disposable income, gamble away (but this blog is not responsible for losses).

Welcome NFL Expert consultant, Bulldog Babe

For this year's twist, we're bringing in a NFL expert consultant to offer supporting or contradictory analysis.  Welcome "Bulldog Babe" (@bulldogbabexo) whose candid football analysis is spot on, funny, and usually turns out correct if you are smart enough to follow her on Twitter.  Bias alert, she really likes Aaron Murray and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And if you follow NASCAR, you have to track her lap by lap analysis (just don't cheer for Jimmie Johnson).

Lines and spreads are from CappedIn.com, a great website to track picks and play along for fun.  Amazing how up to date data they have (with very informed members).

January 7, 2017: 16:35 EST
Oakland Raiders (+3.5, +175) at Houston Texans (-3.5, -205) O/U 36.5

Oakland Raiders (12-4)
Last ten games: 8-2
Road: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 1-3 (0-1 on road)
Key Injuries: Derek Carr (out)

Houston Texans (9-7)
Last eight games: 4-4
Home: 7-1
Against Playoff teams: 2-3 (2-0 at home)
Key Injuries: Lamar Miller (probable)

J.R. Ewing prediction
Most pundits slam the Texans for playing in a bad division and having no offense.  Both true.  But they have the number one defense (by yardage allowed) and are very tough at home.  The Raiders will be starting rookie quarterback Connor Cook and this is a tough assignment for him.  These teams played in Mexico City and the Raiders prevailed on a fourth quarter comeback.  The methodical Texans get it done at home with a tough defense and enough scoring (maybe via turnovers) to move to the next round.

Final Prediction: Texans 20 Raiders 12.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Texans have had an up and down year, especially at the quarterback position towards the end of the regular season. Raiders are without Derek Carr going into the first playoff round and their final regular season game was not their best of the season, but they will have to lean on rookie Connor Cook during the playoffs. I have the Raiders taking this game in a close one

Final Prediction: Raiders 20 Texans 13.

January 7, 2017: 20:15 EST
Detroit Lions (+8, +300) at Seattle Seahawks (-8, -360) O/U 43

Detroit Lions (9-7)
Last three games: 0-3
Road: 3-5
Against Playoff teams: 0-5 (0-4 on road)
Key Injuries: Matt Stafford (probable)

Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)
Last six games: 3-3
Home: 7-1
Against Playoff teams: 3-1 (2-0 at home)
Key Injuries: Earl Thomas (out), Tyler Lockett (out)

J.R. Ewing prediction
The Seahawks edge seems to have been less since Earl Thomas went out.  Always tough at home in front of the 12th Man, self-proclaimed loudest crowd in the NFL.  They have sputtered on offense with no real running game this year.  But the Lions are reeling badly.  Note no wins against playoff teams for Detroit, they seem to have little chance to keep up with the Seahawks.  Lower scoring victory for Seattle, but closer than people think.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 21 Lions 17.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
This is a great matchup with two great teams that have had a great season. Despite his injured finger, Lions QB Matt Stafford is having one of, if not, his best season since being drafted by Detroit in 2009. He became the fastest player in league history to throw for 30,000 pass yards in just his 109th career game, breaking Dan Marino’s record of 114 games. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is a mobile quarterback who has that ability to extend plays. Just because of that, he will be a force to be reckoned with when he faces the Lions defense. It will be a close matchup I feel like as well.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 24 Lions 21.

January 8, 2017: 13:05 EST
Miami Dolphins (+10, +380) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, -455) O/U 46

Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Last eleven games: 9-2
Road: 4-4
Against Playoff teams: 1-3 (0-2 on road)
Key Injuries: Ryan Tannehill (doubtful)

Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-5)
Last seven games: 7-0
Home: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 2-3 (2-2 at home)
Key Injuries: None

J.R. Ewing prediction
No team in the AFC seems hotter than the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose last loss was an epic thriller to the Dallas Cowboys.  The Dolphins have also been winning with one of the best records in the NFL the second half.  However, missing Tannehill is a killer.  And while they defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, these Steelers are vastly improved.  Much better offensive weapons, plus terrible towels and the Steelers roll easily against the punchless Dolphins, who rely on the running game and Jay Ajayi to protect leads or keep them in close games.  This won't be close.

Final Prediction: Steelers 31 Dolphins 10.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Dolphins have a great running back in Jay Ajayi, but the Steelers have a great offensive line with guys such as wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell included in the mix. These teams faced each other in week 6 and it was not a good run for Pittsburgh, but it will be a different go around this time. Pittsburgh will be playing angry remembering the previous matchup in week 6.

Final Prediction: Steelers 24 Dolphins 14.
 
January 8, 2017: 16:40 EST
New York Giants (+4.5, +185) at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, -215) O/U 44.5

New York Giants (11-5)
Last eleven games: 9-2
Road: 3-5
Against Playoff teams: 3-2 (1-2 on road)
Key Injuries: None

Green Bay Packers  (10-6)
Last six games: 6-0
Home: 6-2
Against Playoff teams: 5-2 (4-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

J.R. Ewing prediction
The Packers are the talk of the NFC after living up to MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers prediction of "winning out" after Week 11.  They are always impressive at home and did damage against playoff teams this year.  The Giants haven't been too shabby either, and Eli Manning just knows how to win in the playoffs (8-1 in his last nine playoff games).  The Giants fight tough, but the Packers too tough at home.  The temps will be well below freezing, keeping it lower scoring than otherwise.

Final Prediction: Packers 24 Giants 17.

Bulldog Babe prediction:
Eli Manning is one of five quarterbacks to win a road game in Green Bay, he has done so twice. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are headed into Sunday on a six game win streak and Rodgers threw for 300 yards last week in the matchup against the Detroit Lions. He is also has had an MVP, and he has had a stellar season despite the team’s regular season record. Sunday is the first time that they will face off in the NFC Wild Card game, so it will be another great game.

Final Prediction: Packers 27 Giants 20.

The NFL playoffs are for the fans, no more pretenders, just contenders.  I want to thank Bulldog Babe for her analysis and contributions and hope she can join us the rest of the postseason (her contract at this point is week to week).  Enjoy the games, and we'll provide a postmortem along with Division Playoff analysis next week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/17/2016

The NFL playoffs took center stage last weekend, and a veteran wide receiver stole the show.  Arizona Cardinals star Larry Fitzgerald resembled his younger self in dominating a thrilling game with two big catches in overtime to thrust his team to the next round.  In total, Fitzgerald ended with 8 catches for 176 yards and the decisive 5-yard TD in overtime to defeat the Green Bay Packers.  But it was his 75 yard catch and run as the first play in overtime that tilted the contest.  The catch was only made necessary after an improbable hail mary pass by Aaron Rodgers tied the game with no time left.  In what was the best game of the weekend, our Sportsman of the Week was the deciding factor.

Sportsman of the Week - 200 weeks

The mainstay of my blog the last four years has been the Sportsman (or Sportswoman) of the week.  With just a few exceptions, I've managed to publish a short piece highlighting a strong sports performance over the previous week (always Monday through Sunday).  My criteria was simple.  Think broadly (not just the core four sports), favor the unsung over the famous, avoid repeats to the maximum practicable extent, winning your game is of the utmost importance, choose only one sportsman (only violated once), always include an action photo (which becomes my Twitter avatar for the week), and make it fun.

So here's a brief synopsis on how it's played out:

I only missed five weeks over nearly four years.  2/19/2012, 9/1/2013, 2/2/14, 3/16/14, 3/22/15.  Sometimes it was so late or I was on vacation or there wasn't a strong candidate, I just let it go.

Only once did I double up.  Just couldn't decide and decided I'd make the rule.  It was 1/5/14

That makes 196 awards Sportsmen and Sportswomen of the Week starting January 1, 2012 with Keith Price, QB from Washington.

Baseball has had the most, but remember how long the seasons are and the summer is void of hoops and football.  Even archery and dog racing got in the act:

By Sport:
MLB: 49 (note the long regular season w/o competition from football)
NFL:38
College Football: 20
NBA: 17
Golf: 14
NHL/Hockey:12 (Olympic hockey included)
Tennis: 11
Soccer: 7
Auto Racing: 6
NCAA Basketball: 6
Cycling: 5
Horse Racing: 4
Archery: 1
Swimming: 1
Track and Field: 1
Boxing: 1
Skiing: 1
Cricket: 1
Dog Racing: 1

And was there a regional bias? Judge for yourself (remembering that New York, LA, and Chicago have a lot more professional teams). 

By Pro City:
New York: 12
San Francisco:  9
Los Angeles: 7
Denver: 7
Boston:5
Washington, DC: 5
Dallas/FW:4
Houston: 4
Oklahoma City:4
Pittsburgh: 4
Baltimore:4
Miami:4
New Orleans: 3
St. Louis:3
Cincinnati:3
Chicago:3
Philadelphia: 3
Milwaukee/Green Bay: 3
Kansas City: 3
Tampa: 2
Atlanta: 2
Indianapolis:2
Detroit:2
Seattle: 2
San Antonio: 2
Toronto:2
Cleveland: 2
Oakland: 2
Fulham (ENG): 1
New Jersey: 1
Barcelona: 1
Phoenix: 1
Minneapolis: 1
Montreal: 1
Portland: 1
Ottawa: 1

Not all awardees are on teams, for tennis, golf, Olympics, etc., there are countries represented by individual or Olympic team sport athletes.

By individual's country:
USA: 23
Italy: 3
England: 2
Mexico: 2
Kenya: 2
Germany: 2
Switzerland:2
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 2
Colombia: 2
Scotland: 1
Belarus: 1
Russia: 1
Jamaica: 1
Serbia: 1
Dominican Republic: 1
Brazil: 1
Spain:1
France: 1
Canada: 1
Northern Ireland: 1
Sri Lanka: 1

And lest we forget colleges, including some of my favorite team's rivals who sneaked in there more often than they should

By College:
Texas A+M: 2
Oklahoma: 2
Alabama: 2
Wisconsin: 2
Ohio State 2
U of Washington: 1
Florida State: 1
Baylor: 1
Michigan State: 1
Army: 1
South Carolina: 1
Miami: 1
Florida Gulf Coast: 1
Fresno State: 1
Navy: 1
Auburn: 1
Pittsburgh: 1
Clemson: 1
Iowa State: 1
UConn: 1
East Carolina: 1

And which conferences? Pretty even spread:
SEC 6
Big 12 4
Big 10 4
ACC 4
Service Academies: 2
Other 2
Big East/AAC: 2
Pac 12 1

And as I stated, I avoid repeat winners when possible.  But sometimes the performance dictates.

Here are the complete list of repeat winners:

Three time winners:
Peyton Manning (2013, 2014, 2014)
Aaron Rodgers (2013, 2013, 2014)
Drew Brees (2012, 2015, 2015)

Two time winners:
Le'veon Bell (2012, 2014)
LeBron James (2013, 2013)
Russell Westbrook (2013, 2015)
Bubba Watson (2012, 2014)
Kevin Durant (2012, 2014)
Carey Price (2014, 2014)
Ezekiel Elliott (2015, 2015)
Nelson Cruz (2014, 2015)
Chris Froome (2013, 2015)
Serena Williams (2012, 2015)
Tom Brady  (2015, 2015)

And there are just some oddities that result from such an exercise.  Here are a list of odd facts throughout the years.

• The first ever winner was from the Pac 10, never one since.
• Only cities with more than 5: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver
• Noteworthy colleges with none: Texas, Stanford, Michigan, and Florida (note that Florida Gulf Coast got one)
• Wisconsin the only college to have a winner two sports (football and basketball)
• Le'veon Bell the only athlete to win in college and pros
• Cities without: San Diego, Buffalo, Charlotte, Nashville.
• Oklahoma City Thunder the only team with two multiple winners
• Thirteen Sportsman of the Week have been for no-hitters
• There's been twelve Sportswomen of the week (eleven individuals plus Serena twice)
• 28% of the time, the winner is not from baseball, football, basketball, or hockey
• Besides the Unites States (23), no other country has won more than 2 besides Italy.  The United Kingdom has up to six, Bradley Wiggins and Justin Rose (England), Rory McIlroy (Northern Ireland), Chris Froome twice (Kenyan, but British by ancestry), and Andy Murray (Scotland).
• Froome (British), Nelson Cruz (Dominican Republic) and Carey Price (Canada) are the only two non-Americans to repeat.
• Nelson Cruz the only baseball player to repeat.
• Golf (14) is the top sport outside of the Big four (actually ahead of hockey).

Most of all, I want to thank you, the faithful readers of the Blog.  It's fun to come up with a Sportsman.  I can't promise to have one 98% of the time the next 4 years, but I'll try!

- Longhorndave

2014-15 NFL Conference Championship Playoff Preview

Things were looking okay last week.  Then Peyton happened.  After a 2.5% profit in week one, the market crashed as fast as Peyton Manning's future prospects.  Total losses -29%.  Key losses were Cowboys and Broncos S/U, and missing three out of four ATS.  So don't listen to me.  Unless the law of averages is back in my favor...proceed at your own risk!

Each week of the NFL Playoffs, I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site). 

January 18, 2014: 15:05 EST

Green Bay Packers (+7.5, +295) at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, -325) O/U 46.5

Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Last nine games: 8-1
Road: 4-4 (avg score GB 21 vs. Opp 23)
Against Playoff teams: 4-2 (0-2 on road)
Key Injuries: Aaron Rodgers (calf, probable). 

Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Last seven games: 7-0
Home: 8-1 (avg score Sea 27 vs. Opp 15)
Against Playoff teams: 6-1 (4-1 at home)
Key Injuries: None

The Packers are going to be out of gas this week.  The Seahawks beat them by 20 in the season opener, and they're playing as good or better now than then.  The Packers are but a lucky bounce away from probably losing to the Cowboys.  The Seahawks put up an impressive amount of points against a good Panthers defense.  The Packers are downright lousy on the road.  This is a route in the making.  The only thing I don't like is the noon kickoff in Seattle, hopefully the crowd gets up early.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 28 Packers 14.

January 18, 2014: 18:40 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, +235) at New England Patriots (-6.5, -255) O/U 54

Indianapolis Colts (13-5)
Last eight games: 7-1
Road: 6-3 (avg score Ind 28 vs. Opp 26)
Against Playoff teams: 4-4 (2-3 on road)
Key Injuries: Josh McNary (suspended).

New England Patriots (13-4)
Last five games: 4-1
Home: 8-1 (avg score NE 33 vs. Opp 19)
Against Playoff teams: 5-1 (4-0 at home)
Key Injuries: None

The Colts were really impressive in Denver last week.  They baffled Peyton Manning with their game plan.  Their offense was efficient in a hostile environment.  Andrew Luck seems to be growing up before our eyes.  Tom Brady and his Patriots won a seesaw battle against a good, but not great Ravens team at home.  Including some shenanigans on lining up.  The Colts are a team on a mission, I see an upset here.

Final Prediction: Colts 31 Patriots 28.

If I had to pick the three "best bets" (3-3 so far) it would be:
Seahawks: ATS
Seahawks: S/U
Colts: ATS

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/9/2014

There were several huge performers on NFL Sunday, but this week's Sportsman shined above the rest.  QB Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers humiliated their arch-rival Chicago Bears defense, literally making it look like he was throwing against air.  Even with receivers wide open, Rodgers put the ball where it had to be for a total of six TDs before halftime, tying an NFL record that hadn't been done in 45 years.   Afforded most of the second half on the bench, his final stat line was 18-27 for 315 yards and six TDs.  Worth of our Sportsman of the Week!  This is Rodgers second nod, joining Peyton Manning (3), LeBron James (2), and Kevin Durant (2) as the only multiple time winners (through 150 weeks).

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/15/2013

Another week, another NFL QB puts up video game stats in a game in which they needed to win.  Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers went all Madden on the Washington Redskins, a team that is reeling but still looked like scout league talent against Rodgers.  He put up 480 yards (a career high) and 4 TD, while only misfiring on 8 passes in 42 attempts (81% completion percentage).  Rumors of the Packers demise were greatly exaggerated after the Week 1 dud against the San Francisco 49ers, Rodgers and the Pack will contend all year.

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/13/2013

With an exciting weekend of NFL Division playoffs, this player stood head and shoulders above the rest.  Experts questioned whether Colin Kaepernick could lead his team to victory against the proven, and former Super Bowl and NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and he came out shining.  After an early bad break pick 6, he threw for 263 yards and two TD's, but more impressively, ran for 181 yards and another two TD.  Any RB with 181 and two TD's would be lauded as the dominant factor in winning the game, Kaepernick did it out of the pocket just using his ability, and broke Michael Vick's playoff record for QB rushing yards in a game.  He is a breakthrough player for sure, and the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!