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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Friday, September 26, 2014

College Football 2014 - Week Five Picks

Cleaned up on the Rutgers d. Navy last week, giving me a ATS and the S/U upset special.  As a result, I lost $130 on the ATS, but gained $220 on the S/U.  Finally limiting losses and learning lessons.

Stats (ATS, S/U upset pick)

Coming into week: -$480 (5-9-1, 1-2)
Week Three: +$95 (2-3, 1-0)
Season total: -$385 (7-12-1, 2-2)

Picking for Michigan or against Arkansas has been killing me.  So lesson learned, we move on. 

Baylor (-22) at Iowa State
Iowa State matches up well with like teams that like to run and play defense (Kansas State, Iowa).  Baylor and their high pace, high scoring style is not like Iowa State.  And once Baylor gets rolling, they are hard to stop.  If Baylor overlooks the Cyclones, this could be close, but I don't see it that way.  Baylor puts up 40 or more easy and covers.

South Carolina (-5) vs. Missouri
Missouri seemed to be a little exposed last week against Indiana.  Traveling to South Carolina will be tough, with the Gamecocks coming off an impressive victory over Georgia.  There could be a USC letdown, the Cocks know this is a big game to decide the SEC East.  They'll win by a TD  Which is a cover.

Notre Dame (-9.5) at Syracuse (East Rutherford)
Notre Dame looks the part of a very balanced, and talented team.  The team looks comfortable against an up-and-down Syracuse (mostly down).  Look for the Irish to play well for their New York City area fans and win by 10 or more.

Texas (-12) at Kansas
It's been easy to pile on Texas this year, after the disappointing showing against BYU.  That was really one bad quarter.  Impressive in the other 11 quarters so far, including a game within grasp against Top 10 UCLA.  Texas pedestrian style should overmatch the Jayhawks.  By two TD.

Duke (+7) at Miami (FL)
Bettors still don't like Duke mainly for the "D" on their helmet.  Against admittedly weak opponents, they've put up 40 or more in 3 of 4 games (31 in the other).  While allowing 17 or fewer.  Miami is not that strong, this looks more like a pick'em to me.  Duke is the defending ACC Coastal Champs, they win this S/U.

Straight up Special
Duke (+220) at Miami
See above!

Can't believe we're already five weeks in, this week I clean up!

-JR Ewing

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