Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/7/2024

A thrilling opening semifinal of the College Football Playoffs commenced with both games going down to the last play and both undefeated teams moving onto their first Playoff Finals.  Despite being undefeated, the Washington Huskies were slight underdogs to the brand name Texas Longhorns but for most of the 60 minutes, had control of the game thanks to their Heisman runner-up quarterback Michael Penix Jr.  Penix Jr. was familiar with the Longhorns from the 2022 Alamo Bowl but took his game to a new level in near perfection in defeat of the Longhorns in the 2024 Sugar Bowl.  Penix Jr. was 29/38, with 2 TDs and 430 yards as the Longhorns had no answer for him.  He took no sacks and also scrambled for another 30 yards.  Penix Jr. takes his act to the Championship game where he'll face Michigan, his toughest defensive test of the year, but for now, is the worthy Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

*Editors note* the Sportsman of the Week goes through Sunday, therefore any result of the College Football Playoff finals will not be rendered until January 14. 

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/5/2023

An epic week and weekend in sports was highlighted by great NFL matchups, the World Series, the Breeders Cup, and college football.  It's the latter we focus on and in particular, Bedlam.  The Bedlam football series between Oklahoma Sooners and Oklahoma State Cowboys has taken place for 1xx years, even longer than Oklahoma was a state.  And in what may be the final matchup for a while after Sooners chose to leave for the Southeastern Conference, it was the little brother Cowboys who came out on top in front of a frenzied crowd.  And the engine that made it happen was all world running back Ollie Gordon II.  Gordon II has been epic this season and against the best opponent of the year, put up great numbers.  He ran for 137 yards and 2 TD, while catching another pass for over 150 yards total.  He's been doing this all year now with 1224 yards without even racking up many in non-conference play as he earned the starting nod.  His yardage leads the country.  He's averaging 7.0 yards per carry, best of anyone with 125 carries or more.  He's doing it all and now Oklahoma State is tied for the conference lead.  Ahead of big brother Oklahoma.  It doesn't get any better than that, thanks to Ollie Gordon II, the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/15/2023

The University of Georgia may be the new Alabama.  But they may be even better than that.  On Monday the Bulldogs cinched their second College Football Playoff Championship in 365 days easily destroying the Texas Christian Horned Frogs 65-7 in a game that wasn't even close.  Georgia used a balance offensive attack on both the ground and through the air to completely mystify the Frogs in the most lopsided championship game in history.  Perhaps no player was more unstoppable than tight end Brock Bowers who was consistently getting open and causing big damage.  Bowers finished the game with 7 catches 152 yards and a TD (also carrying the ball twice for 15 yards), reaching season highs in receptions and total years in the biggest game.  Georgia coaching was criticized for not using Bowers more in the Semifinal game and more than atoned.  Bowers is expected to perform very well at the next level and is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/25/2022

It's starting to get to the interesting part of the College Football season, with conference openers and no longer cupcake out of conference paydays.  One of the biggest upsets of the first week was orchestrated by a team that, quite frankly, got beat by a cupcake the week before.  The Kansas State Wildcats surprisingly fell to the Tulane (Mighty) Green Wave 17-10 last week in a stunner.  Many thought their conference title hopes would be abandoned.  Au Contrare.  Led by 5th year senior Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez, the Wildcats beat the 6th ranked and Big 12 favorite Oklahoma Sooners 41-34.  Martinez accounted for five touchdowns, including four on the ground, with an efficient 21-34 passing and one TD, but gashing the defense with 148 yards rushing on 21 carries.  It's not like the Sooners could gang up on him, with weapon super back Deuce Vaughn also getting as many touches and more than 100 yards.  The Sooners had no answers for Martinez, who cemented the Wildcats fourth win in five years over the Sooners.  A deserving Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 6/12/2022

What a weekend of college baseball action culminating in the College World Series field of eight worthy teams.  National seeds went by the wayside Super Regional after Super Regional as only two (Stanford and Texas A&M) made it through to Omaha.  One of the teams that spoiled the national seed party was the Texas Longhorns, who spoiled East Carolina's attempt at their first College World Series bid with a thrilling three game series win.  Led by the most prodigious home run hitter in the BBCOR (bat-ball coefficient restitution) era of college baseball history, Ivan Melendez.  The "Hispanic Titanic" hit his 31st and 32nd home runs of the season (in 65 games) passing legends like Kris Bryant and even pre BBCOR Mark McGwire.  The Longhorns started the season ranked Number 1 and got into brutal Big 12 conference play but emerged no worst for the wear and back in Omaha for the 38th appearance, the most all time.  Melendez is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportswoman of the Week Ending 1/23/2022

An all-time performance garners honors from someone you perhaps didn't know before this week.  Kansas State center Ayoka Lee scored 61 points in an impressive fashion in defeating the Oklahoma Sooners 94-65.  And this was no exhibition over a smaller, overmatched school.  The Sooners entered the game ranked number 14 but quickly found themselves down to the Wildcats 15-0 (with 12 of the 15 scored by Lee) and never recovered.  Lee added 12 rebounds, a steal, and three blocks to her impressive box score tally.  This was over 35 minutes of play, indeed almost scoring two points per minute is a feat that is difficult to match, especially since all her shots were inside the 3-point arc.  Lee demonstrated greatness and is our worthy Longhorndave Sportswoman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 10/4/2020

The Oklahoma Sooners were poised for the College Football Playoffs again in 2020, but this year has not been kind to them.  After a home loss to an overmatched (skill wise) but underestimated (coach and heart-wise) Kansas State Wildcats, the Sooners strolled into Ames, Iowa thinking time to right the ship.  The ship may be sunk.  The plucky Iowa State Cyclones love to get the big teams at home at night.  And using a power football mentality, bullied the bully Sooners and sent them back to Norman with a second straight Big 12 loss.  Their effort was no more personified than the yeoman like work of sophomore tailback Breece Hall.  Toting the ball 28 times for 139 yards and 2 TD.  Iowa State only threw it 25 times.  Tied at 30, he carried the ball twice for 36 yards, then 8 yards to give Iowa State the 37-30 lead they would not relinquish.  Hall may just lead Iowa State to a surprise Big 12 Title game appearance, but certainly remember the name.  Our Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/2/2018

College Football is back!  And with all the excitement and pageantry that fans love.  One of the big marquee matchups of the first week featured Big 12 power West Virginia facing off against SEC traditional power (but not so much lately) Tennessee.  It was West Virginia and their Heisman hopeful Will Grier that dominated for a 40-14 trouncing.  Grier lit up the Vols defense for 429 yards on a 25/34 performance and an astounding 5 TD with no INT.  He found 11 different Mountaineers open in the Vols secondary and made quick work of the rebounding Tennessee program.  Note that the SEC claims the Big 12 can't play good defense.  Well when you have a QB as good as Grier, it's tough to stop him.  Will Grier is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 3/25/2018

March Madness reaches its crescendo with the Final Four in San Antonio, TX.  None of the National Quarterfinal match ups was more of a back and forth brawl than elite programs Kansas and Duke squaring off on Sunday.  And it went to overtime.  And that's when our Sportsman of the Week took over.  Kansas' Malik Newman scored 13 points in overtime.  That was all of Kansas points, and enough to win the game by 4 (would have been 7 if not for a meaningless 3 by Duke).  Newman finished the game with 32 points, including 5-12 from beyond the arc and 11-12 from the free throw line.  In the Sweet 16 match up against pesky Clemson, he also led his team in scoring with 17 points including 4-7 from 3-pointers.  He had 7 rebounds in each game as well.  Newman also played 83 out of 85 minutes over the weekend.  He willed Kansas to the Final Four, can our Sportsman of the Week will them to a championship?

Sportsman of the Week Ending 3/18/2018

When the calendar says March, it's time for Madness.  Basketball madness.  In today's day and age, the favored teams seem to be loaded with one-and-done freshman and maybe a key sophomore.  But it's a senior who led his team this week to a Sweet 16 berth.  West Virginia's Jevon Carter provided that rare veteran leadership in positioning the Mountaineers for a Final Four run.  In two victories of over Murray State and rival Marshall, Carter posted 49 points, 11 steals, and 13 assists.  His total points are tops for teams still alive and the latter.  He only needed to play 29 minutes in the Marshall game because the team was coasting.  He was also 19-35 from the field, including 5-8 from beyond the arc.  Savage.  Carter is the kind of player that could turn greatness into legend the next two weeks, and he is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 12/31/2017

Another sports year in the books with the close of 2017, and as with most sports years, they end with exciting college football bowls.  The appetizer for the main course was this week, with several great games (especially if you are a fan of the Big 10).  The Big 12 also scored several key victories, including an upset over #20 Memphis Tigers at the hands of the Iowa State Cyclones in the Liberty Bowl.  The Cyclones enjoyed a resurgence this year due in large part to veteran leadership.  Perhaps none more important that WR Allen Lazard.  The senior went out with his best game of the year, notching 10 catches for 142 yards and a TD.  Perhaps more impressive was that his longest catch was only 22 yards, meaning he was consistently finding the second level and pulling in clutch catches, usually in traffic, to move the chains.  In a defensive struggle, each catch mattered and Iowa State notched their first bowl victory since 2009 by the score of 21-20.  Lazard should get a lot of NFL attention and he is our Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/12/2017

Same sport.  Same conference.  Same state.  New Sportsman of the Week.  The Big 12 has been a wide open offensive football league since the days of Mike Leach and Art Briles but there seems to be no bounds to the video game stats put up.  And before you say it doesn't work against good defense, reminder that the conference went 4-2 in bowl games last year (losses to Georgia and Miami who turned out to be on the upswing).  But back to the gridiron, Oklahoma State's senior quarterback Mason Rudolph is rolling through the meat of Big 12 play.  This was the Cowboys' third ranked team in three weeks, 2 of 3 on the road.  This week's stats were 25/31 for 376 yards and 3 TD in a key 49-42 victory over Iowa State.  That's only 6 incompletions.  Two of the TD came in the last 3 minutes as Oklahoma State scored the last 15 points of the game for the win.  Even in the loss to Oklahoma last week, he threw for nearly 450 yards and 5 TD but  came up short against last week's Sportsman of the Week.  Rudolph would be right in the Heisman talk if not for the slinger from Norman.  But he is our Sportsman of the Week!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 2016-17 Bowl Pick Special

It's time for the Big Boys to play, let's get it on!

The second in the two part J.R. Ewing Bowl picks, the first being straight up underdog picks.  This set is the five best bets ATS; noting that the first week or so of games featured Group of 5 conference that I had not seen much of this season, so it didn't make sense to pick.  Beginning December 26, the Power 5 conferences will take center stage.

Many of these will be favorites, given that I already selected several underdogs to win, therefore go ahead and take those ATS if you're feeling less confident.  Note both playoff games are included!

Just to continue to trumpet a successful college football regular season:

Summary:
Final Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 37-31-2 (+$290, 3.8% profit)

Note that the profit takes into account house take at $10 for every $100 wagered.

Here are the five best College Bowl Bets ATS:

December 27, 2016 (10:15 p.m. EST) - Motel 6 Cactus Bowl, Phoenix, AZ
Boise State (-7.5) vs. Baylor

Baylor was the most overrated 6-0 team in history.  They have lost six straight, only two were within a TD, and two losses were to non-bowl teams.  Meanwhile Boise State has just two losses overall, and always step up their game against Power 5 opponents.  Both teams are an odds defying 3-9 ATS, but it's Baylor who is mailing it in.  The coach and staff are out, some players are skipping the game, and they haven't won since October 15.  Boise takes this big.

December 28, 2016 (9:00 p.m. EST) - Advocare V100 Texas Bowl, Houston, TX
Texas A+M (-2.5) vs. Kansas State

The Aggies will be anxious to match up with their former Big 12 opponent.  The game is in Houston so expect a lot of maroon filling the 65,000 seat NRG Stadium.  Kansas State is a scrappy team in the regular season, but is only 1-7 in their last 8 bowl games, usually drawing a more talented team with time to prepare for their unorthodox, grinding style of offense.  As is the case this year.  A+M will want to finish the season on a positive note after nosediving from the College Football Playoff poll.  They win by 10 or more.

December 30, 2016 (Noon EST) - Autozone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Georgia (PK) vs. TCU

TCU has just two wins in their last six games finishing a disappointing 6-6 on the season in a very mediocre Big 12.  A young Georgia squad with a new coach and QB battled tough but loss some heartbreaking losses to rivals like Tennessee and Georgia Tech.  Given a chance to catch their breath, they can focus on building momentum for 2017 with a win here.  TCU is historically good in bowls, but this team isn't like the recent ones that have gone 4-1 / 8-2 in their last five/ten Bowl Games.  Georgia wins a see saw affair.

December 31, 2016 (3:00 p.m. EST) - Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl, Atlanta, GA
Washington (+14.5) vs. Alabama

Alabama is being tabbed as the odds on favorite to win their second straight playoff and why shouldn't they?  They are the only undefeated team remaining and talent laden.  Two factors have me thinking this is closer than experts think.  One is that the top of the SEC was much softer than some of the others Alabama navigated.  It enabled Alabama to have a lot of eye pleasing blowouts, but Washington is a sound team.  Washington is young, so they must step up to the big atmosphere.  I think this is either really close or a Crimson Tide blowout.  I'll lean toward close and a cover.

December 31, 2016 (7:00 p.m. EST) - Playstation Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Clemson (+3) vs. Ohio State

I think media and fans fell a bit too much in love with the Big 10 this year.  Because of the quantity of teams, the cream of the crop really only faced a worthy opponent 3 or 4 times during the conference season.  Ohio State went 2-1 in such games, with both wins in overtime.  Not exactly dominating.  Clemson was here last year and tasted the atmosphere.  With a veteran squad (vs. a young Buckeye squad), I see this is a near pick'em.  So I'm leaning to the Tigers to get it done and punch their ticket to Tampa.

Enjoy your holiday week and the Bowl Action and we'll see you in 2017!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: Championship Weekend

Christmas party on me and my profits!

Well well well, it looks like I'll be taking a profit into the Christmas holidays for the whole season.  After a couple weeks of bleeding away my early season profits, things came together last weekend.  It wasn't a romp, but enough to keep the win train going!

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 34-29-2 (+$210, 3.2% profit)

While normally I have a full slate of games to cherry pick, we can do nothing more than pick the Power Five Conference Championship Games (or the defacto version of the Big 12).  But before that, a short commercial break.  If you want to know how I feel about how the College Football Playoff committee should vote based upon results this weekend, check out this Blog.

But back to the picks, here we go!

Pac 12 Championship Game
Washington (-7.5) vs Colorado (Friday 12/2 9:00 p.m. EST - Santa Clara, CA)

Washington seems like a team that woke up when it had it's bell rung on the road against a surging Southern California team.  Throw out that game and they haven't been played in less than a TD.  They didn't seem to play scared last weekend in the Apple Cup, and their defense shuts down the Buffs to win something like 24-7 (take the under 58, too).


Oklahoma (-11.5) vs Oklahoma State (12:30 p.m. EST)

As this is a regular season game, it's in Norman.  The Sooners do well in Norman.  There have been times that Oklahoma State wrecked the Sooners hopes but this isn't one of those years.  Oklahoma muddled through injuries (and some suspensions) during the season but is peaking.  Oklahoma State has been more the category of doing just enough to win.  Explosive offenses abound, I take Oklahoma 42-31 (believe it or not, that's an under 77.5).

SEC Championship Game
Florida (+24) vs Alabama (4:00 p.m. EST - Atlanta, GA)

This just seems like too many points.  Alabama has been a machine at hitting games right near the line, so if I had my choice I would probably no play.  That being said, Florida's defense can be good, and Alabama has been winning more low scoring games lately.  So something like 28-7 would seem right.  That's also an under (40) play.

ACC Championship Game
Clemson (-10) vs Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST - Orlando, FL)

Another big spread, but another veteran team against an upstart team that isn't the same level.  Clemson was in this situation last year and it was tight.  It won't be tight.  Clemson uses their talent advantage and I'm guessing a crowd outnumbering the opposition to win 34-21.  Under 58.

Big 10 Championship Game
Penn State (+2.5) vs Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST - Indianapolis, IN)

Penn State continues to get disrespected and they continously prove doubters wrong.  They haven't lost since September 24 and haven't won by fewer than 2 TD since October 1 (besides a stunning upset of Ohio State).  They are rolling.  Wisconsin has had an amazing season playing a tough schedule, but Nittany wins this one by a FG at least. 

So with this result, I would have: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Big 10 in the playoff.  I would take Penn State, but the committee seems to value Ohio State.

2016 College Football Playoff Breakdown - The year of Chaos?

Nobody should have expected the expansion of a 2-team playoff (BCS) to a 4-team playoff (CFB Playoff) would eliminate close decisions and 2016 might be the toughest year the College Football Playoff Committee (CFPC) faces.  As we enter Championship Weekend (including the defacto Big 12 Championship Game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State), the scenarios have narrowed as to what the top teams need to do to get the blessing of the CFPC a week from tonight.  I'm going to walk through scenarios and tell you who I think should be included and not and why.  This is not what I think the committee is going to do, because I don't know and I think they may go for bigger school names instead of following their charter.  But time will tell.

Here are a few groundrules / assumptions / references
1) In two years, no team has made the playoffs without a conference title.
2) With only two years of history, we do not know how the committee will react based on history.
3) We will reference the Sagarin Ratings (team and conference) .
4) The CFPC has a charter here.


The CFPC charter specifically lists as factors  for comparable teams (not necessarily in order):

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Note that quantity of losses are not specifically cited, but one would think that would figure into "comparable".

Snapshot of each team

1) Alabama - They are in, win or lose in the SEC Championship Game.  If they lose, there will not be enough 1-loss conference champion teams to knock them out which would be the criteria the committee could point to.  And of course the proverbial eye test has favored them all year with big wins against Southern Cal, plus the brutal SEC West (top rated conference division according to Sagarin).  One spot confirmed.

2) Ohio State - And here is where things get complicated.  The Big 10 featured the two highest rated teams last weekend, however, neither is playing for the conference championship this weekend.  The dreaded loss of tiebreaker for Ohio State vs. Penn State head to head in their one loss keeps them from Indianapolis.  At number 2 in all polls, plus a win over a Top 5 team last weekend, some are calling them a lock.  The CFPC criteria states that if teams are "comparable" then championships becomes a discriminator.  I would think Washington and Clemson, also with one loss, would be comparable, giving the Buckeyes lack of hardware is a strike.  Strength of Schedule is another criteria.  While adding Oklahoma out of conference helps, the Big 10 East is ranked below the Pac 12 North/Washington (but ahead of the ACC Atlantic/Clemson) according to Sagarin.  Within a point in

the rating system, might not be enough.  Another team to potentially bump them will be the champion of their conference, the Big 10.  If it is Penn State, then head-to-head dooms them.  I don't see the committee giving Ohio State the nod over Penn State since Penn State won head-to-head and won the conference (two of the four major criteria).  So that puts Alabama plus three more that might have CFPC criteria pointing away from them.  They may need help.  Also look at Ohio State's top three opponents (Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin).  They did not win any in regulation, with 2 OT wins plus a loss.  They also were headed to overtime against very disappointing Michigan State but the Spartans went for two and didn't get it.  Again, when looking to thrust Ohio State into the "comparable" category for which their lack of a title hurts them, these close calls show weaknesses.

3) Clemson - At 11-1, including out of conference wins against two SEC teams, they look like if they win the ACC Championship vs. Virginia Tech they are in.  If they lose, the door is opened for Ohio State and/or the Big 12 Champion.  They'll get that 13th game (which the committee threw in the Big 12's face in 2014 as a discriminator) against another quality opponent (that Ohio State won't get).  If you're going to exclude a 12-1 conference champion, it will be Washington (next).

4) Washington - Also at 11-1, their resume is great in conference (played the second toughest Power 5 Division according to Sagarin) as well as USC/Utah from the South (USC was a loss, but still).  Their biggest problem is a very weak out of conference schedule (picked the wrong Big 10 team to schedule in Rutgers).  A win over Colorado (again, 13th game) gives them
a huge SOS boost, however.  So it would come down to the committee's judgment on whether Washington and Ohio State are comparable, and whether their championship outweighs Ohio State's strength of schedule.  I think it is comparable and the championship means more.  The committee should give the nod to Washington in the playoffs if Washington wins.

5) Penn State - What a spoiler they are playing.  Given up for dead (at 2-2 coming off a 39 point loss to Michigan), they have rolled since.  They would clearly need a Big 10 Championship to be considered and that, with a head-to-head win over Ohio State, to me would mean the committee could not pass them up for the Buckeyes.  The committee has dismissed bad early season losses before (Ohio State in 2014).  Lose and obviously no chance.

6) Wisconsin - If Wisconsin wins the Big 10, they're suddenly with coveted hardware that gets them in the discussion.  Throw in an out of conference schedule that included Louisiana State and they drew Michigan and Ohio State from

the East (as well as Top 10 at the time Michigan State).  If they win, the CFPC should give Ohio State the nod over them head to head (OT loss was in Wisconsin).  But it might be closer than you think, as head-to-head is just one of the four criteria, conference title being the other.

This to me concludes the teams that have a good shot if they win on Championship Weekend.  Others would need a lot of help, mostly Clemson and Washington losing (giving clear nods to Alabama, Big 10 winner, and Ohio State with one spot left).  More analysis.

Big 12 winner - Would have that championship as something to point to as opposed to other teams.  I would think they would be the first one in over Michigan (more in a minute).  Besides Michigan, Oklahoma is the highest rated team not discussed above and they're trending up (which, again, was a factor for Ohio State in 2014).  As for Oklahoma State, they had a rule misinterpretation by a MAC officiating crew cost them a game on the last play (that should not have happened).  So if things go crazy, they could get in with the hardware over ACC runner up Clemson, Pac 12 runner up Washington, and Michigan who don't have titles.

Michigan - The best argument they have is that they lost to the number 2 team in overtime at their place and went toe-to-toe.  All true.  However, two losses and no conference title make it hard for them to get in.  Again, unless comparing them to the field if Washington and Clemson lose.  Especially since they beat Colorado (Pac 12 Champ in that scenario).  Only chance is if Armageddon takes place and the committee is willing to put three Big 10 teams in the playoff, which seems far fetched.  I'm a firm believer that you need conference diversity to figure out a champion.  You cannot definitively call one conference not worthy of a playoff berth based on a short sample of out of conference games by their rivals.  Michigan is no better than the third Big 10 team in, they don't go in over a conference champ and obviously not over Ohio State.

Colorado - As a two loss champion, they'd have trouble getting in over Oklahoma and Michigan, so not seeing any path here. 

So to summarize the eight scenarios and who I think should get in (regardless of SEC and Big 12 outcomes):
Winners: Playoff contenders (in order, I doubt even Alabama would slip much with a loss)
PSU/Clem/Wash: Bama, Clem, Wash, PSU
Wisc/Clem/Wash: Bama, Clem, Wash, OSU
PSU/VT/Wash: Bama, Wash, PSU, OSU
Wisc/VT/Wash: Bama, Wash, OSU, Wisc
PSU/Clem/Colo: Bama, Clem, PSU, OSU
Wisc/Clem/Colo: Bama, Clem, OSU, Wisc
PSU/VT/Colo: Bama, PSU, OSU, Big12
Wisc/VT/Colo: Bama, OSU, Wisc, Big12

At the end of the day, the closest resume's are:
Pac 12 Conference Champion Washington vs. #2 and 11-1 Ohio State.  It's a matter of overall season vs. conference title.  And geography, will the committee want to exclude the Pac 12.  Would not play well to be so midwest/southeast centric.

Wisconsin/Penn State Big 10 conference champ vs. #2 and 11-1 Ohio State.  How much does a conference championship mean?  How much does head-to-head play?  Can they take two of these?

At the end of the day, I think this is what happens:
Wisc/Clem/Colo: Bama, Clem, OSU, Wisc

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/26/2016

I like rivalry week!  Big winners forecasted!

Early season winnings keep whittling away as another 2-3 week eats into profits.  Still ahead for the season and this with the house take.  Two weeks of picking left (before the Bowl pick special).  Here's how we stack up.

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-3 (-130)
Season: 31-27-2 (+$130, 2.2% profit)

There's some very curious lines this week that we'll take advantage of.  Gonna push up the profits just in time for the holidays!


Michigan (+6.5) at Ohio State (Noon EST)

Both of these teams are talented, both have had lapses where they lost, I see it as an even matchup.  At Ohio State I give them a field goal, not necessarily a touchdown.  Throw in a huge hunger by Michigan for losing this rivalry so much and I think they have an edge.  They might win straight up, but we'll take the points here.

Georgia (-4.5) vs Georgia Tech (Noon EST)

I guess Georgia Tech has won 4 of 5, but not against stellar competition (besides a surprise win over Virginia Tech).  Georgia is an improving team and historically handles the Jackets quite well.  The 4.5 points is almost as if it's seen as a push given the Dawgs are at home.  They win this by a TD, maybe two.


West Virginia (-7) at Iowa State (3:30 p.m. EST)

Just last week, West Virginia was playing a marquee game with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff.  An Iowa State was playing for their third win.  I get that this spread should be tight, but like 14 points tight, not a TD tight.  West Virginia has a plus QB and Iowa State still learning.  Seems like the Mountaineers take this by 10 at least.  Maybe 20.


Tennessee (-7.5) at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m. EST)

Tennessee is playing for a New Years Bowl instead of a minor one.  And this is a rivarly.  The season has been disappointing for the Volunteers, but the talent is still there and Vanderbilt is overmatched.  Again, the 7.5 points seems too tight, I think 2 TD at least.


Florida State (-8) vs Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)

Florida State has three losses, two are to Clemson and Louisville, the other was flukeish to North Carolina.  Florida has battled in the SEC, but still has little offense to match up with the weapons in Tallahassee.  The game at Florida State makes it a tough win for Florida, who is looking forward to the SEC title game.  Seminoles by double digits.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend and rivalry week!  And may the gambling gods be with you!

-JR

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/19/2016

In a small nosedive, but that stops this week

Well things are getting tighter here at the end of the year; the oddsmakers are catching up to me!  Could have easily one 3-2 last week if not for a fourth quarter collapse and a push.  But it is what it is:

Summary:
Previous Week: 1-3-1 (-230)
Season: 29-24-2 (+$260, 4.7% profit)

I'm mostly intrigued by a lot of close point spreads for big conference teams.  Always feel like that enables a good chance to win. 

Northwestern (-3) at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)

Northwestern is playing really well late in the year as one of the most improved teams in the Big 10.  5-1 ATS the past couple of months, took Ohio State to the wire.  Minnesota defense is a little soft, wo look for a higher scoring game with the Wildcats winning by a TD.


Iowa State (+4) vs Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

Iowa State is improving, and even in losses to good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State) has kept it within a TD.  Texas Tech is up and down, and the weather will be cold and the wind will be howling.  That could neutralize the passing game and give Iowa State a good chance to control the ball against the worst defense in the Big 12.  I like taking the points.

Notre Dame (-2) vs Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

An odd spread given the awful season Notre Dame is having vs. the surprising good season Virginia Tech is having.  Do the bettors know something or is this chasing bad money?  Virginia Tech has not covered the last 3 spreads, and this is a big stage for the young Hokies.  At this tight line, Notre Dame, at home, can win by 3 and cover.  I'm going Irish.

Washington State (+6) at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)

Washington State is hitting on all cylinders at this point in the season with eight straight wins.  And are getting nearly a TD against a good, but still unproven Colorado.  The Cougars are putting up tons of points and it seems like they can win this straight up.  I'll take the points.

Arkansas (+2) at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)


It seems like bettors are remembering the one good Mississippi State game and forgetting all the forgettable ones.  Arkansas is a better team.  They need this win for bowl positioning and won't let it get away.  The Hogs go down to Stark-Vegas and take care of the business trip.

Enjoy your chilly Saturday of College Football!

-JR

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/12/2016

I don't like the looks of this week

A so-so week for sure, but a couple of bad beats in the SEC with LSU and Kentucky fighting close but losing the spread at the end.  No matter, you take the bad with the good.

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-3 (-130)
Season: 28-21-1 (+$490, 8.9% profit)

No good feelings this week.  Not many big games under a touchdown which is the sweet spot I prefer.  Plus I'm still on a "No Texas" stance, they are too unpredictable.  As it is, going to look at four out of five favorites and hope a few go off.

Oklahoma (-17.5) vs Baylor (Noon EST)

Baylor is in shambles.  Shambles.  Their depth is getting tested now that they're in the tougher part of their schedule.  And they go on the road to a surging Oklahoma team.  This is the beginning of the end for the Briles Bears era.  And this one won't be close.

Navy (-2) vs Tulsa (Noon EST)

Two very hot teams, actually, and I like picking this one because it's under a field goal.  The game is in Annapolis where Navy is undefeated ATS.  I just see Navy methodically taking it to Tulsa and winning by at least a FG.

Indiana (+7) vs Penn State (Noon EST)

I know Penn State is hot, but on the road, this is a game the Hoosiers can surprise. In three trips away from Happy Valley, Nittany is only 1-2.  Plus teams that suddenly get in the Top 10 playoff rankings sometimes feel pressure.  I predict Indiana catches Penn State sleep walking and at least keeps it at about a field goal.

Oklahoma State (-12.5) vs Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

Oklahoma State is quietly one of the improving teams in the Big 12.  After stumbling against Central Michigan, they've suffered a loss at Baylor but are undefeated since September.  Texas Tech is very very suspect on defense.  Really can't stop much and their offense isn't consistent enough to score.  Throw in a banged up QB and I see the Cowboys winning by a couple of TDs easy.

Texas A+M (-10) vs Mississippi (7:30 p.m. EST)

In a game with backup quarterbacks, I'll take the team with the guy who has experience and the team that's Top 10 and not teetering on bowl ineligibility.  Both teams are reeling, Texas A+M reels this time every year, but I believe at home they'll be able to run away from Ole Miss and a completely unproven QB (whoever he is).

Unfortunately this week doesn't seem to be one where upsets of top teams will be prevalent.  But I do think the above will at least get you a little profit!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/5/2016

J.R. says "Don't mess with [betting on] Texas"

Sounding like a broken record, but another winning week last Saturday.  In this game, you take your 60% where you can get them.  I'm done betting on Texas Longhorns games, you would think if you just bet home vs. away you'd win every time but too unpredictable.

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 26-18-1 (+$620, 12.5% profit)

As the College Football Playoff poll is released, there is sudden focus on the eye test where teams on the outside looking in may look to push the score up a bit more than in previous weeks with the new urgency.  Teams in the playoff suddenly are targets to upsets.  All that being said, I like five underdogs this week, all are between 2.5 and 7.5 points, many at home.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Miami (12:30 p.m. EDT)

This is a game of teams going in opposite directions.  Once the competition stepped up, Miami has stepped aside.  Meanwhile Pittsburgh is playing some good football, with a narrow loss to impressive Virginia Tech and a win over Penn State.  Meanwhile, Miami has lost four straight both straight up and ATS.  I like the better football team here, and that's Pittsburgh.  Home field is almost irrelevant since kickoff is so early.

Oklahoma State (+3) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EDT)

Oklahoma State has won four straight Big 12 games, including a throttling of previously undefeated West Virginia.  Kansas State is well coached, but under talented.  I would nod the Cowboys by a point or three, so if you're giving me points, I'll take the Pokes, even in Manhattan.

Arkansas (+4) vs Florida (3:30 p.m. EDT)

This is an SEC East vs. West play.  The East seldom beats the West, and Arkansas is a solid team.  They're coming off a humiliating loss at Auburn and will have something to prove.  Florida just keeps on playing defense and winning, but, again, give me some points at home with an East team playing at West, I'll go West.

Kentucky (+2.5) vs Georgia (7:30 p.m. EDT)

What is it going to take to get bettors to believe in Kentucky?  Three straight conference wins, 5-1 in their last six games, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile Georgia is struggling, which is what happens when you have a freshman QB and new head coach.  Georgia hasn't won on a Saturday since September 17, a one point squeaker over awful Missouri.  If you look at the rosters, Georgia should win this.  But Kentucky is playing some good football.

LSU (+7.5) vs Alabama (8:00 p.m. EDT)

It's rare that Alabama runs the SEC gauntlet unscathred, there's always a tough road game where they play a bit below par and the other team steps up.  LSU is playing well under Coach Orgeron and would love to play spoiler to their rival.  Given the betting line just above a TD, I'll take my chances on a wild game in the Swamp and a Tigers cover.

It's November, the peak of College Football season!  Enjoy your Saturday!

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 10/29/2016

I may have a perfect hat, but I'm not perfect.

The win streak was finally broken after six non losing Saturdays, but only at a 2-3 record.  Manageable.  And I told you my feelings weren't strong.

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-3 (-130)
Season: 23-16-1 (+$540, 12.2% profit)

This week is tantalizing with a lot of highly ranked teams on the road.  I believe if you go across the board on underdogs you'll do well.  But which are the best chances?  And which favorites are undervalued?  All is revealed.

Michigan State (+24.5) vs Michigan (Noon EDT)

I don't like huge point spreads but this is just too many points.  Just too many.  For a Michigan State team playing for pride.  Note Michigan has only had to leave the Big House once this season to a soft Rutgers team (yes, they did cover).  But State can at least make a game of it, the Big 10 home field means something.

Georgia Tech (-6.5) vs Duke (Noon EDT)

This is my small game pick of the week.  Georgia Tech has controlled teams they are better than.  And Duke is one of them.  Outside of a Notre Dame win, Duke really hasn't competed well.  A TD seems like an easy target to control.

Notre Dame (+2) vs Miami (3:30 EDT)

Miami has lost three straight football games and doesn't have a banner win this year (Georgia Tech and Appalachian State don't count).  Notre Dame season has been nothing short of disaster of Oregon or Texas proportion.  But if they get a couple of points at home, I can't resist.  This might be circle the wagons time, but, again, just don't see enough out of Miami to justify the road favorite.

Baylor (-3) at Texas (3:30 EDT)

Texas is undefeated at home, but even their last home win against Iowa State they were losing at half time.  Barely beat a bad Notre Dame team in overtime.  Baylor is much better than both of those teams.  The Longhorns defense has been the Achilles heel all year and this week won't be kind.  Heck, Baylor can win in OT and still not lose the cover.  Also, for the love of what's good, take the Over 72.

Florida State (+4.5) vs Clemson (8:00 EDT)

This has become a premier ACC game every year and you know it was circled on both teams' schedules since the final whistle last year.  Something hasn't quite been right with Clemson and Florida State has been pretty good save one dud against Louisville (and an uninspired effort against North Carolina which they should have won).  This one is in their wheel house (and they win for a tight loss).

I think there are at least three winners, maybe four among this group!  Did I mention to take the over on Baylor/Texas?

- JR