Sportsman of the Week Ending 11/17/2024

The college football season is winnowing down to the last couple of weeks and several name brand teams are angling for a playoff berth.  A recent name brand that continues to make its name is the Boise State Broncos.  At 9-1 and now projected to potentially get a first round playoff berth, the Broncs have ripped teams up on the ground thanks to Heisman short list candidate Ashton Jeanty.  Jeanty is pushing 2000 yards so far through just 10 games and seems unstoppable.  This week, he tallied 159 yards and 30 carries and 3 TD in a 42-21 win over a bowl-bound San Jose State Spartans.  Boise State's only loss was a 3-point squeaker to number one, undefeated Oregon Ducks (in which Jeanty had 200 all-purpose yards and yes, another 3 TD).  Expect Jeanty to continue to roll and prove himself in the playoffs, but for this week he is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!  

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 2016-17 Bowl Pick Special

It's time for the Big Boys to play, let's get it on!

The second in the two part J.R. Ewing Bowl picks, the first being straight up underdog picks.  This set is the five best bets ATS; noting that the first week or so of games featured Group of 5 conference that I had not seen much of this season, so it didn't make sense to pick.  Beginning December 26, the Power 5 conferences will take center stage.

Many of these will be favorites, given that I already selected several underdogs to win, therefore go ahead and take those ATS if you're feeling less confident.  Note both playoff games are included!

Just to continue to trumpet a successful college football regular season:

Summary:
Final Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 37-31-2 (+$290, 3.8% profit)

Note that the profit takes into account house take at $10 for every $100 wagered.

Here are the five best College Bowl Bets ATS:

December 27, 2016 (10:15 p.m. EST) - Motel 6 Cactus Bowl, Phoenix, AZ
Boise State (-7.5) vs. Baylor

Baylor was the most overrated 6-0 team in history.  They have lost six straight, only two were within a TD, and two losses were to non-bowl teams.  Meanwhile Boise State has just two losses overall, and always step up their game against Power 5 opponents.  Both teams are an odds defying 3-9 ATS, but it's Baylor who is mailing it in.  The coach and staff are out, some players are skipping the game, and they haven't won since October 15.  Boise takes this big.

December 28, 2016 (9:00 p.m. EST) - Advocare V100 Texas Bowl, Houston, TX
Texas A+M (-2.5) vs. Kansas State

The Aggies will be anxious to match up with their former Big 12 opponent.  The game is in Houston so expect a lot of maroon filling the 65,000 seat NRG Stadium.  Kansas State is a scrappy team in the regular season, but is only 1-7 in their last 8 bowl games, usually drawing a more talented team with time to prepare for their unorthodox, grinding style of offense.  As is the case this year.  A+M will want to finish the season on a positive note after nosediving from the College Football Playoff poll.  They win by 10 or more.

December 30, 2016 (Noon EST) - Autozone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Georgia (PK) vs. TCU

TCU has just two wins in their last six games finishing a disappointing 6-6 on the season in a very mediocre Big 12.  A young Georgia squad with a new coach and QB battled tough but loss some heartbreaking losses to rivals like Tennessee and Georgia Tech.  Given a chance to catch their breath, they can focus on building momentum for 2017 with a win here.  TCU is historically good in bowls, but this team isn't like the recent ones that have gone 4-1 / 8-2 in their last five/ten Bowl Games.  Georgia wins a see saw affair.

December 31, 2016 (3:00 p.m. EST) - Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl, Atlanta, GA
Washington (+14.5) vs. Alabama

Alabama is being tabbed as the odds on favorite to win their second straight playoff and why shouldn't they?  They are the only undefeated team remaining and talent laden.  Two factors have me thinking this is closer than experts think.  One is that the top of the SEC was much softer than some of the others Alabama navigated.  It enabled Alabama to have a lot of eye pleasing blowouts, but Washington is a sound team.  Washington is young, so they must step up to the big atmosphere.  I think this is either really close or a Crimson Tide blowout.  I'll lean toward close and a cover.

December 31, 2016 (7:00 p.m. EST) - Playstation Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Clemson (+3) vs. Ohio State

I think media and fans fell a bit too much in love with the Big 10 this year.  Because of the quantity of teams, the cream of the crop really only faced a worthy opponent 3 or 4 times during the conference season.  Ohio State went 2-1 in such games, with both wins in overtime.  Not exactly dominating.  Clemson was here last year and tasted the atmosphere.  With a veteran squad (vs. a young Buckeye squad), I see this is a near pick'em.  So I'm leaning to the Tigers to get it done and punch their ticket to Tampa.

Enjoy your holiday week and the Bowl Action and we'll see you in 2017!

Top Undefeated College Football Teams Denied a Title since 1970

BCS bashers have united that the college football title game system never worked and was unfair to someone.  Thankfully for them (and most college football fans), 2013 marks the last time it will exist as college football moves to a 4-team playoff in 2014.  Some are thinking it's one year too late, with six teams undefeated as of this post (Alabama, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State, Northern Illinois, and Fresno State), none playing each other, and only two spots in the BCS Championship Game.  History says that undefeateds drop off at seasons end (rivalry games, conference title games, etc.) but this year (everyone always says) will be different.  However they were saying this with Oregon in the mix, and they lost a surprising game at Stanford (same Stanford team that lost to Utah).

But back to the matter at hand, fans get up in arms at the mere thought that an undefeated team is denied a chance to win a title.  And they act like it's never happened before and a crime against humanity.  These fans have short memories.  During the BCS (and well before the BCS) we've had undefeated teams not included in the title game and it's part of the fabric of college football.  With a limited sample of games and over 100 teams, some are bound to get through and get through in a manner that they do not demonstrate superiority to at least one other team (bigger conference, better bowl game, etc.).  Here's a list (since 1970) of teams that ran the table but didn't get a shot at the title (excluding teams on probation):

1970 - Arizona State (11-0) - As members of the WAC (and the weaker schedule to go with it), the Sun Devils only got to play in the Peach Bowl (destroying North Carolina), while outscoring opponents 401-148 over the season.  Three other powerhouses (Nebraska, Ohio State, and Texas) were awarded shares of the National Championship.  Of those, Nebraska was the only other undefeated, however they had tied USC.  ASU finished the AP #6
1970 - Toledo (12-0) -As members of the MAC, Toledo wasn't given serious consideration for a major bowl.  Instead they played the Tangerine against William and Mary.  The Rockets outscored their opponents 384 - 88 over the season finishing #12 in the final AP poll.
1973 - Penn State (12-0) - Okay, enough with the small conferences, Penn State played a major conference schedule (although was an independent) rolling over Stanford, Pittsburgh, Iowa, and LSU (Sugar Bowl).  This run could only get them to #5, with #1 Notre Dame finishing undefeated, but the other three teams with a loss or a tie.  Somehow Alabama with a loss claims a National Title as well, even with a loss to Notre Dame.
1975 - Arizona State (12-0) - Again, as WAC champions they didn't play a major conference schedule, but they did beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oklahoma, with one loss to Kansas at home, was awarded the National Championship as Arizona State finished #2 in the AP Poll
1982 - SMU (11-0-1) - Including a team with a tie here, because all other teams had a loss.  SMU (from the powerhouse Southwest Conference) defeated Pittsburgh in the Cotton Bowl, their only tie was to Top 10 Arkansas.  Instead, (independent) Penn State grabbed the National Title despite suffering a 3-TD loss to Alabama, which didn't even finished ranked in the AP.

Eric Dickerson and the Pony Express ran over everyone they played.

1994 - Penn State (12-0) - Now a member of the Big 10, you figure the power schedule would carry the Nittany Lions to a title.  However, locked into the Rose Bowl, they could "only" play Oregon while two other undefeateds, Nebraska and Miami, squared off in the Orange Bowl.  Penn State had to settle for #2 while Nebraska won the National Championship.

Kerry Collins could not pass his team into a National Title chance

1998 - Tulane (12-0) - The Conference USA champions ran the table, but lacked a marquee win and allowed 24 points a game, lacking that dominating swagger.  This got them a Top 10 finish, but undefeated Tennessee took home the National Championship hardware.
1999 - Marshall (13-0) - Only three years removed from National Title at Division I-AA, the Thundering Herd stormed through the MAC on their way to a Motor City Bowl victory.  Without a marquee win (Clemson and BYU the best, but both unranked) they finished #10 in the AP Poll, while undefeated Florida State won the title with a win over regular season undefeated Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.
2004 - Auburn (13-0) - You would think an SEC team would get a guaranteed berth to the BCS Championship game, but you would be wrong.  Not when two powerhouse teams (Oklahoma and Southern California) were also undefeated.  This being the first year that USC could pass the Rose Bowl and go to the BCS Championship Game.  USC rolled Oklahoma (a title later revoked due to the Reggie Bush scandal) leaving Auburn wondering what might have been, with the SEC winning 7 straight national titles beginning two years later (many of those teams with one loss).

Auburn rolled over everyone in the SEC, but didn't play for the BCS Hardware

2004 - Utah (12-0) - The Urban Meyer-led Mountain West Champions became the first "BCS Buster" in being invited to the Fiesta Bowl, but matched against a suspect Pittsburgh Big East Champion.  Defeating Texas A&M, BYU, and Arizona along the way wasn't enough to get the Utes into the title mix, with the aforementioned USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn also undefeated.  Utah finished #4 in the AP.
2006 - Boise State (13-0) - The Boise State empire begins as the WAC champions beat Oregon State, Utah, and Oklahoma on their way to a perfect season.  Meanwhile 1-loss Florida leapfrogged the Broncos to face undefeated Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game, leaving Boise to languish at a #5 finish, even after the upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Boise State defeats Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl

2008 - Utah (13-0) - For the second time in 4 years, Utah ran the table without much consideration for a National Championship.  Defeating Michigan, TCU, and Oregon State, then Alabama in the Sugar Bowl wasn't enough.  Even though both participants in the National Championship Game (Oklahoma and Florida) suffered a defeat during the season.  Utah finished #2 in the final AP poll without a chance to prove their worth against Florida.
2009 - Boise State (14-0) - For the second time in 4 years, the Broncos finished the year undefeated without a sniff of a title chance.  With Alabama and Texas as powerhouse undefeateds, the Broncos faced off with undefeated TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, edging the Horned Frogs, but only rising to #4 (#3 and #2 were one-loss teams to title winners Alabama).
2010 - TCU (13-0) - Still members of the MWC, the Frogs didn't get consideration for the BCS Championship game with Oregon and Auburn both finishing undefeated in deeper conferences.  TCU still beat Oregon State and Baylor.  TCU was invited to the Rose Bowl to play Big 10 Champion Wisconsin, and outmuscled the Badgers to a BCS game victory.  Enough to get them to #2 in the final AP poll behind the undefeated Auburn Tigers.

TCU stood up to Big 10 Champion Wisconsin

While many of these were from smaller conferences, several were from the big boys.  Unfortunately, today's college football climate is built around National Championships instead of Conference titles, and finishing #2 (or not playing the BCS Championship Game) is considered a failure.  The above situations are the fabric of college football to date, and a playoff will include more teams, but never enough, and in 30 years there will probably be another list like this one of those excluded from a title shot.

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/22/2013

Another week, another quarterback, but we check down to college this week.  And along with that, non-BCS automatic berth schools.  Fresno State's Derek Carr set Friday night on fire, with a 460 yard, 4-TD performance in leading his Fresno State Bulldogs to a narrow 1 point victory over rival Boise State Broncos.  He completed 39 passes, none to the other team, and led the Bulldogs to their first victory in their last eight tries against the Broncos.  This win now positions them for a run at the BCS with their toughest games behind them, particularly with the relaxed qualifying rules for non-auto conferences. Nevertheless, we'll see his name among NFL draft talents, but this week, he is the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 9/2/2012

We turn a new leaf over to college football this week, this performer put his Top 15 team on his broad shoulders and carried them to a victory in a Top 25 battle against Boise State.  Michigan State's Le'Veon Bell touched the ball 50 times for 265 total yards and 2 TD's (his team's only 2 TD's).  Trailing by 3 in the 4th quarter, he touched the ball 5 times for 19 hard earned yards including the 5 yard dart for the go ahead score.  Then, on the time killing drive after that, touched it 9 out of 11 Michigan State plays before all the team had to do but kneel.  A gutsy effort for the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Week 1 Upset Specials

J.R. Ewing here from Dallas fame, I'm sipping on some bourbon on the 38th floor of Ewing Enterprises tower in downtown Dallas and thinking about this opening week of college football.  The deal is, I'm going to lay out three picks a week, but there's a catch.  I'm taking a team straight up that is underdog by 7 points or more (ish).  These are matchups where I see, not only will the underdog cover, but send that favorite home with their panties wrapped around barbed wire.  In any event, let's get the fun started:

Pick #1:
Boise State (+7) d. Michigan State
Boise State hasn't lost a game by 7 or more points since 2007 (at least on the mainland they haven't).  New QB, yeah.  Michigan State is rising, yeah.  But weird things happen early in the season, and Week 1, a disciplined team with less talent can out execute the favorites.  Taking the Broncs.

Pick #2:
Northern Illinois (+10) d. Iowa
Iowa has been slipping for some time now.  Northern Illinois coming off their second straight 11 win season (not 10 win, 11 win).  This is one of those perfect storms again (game in DeKalb), early in the year, the scuffling programs haven't found their rhythm.

Pick #3:
Southern Methodist (+10) d. Baylor
We don't know what Baylor will look like without RGIII.  We do know SMU is stacked at QB and on the upswing under June Jones.  I'm buying that Baylor under Briles is going to be a perennial contender.  But this game looks tenuous.  Of course, I'm taking my hometown Dallas boys on this one in an old fashioned Texas shootout!

So there you go, we'll keep track of the weekly performance, can't expect to even go .500 in these games.  Or can I?

Last Week (N/A), Season (0-0)

****Post Mortem Review****
So I stumbled out of the block at 0-3 this week (and for season).  Was close on Pick #2, artificially close on Pick #1 (MSU could have scored most likely if they didn't take a knee), and totally whiffed on Pick #3.  That's okay, two shots of Dickel Tennessee Whisky and we'll be back at it next week, folks!

PS - We now know what Baylor looks like without RGIII, see, you learn something by following this blog!

2012 College Football Preview

With less than a week until the mid-week games kick off, this is most definitely one of my favorite times of year.  I'm a "would rather have my cake than eat it" guy.  The excitement of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams (plus 4 provisional), all have a chance to win the title.  Well, maybe not, but all have a chance to make an impact on the season, pull off upsets, win their conference (should they be in a conference), or have their player win the Heisman.  But I digress.  I thought I'd run through My Top 25.  Then as an engineer by trade, put some sort of metric on whether I think each team will exceed or falter vs. the AP/Coaches (see "higher/lower" below), then rate my picks at the end of the season.  Sounds like fun?  Here we go!

Bold teams win the conference, Italics make the conference title game. 

My Top 25
1) Alabama (higher)
2) Oregon (higher)
3) Texas (higher)
4) USC (lower)
5) Wisconsin (higher)
6) Oklahoma (lower)
7) LSU (lower)
8) West Virginia (higher)
9) Florida State (lower)
10) Michigan (lower)
11) South Carolina (lower)
12) Arkansas (lower)
13) Georgia (lower)
14) Boise State (higher)
15) Notre Dame (higher)
16) Michigan State (lower)
17) Clemson (lower)
18) Nebraska (lower)
19) Florida (higher)
20) Ohio State (lower)
21) Virginia Tech (lower)
22) TCU (lower)
23) Louisiana Tech (higher)
24) Georgia Tech (higher)
25) Kansas State (lower)


Non ranked Conference winners:
Big East: Cincinnati
Conference USA: Southern Methodist
MAC: Northern Illinois
Sun Belt: Arkansas State

Top 5 Questions answered:
1) What the hell are you thinking with Texas #3
A: I am biased, but I think the team has the running game and defense that can keep them in all the games they play.  The Big 12 gauntlet will be tough, won't get out unscathed, but I think this is a year where 1 loss or 2 will still make the title game.  If the QB situation implodes and injuries at RB take a toll, then this team drops to .500 quick.

2) Louisiana Tech at #23.  Really?
Other than an odd loss at Hawaii last year, all losses were close (to teams like Houston by 1 point, Southerm Miss by 2 points, TCU by 7 points).  Lost only 1 game after October 1st, this team gets Sonny Dykes system.  Early schedule is the most intriguing, with Texas A&M at home, then on the road with Houston, trips to Illinois and Virginia loom (good team can win those games).  Then it's easy sailing (no trips to Oahu).

3) Why Alabama #1?
They lost a lot on defense, but are so, so deep.  LSU isn't as much a threat as people think, only 3 ranked teams on the schedule (2 in the first 3 weeks, then LSU).  Every week you're going to watch this team play and expect them to win by 10 points.

4) Okay, Notre Dame at #15.  You're smoking something!
Kelly has this team playing the right way.  They've got some depth for the first time in a while.  Brutal schedule (give them credit), but all their opponents I think are slightly over slot.  They should have beat Michigan last year at the Big House (now everyone thinks Michigan is Top 10).  If this team gels by the 2nd half of the season, watch out!

5) Boise State ain't that good.
A trip to Michigan State early, then there's nothing stopping them. Neutral site, I think they'd give the teams behind them fits, and the teams in front of them good games.  I'm gambling they'll beat an overrated Michigan State team, then end up 12-0 like they usually do, crashing the BCS.

Other random picks:
Heisman: Matt Barkley
Coach of the Year: Sonny Dykes
Teams that are WAY overrated: Stanford, Oklahoma State (notice a theme here with QB's leaving), Georgia, Michigan State

Team outside the Top 10 that could run the table: West Virginia - we don't know how good this team is in a tougher conference, they might explode against an average Big 12.

Team in the Top 10 most likely to end up out: Georgia - has the benefit of a good schedule, but if the team gives up after early losses, there's a lot of games they may not win.

Things to bet your house on: Wisconsin representing the Leaders division in the Big 10 title game - two teams aren't eligible, the others are Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue.

BCS Games (winner in bold) plus Cotton and Peach (the next best two)
Championship: Alabama (12-1) vs. Oregon (12-1)
Rose: Wisconsin (11-2) vs. USC (11-2)
Fiesta: Texas (10-2) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Sugar: LSU (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
Orange: Florida State (10-3) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)
Cotton: West Virginia (9-3) vs. Arkansas (9-3)
Peach*: South Carolina (10-3) vs. Virginia Tech (10-3)

*Peach goes by Chick Fil'a these days.