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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Tuesday, November 29, 2016

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: Championship Weekend

Christmas party on me and my profits!
Well well well, it looks like I'll be taking a profit into the Christmas holidays for the whole season.  After a couple weeks of bleeding away my early season profits, things came together last weekend.  It wasn't a romp, but enough to keep the win train going!

Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 34-29-2 (+$210, 3.2% profit)

While normally I have a full slate of games to cherry pick, we can do nothing more than pick the Power Five Conference Championship Games (or the defacto version of the Big 12).  But before that, a short commercial break.  If you want to know how I feel about how the College Football Playoff committee should vote based upon results this weekend, check out this Blog.

But back to the picks, here we go!

Pac 12 Championship Game
Washington (-7.5) vs Colorado (Friday 12/2 9:00 p.m. EST - Santa Clara, CA)

Washington seems like a team that woke up when it had it's bell rung on the road against a surging Southern California team.  Throw out that game and they haven't been played in less than a TD.  They didn't seem to play scared last weekend in the Apple Cup, and their defense shuts down the Buffs to win something like 24-7 (take the under 58, too).

Oklahoma (-11.5) vs Oklahoma State (12:30 p.m. EST)

As this is a regular season game, it's in Norman.  The Sooners do well in Norman.  There have been times that Oklahoma State wrecked the Sooners hopes but this isn't one of those years.  Oklahoma muddled through injuries (and some suspensions) during the season but is peaking.  Oklahoma State has been more the category of doing just enough to win.  Explosive offenses abound, I take Oklahoma 42-31 (believe it or not, that's an under 77.5).

SEC Championship Game
Florida (+24) vs Alabama (4:00 p.m. EST - Atlanta, GA)

This just seems like too many points.  Alabama has been a machine at hitting games right near the line, so if I had my choice I would probably no play.  That being said, Florida's defense can be good, and Alabama has been winning more low scoring games lately.  So something like 28-7 would seem right.  That's also an under (40) play.

ACC Championship Game
Clemson (-10) vs Virginia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST - Orlando, FL)

Another big spread, but another veteran team against an upstart team that isn't the same level.  Clemson was in this situation last year and it was tight.  It won't be tight.  Clemson uses their talent advantage and I'm guessing a crowd outnumbering the opposition to win 34-21.  Under 58.

Big 10 Championship Game
Penn State (+2.5) vs Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST - Indianapolis, IN)

Penn State continues to get disrespected and they continously prove doubters wrong.  They haven't lost since September 24 and haven't won by fewer than 2 TD since October 1 (besides a stunning upset of Ohio State).  They are rolling.  Wisconsin has had an amazing season playing a tough schedule, but Nittany wins this one by a FG at least. 

So with this result, I would have: Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Big 10 in the playoff.  I would take Penn State, but the committee seems to value Ohio State.

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