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Thursday, November 10, 2016

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/12/2016

I don't like the looks of this week
A so-so week for sure, but a couple of bad beats in the SEC with LSU and Kentucky fighting close but losing the spread at the end.  No matter, you take the bad with the good.

Summary:
Previous Week: 2-3 (-130)
Season: 28-21-1 (+$490, 8.9% profit)

No good feelings this week.  Not many big games under a touchdown which is the sweet spot I prefer.  Plus I'm still on a "No Texas" stance, they are too unpredictable.  As it is, going to look at four out of five favorites and hope a few go off.

Oklahoma (-17.5) vs Baylor (Noon EST)

Baylor is in shambles.  Shambles.  Their depth is getting tested now that they're in the tougher part of their schedule.  And they go on the road to a surging Oklahoma team.  This is the beginning of the end for the Briles Bears era.  And this one won't be close.

Navy (-2) vs Tulsa (Noon EST)

Two very hot teams, actually, and I like picking this one because it's under a field goal.  The game is in Annapolis where Navy is undefeated ATS.  I just see Navy methodically taking it to Tulsa and winning by at least a FG.

Indiana (+7) vs Penn State (Noon EST)

I know Penn State is hot, but on the road, this is a game the Hoosiers can surprise. In three trips away from Happy Valley, Nittany is only 1-2.  Plus teams that suddenly get in the Top 10 playoff rankings sometimes feel pressure.  I predict Indiana catches Penn State sleep walking and at least keeps it at about a field goal.

Oklahoma State (-12.5) vs Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)

Oklahoma State is quietly one of the improving teams in the Big 12.  After stumbling against Central Michigan, they've suffered a loss at Baylor but are undefeated since September.  Texas Tech is very very suspect on defense.  Really can't stop much and their offense isn't consistent enough to score.  Throw in a banged up QB and I see the Cowboys winning by a couple of TDs easy.

Texas A+M (-10) vs Mississippi (7:30 p.m. EST)

In a game with backup quarterbacks, I'll take the team with the guy who has experience and the team that's Top 10 and not teetering on bowl ineligibility.  Both teams are reeling, Texas A+M reels this time every year, but I believe at home they'll be able to run away from Ole Miss and a completely unproven QB (whoever he is).

Unfortunately this week doesn't seem to be one where upsets of top teams will be prevalent.  But I do think the above will at least get you a little profit!


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