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Friday, November 4, 2016

J.R. Ewing College Football Picks: 11/5/2016

J.R. says "Don't mess with [betting on] Texas"
Sounding like a broken record, but another winning week last Saturday.  In this game, you take your 60% where you can get them.  I'm done betting on Texas Longhorns games, you would think if you just bet home vs. away you'd win every time but too unpredictable.

Summary:
Previous Week: 3-2 (+80)
Season: 26-18-1 (+$620, 12.5% profit)

As the College Football Playoff poll is released, there is sudden focus on the eye test where teams on the outside looking in may look to push the score up a bit more than in previous weeks with the new urgency.  Teams in the playoff suddenly are targets to upsets.  All that being said, I like five underdogs this week, all are between 2.5 and 7.5 points, many at home.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Miami (12:30 p.m. EDT)

This is a game of teams going in opposite directions.  Once the competition stepped up, Miami has stepped aside.  Meanwhile Pittsburgh is playing some good football, with a narrow loss to impressive Virginia Tech and a win over Penn State.  Meanwhile, Miami has lost four straight both straight up and ATS.  I like the better football team here, and that's Pittsburgh.  Home field is almost irrelevant since kickoff is so early.

Oklahoma State (+3) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EDT)

Oklahoma State has won four straight Big 12 games, including a throttling of previously undefeated West Virginia.  Kansas State is well coached, but under talented.  I would nod the Cowboys by a point or three, so if you're giving me points, I'll take the Pokes, even in Manhattan.

Arkansas (+4) vs Florida (3:30 p.m. EDT)

This is an SEC East vs. West play.  The East seldom beats the West, and Arkansas is a solid team.  They're coming off a humiliating loss at Auburn and will have something to prove.  Florida just keeps on playing defense and winning, but, again, give me some points at home with an East team playing at West, I'll go West.

Kentucky (+2.5) vs Georgia (7:30 p.m. EDT)

What is it going to take to get bettors to believe in Kentucky?  Three straight conference wins, 5-1 in their last six games, and five straight covers.  Meanwhile Georgia is struggling, which is what happens when you have a freshman QB and new head coach.  Georgia hasn't won on a Saturday since September 17, a one point squeaker over awful Missouri.  If you look at the rosters, Georgia should win this.  But Kentucky is playing some good football.

LSU (+7.5) vs Alabama (8:00 p.m. EDT)

It's rare that Alabama runs the SEC gauntlet unscathred, there's always a tough road game where they play a bit below par and the other team steps up.  LSU is playing well under Coach Orgeron and would love to play spoiler to their rival.  Given the betting line just above a TD, I'll take my chances on a wild game in the Swamp and a Tigers cover.

It's November, the peak of College Football season!  Enjoy your Saturday!

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