Sportsman of the Week Ending 2/9/2014

Football is over, so we move to the "spring sports."  This week we stick at the college level and start with the Number 1 (RPI, Sagarin) conference in America, the Big 12.  Iowa State's Melvin Ejim lit up TCU on Saturday with 48 points and 18 rebounds, setting a new single game point record in the Big 12 conference, now approaching 20 years old (if you can believe that).  Ejim also pumped in 22 points and 13 boards on Big Monday as they upset Oklahoma State in a triple overtime thriller.  In all, 70 points in 31 rebounds in two wins in the best conference in America.  Good enough for the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Super Bowl XLVIII Redux

The carnage, the pure carnage!!!  It was the worst of times, it was even worse than that for Peyton Manning.  This shot of his brother, cleverly captured by Fox, tells it all:

This picture tells a lot more stories than Eli's face.  Which is classic.  It literally looks like he's about to cry, as he witnesses his big brother get beat up by bullies.  There's empty beer cups behind him, reminiscent of a time in the game in which he might have felt like drinking beer.  This is not that time of game.  And who hasn't been there when you just turn the TV off.  Or shoot it with a gun.  But he had to keep watching.  They guy behind him, arms crossed frustrated, can't even wear his Broncos hat anymore.  And just the two of them, nobody else could bear to watch.  And of course, the score.  Brutal.  You could literally sum up the game with that one well-timed TV shot.

But we have more space than that.  First of all, my gambling picks were completely out of sight.  Coming into Super Sunday, I was $4,604 in the hole, or 15% down (given $30K in wagers).  But I raised the stakes, baby.  Here's the declaration.  I put down $5,000 each on the S/U, ATS, and O/U, and won all three for $14,841 in profit.  Clearing $10,237 for the entire playoffs with $45,000 wagered.  Not bad.  I've done worse.  Bottle of Champagne on me!

But here's some stats to make you think.  What if I told you the following:

• Peyton Manning would set a record for completions in a Super Bowl
• Demaryius Thomas would set a record for receptions in a Super Bowl, and go 13-118, and a TD
• Wes Welker would also go 8-84 in a supporting role
• Marshawn Lynch would rush for fewer than 40 yards and average 2.6 per carry
• No Seattle WR would have more than 5 catches, nor more than 66 yards
• The Seahawks would draw 10 penalties for 104 yards, more than double the Broncos
• Tarvaris Jackson would be in the game in the 4th quarter
• Percy Harvin would be limited to one catch for 5 yards
• The Seahawks would be 0-2 on fourth downs

Who would YOU think would have won the game.  Let alone not been blown out????  Shows what stats mean.  Turnovers, special teams scores, and a complete lack of any running game dictated the outcome.  Not to mention mental mistakes like the safety to start the game, and the constant pressure on Manning forcing the two turnovers.

Three factors I think that were underdiscussed.

1. The Broncos, not being at home, could not utilize their normal array of audibles (yes, including "Omaha") and presumably had to settle for a less effective play.
2. The Seahawks defense is salty.  Didn't have to gimmick, just play straight up and they wouldn't get beat.
3. Pete Carroll and his Seahawks coaching staff completely out-prepared John Fox and his Denver Broncos coaching staff.

Congrats to the City of Seattle, been decades since a team won something. And they are great fans.

But, can they repeat????

Follow @lhd_on_sports

Sportsman of the Week Ending 2/2/2014

This might have been one of the toughest weeks to pick a Sportsman.  The Super Bowl itself named a defensive player who, while scoring a TD, wasn't that much head and shoulders above the rest of his team.  I thought about naming the entire Seattle Seahawks defense, but that's not how this Blog works.  So I'm going with another difference maker.  Percy Harvin really put the game away with his 87-yard kickoff return to start the second half.  It was "only" 22-0, with one Denver score away from getting things rolling.  But the oft-injured slash went off.  No only that, he was the Seahawks leading rusher at 2 carries for 45 yards.  137 total yards is enough for me, Percy Harvin, you are the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

This week, we experience the ultimate single game in American Sports.  The Super Bowl.  There have been 47 to date, and each literally wrote history, from players to teams to coaches to dynasties. The 48th chapter features two evenly matched teams, here yours truly, J.R. Ewing, evaluates who I think will prevail.

But first (unfortunately for my oil assets), we must look at how I did on my Championship Game predictions.  In a word "not too good."  With $6,000 wagered on ATS, S/U, and O/U, I returned $3,326.  Total for the playoffs, about $4,604 in the hole ($30,000 wagered returned $25,396).  We have to up it for the Super Bowl, right?  I'm rich, so we got $5,000 per bet, ATS, S/U, and O/U, let's get it on!

February 2, 2014: 18:30 EST
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +115) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5, -125) O/U 47.5

There are lots of angles here.

You have the Number 1 offense (Denver) against the number 1 defense (Seattle).  Typically good defense beats good offense in my opinion.  But note that Seattle struggled against a "Broncos light" team in the Indianapolis Colts to one of their three losses.

Both teams didn't have to leave their home stadium to make it here.  Both teams enjoy a very strong advantage at home.  The weather might be a little less than ideal, this might tilt it to the defense.

The Seahawks are believed to be getting Percy Harvin back, a big play weapon they've been missing this whole season.

In the end, here's how I see it breaking down.  The Broncos offense will not have faced a defense this tough all season.  Staying base, the Seahawks can shut the Broncos down running, but the question is, can they do it passing?  If Peyton Manning gets hot, then the Seahawks might back off and the Broncos will have success.  But none of this is going to happen.  The Broncos have struggled offensively, at least to put up points, and it will only go down.  They can only put up 20 or so.  The Seahawks are now facing a much lighter defense than they've faced.  And they were able to put up 23 PPG against much better defenses.  They'll get their points, especially behind the grinding rushing attack of Marshawn Lynch.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 28, Broncos 20

This puts us JUST over the 47.5, but I'm willing to bet that.  The Broncos "might" get some big plays and I don't see the Seahawks offense struggling that much.

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

For full Super Bowl Preview courtesy of the Sports-Kings, check out this YouTube show!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/26/2014

No NFL this week, so we check down to a tour sport and we do have the first tour major (i.e. Grand Slam) of the year, the Australian Open.  And this year's winner on the men's side emerged to win his first Grand Slam title.  Stanislas Wawrinka emerged among a hall of fame field including Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and runner up Rafael Nadal (6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.  Some might say the victory was not pure because of Nadal's physical ailments, but when a tournament starts with 128 participants and you win seven straight, you are a Grand Slam winner.  And this week's Longhorndave Sporstman of the Week!

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/19/2014

It's hard to migrate away from football this week, and our Sportsman truly exhibited the characteristics of greatness in a key individual matchup and contest.  The Denver Broncos Peyton Manning dissected a New England Patriots defense to the tune of 32-43 for 400 yards with 2 TD, methodically keeping the ball away from his rival Tom Brady for over 35 minutes of play.  And his Denver Broncos advanced to the Super Bowl by an easy 26-16 margin.  It could have been worse if they needed more points, but they largely played keep away in the fourth quarter, settling for long, time-consuming drives and field goals.  Peyton Manning becomes the second athlete to be awarded this honor two times (LeBron James is the other).  I cannot think of two more dominant athletes of our era to earn it.  Congratulations Peyton, you are the Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2013-14 NFL Week Three Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

After a rough Week 1 (-$5,247), I hit big time Oil Money with a 9-3 week and $3,317 in winnings.  12-11-1 overall.  Unfortunately, some of the hits were smaller straight up bets.  But we recovered some losses and without a big money underdog winning, not much to recover.


Recap of how this works. Each week of the NFL Playoffs I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side (reduced income for heavy favorites).

Most pundits agree that the four best teams are playing, especially with no major upsets last week.  And the two best teams are hosting.  There are definitely no clear favorites and the matchups (Brady vs. Manning, Kaepernick vs. Wilson) are intriguing to say the least. 

January 19, 2014: 15:00 EST
New England Patriots (+6, +220) vs. Denver Broncos (-6, -240) O/U 55.5
Will this be the final chapter of Manning vs. Brady?  If so, it couldn't be on a bigger stage.  The Patriots seem a little soft on defense and the Broncos seem like their defense is getting better.  I feel like the Broncos got past a bigger hurdle than normal last week in their home win (demons from last year exorcised).  Brady usually wins this matchup, but hasn't had to go to Manning's house so much.  The Patriots are beatable on the road, and the Broncos will beat them.  It will be very high scoring.  Final Prediction: Broncos 38, Patriots 31.

January 19, 2014: 18:30 EST
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, +170) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -185) O/U 39
I have to think what I saw last week out of these teams is what to expect this week.  The Seahawks, while at home, struggled to move the ball against the New Orleans Saints after they got a marginal lead.  And had to protect a frantic situation in the closing moments.  The 49ers sustained early momentum and emotion by the host Carolina Panthers, methodically dismantled both their offense and defense and won with ease.  Both defenses will rule the day, but I don't see the Seahawks moving the ball that well.  Colin Kaepernick is the difference and gets enough points to win.  Watch out for a defensive score, could change everything.  Final Prediction: 49ers 20 Seahawks 10.


The three "best bets" it would be:
1) 49ers: ATS
2) 49ers/Seahawks: Under
3) Patriots/Broncos :Over

Best Bets were 3-0 last week, 5-1 on season (no S/U taken for a favorite).

For full playoff analysis including my own predictions, check out the Sports-Kings YouTube Channel:

Sportsman of the Week Ending 1/12/2014

There were a lot of outstanding players this weekend of the NFL Division Playoffs, but this week's Sportsman of the Week put his team on his back and lifted them to a third straight AFC Championship Game.  LeGarrette Blount of the New England Patriots busted out for 166 yards and 4 TD as his team advanced to face the Denver Broncos.  After a moribund first 15 games never breaking 70 yards in a single game with only 5 TDs, he's surged for 355 yards and 6 TD in Week 17 (a key win to get the Bye) and Divisional Playoff.  His most defining run, a 73 yard dagger that put the Patriots up by 14, was the difference-making play to win the game.  LeGarrette Blount is this week's Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week!

2013-14 NFL Week Two Playoff Preview

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site).

Well things didn't exactly go my way last week.  With $12,000 on the line, I recovered $6,753 (mostly on O/U) with a record of 3-8-1.  Alas, I can take the $5K+ hit, especially when I know I got sure winners this week!

Recap of how this works. Each week of the NFL Playoffs I'll preview the games, predict final scores, and oh, by the way, keep track of my overall oil money for straight up, ATS, and O/U on each game.  For ATS and O/U, $1100 is the Wager.  For S/U (a.k.a. Money Line), it's $1000 on either side (reduced income for heavy favorites)

Week 2 features teams who had to battle in the Wild Card weekend against teams that were the best four in the regular season AND had a Bye week.  The Bye Week can be a double edged sword, but for the most part, teams will take it.  So without further ado, let's preview!

January 11, 2014: 16:35 EST
New Orleans Saints (+8.5, +340) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-8.5, -380) O/U 44.5
The Saints proved me wrong last week with a somewhat surprising road win in Philadelphia.  The Saints have a balanced team, but usually doesn't do such things on the road.  Now they go to arguably the toughest stadium to visit in Seattle against who many think are the best balanced team.  Nothing here looks like it will be different than the first time the faced off here earlier this season, so I predict the same final score.  Final Prediction: Seahawks 34 Saints 7.


January 11, 2014: 20:15 EST
Indianapolis Colts (+7, +270) vs. New England Patriots (-7, -300) O/U 53.5
Indianapolis played one of the most entertaining games in Wild Card Weekend, with a furious comeback against the Kansas City Chiefs to win by one.  The Colts relied on Luck's (sometimes errant) arm and a monster day from (Co-sportsman of the Week) T.Y. Hilton.  The Patriots always seem to win at home in the playoffs and will scheme their defense to stop the Colts passing attack and win a very technical game. Final Prediction: Patriots 31 Colts 17.

January 12, 2014: 13:05 EST
San Francisco 49ers  (+1, -110) vs. Carolina Panthers (+1, +110) O/U 41
Most fans have this game circled as being the most entertaining.  The Panthers won the two seed in the NFC, but fans have seen San Francisco perform in the postseason and know they'll battle.  The game is in Carolina, again, most fans don't fear that crowd.  With Kaepernick's experience, I think the Niners TCB and move on.  Relatively easily. Final Prediction: 49ers 28, Panthers 17.

January 12, 2014: 16:40 EST
San Diego Chargers (+9, +335) vs. Denver Broncos (-9, -375) O/U 54.5
The Chargers are starting to look like a team of destiny, having won four in a row to make the playoffs, then embarrassing the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday.  But they still don't look too good doing it.  However, one of those four wins was against these same Broncos in this same stadium.  The environment won't bother the Bolts, but the Broncos offense will.  I do think it will be close, but Peyton and the Broncos prevail.  Final Prediction: Broncos 38, Chargers 35.

The three "best bets" it would be:
1) Saints vs. Seahawks: Under
2) 49ers: Money Line
3) Patriots: ATS

Best Bets were 2-1 last week.

For full playoff analysis, check out the Sports-Kings YouTube Channel:

Sportsmen of the Week Ending 1/5/2014

For the first time in Blog history, we are going to have TWO Sportsmen of the Week.  Since I write this and get to make the rules, there is literally no discernible difference between these two.  So just bear with me.

The first Sportsman of the Week led the second best comeback in NFL Playoff history.  T.Y. Hilton for the Indianapolis Colts was an uncoverable beast in the Indianapolis Colts shocking comeback victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The end line was 13 catches, 224 yards, and 2 TDs.  The Colts pulled out an incredible 45-44 win after trailing 38-10 early in the third quarter.  With quarterback Andrew Luck shaky early, he turned to Hilton time and time again and was never let down.  Congrats on being one of the Longhorndave Sportsmen of the Week.

The second Sportsman of the Week led his team to a high stakes win against a team that had been considered a favorite to make the BCS Championship Game.  Clemson has suffered frustrating defeat time and time again as they try enter the NCAA Football elite.  After an embarrassing Orange Bowl loss two seasons ago, they thirsted for a win against Ohio State and got it 40-35.  While Tajh Boyd could have been the honoree, it was really WR Sammy Watkins who seemed to be the unstoppable force.  His line, 16 catches, 227 yards, 2 TDs (pretty much the above).  While college lends itself to bigger numbers, the stakes of the game were just as high as playoff.  Watkins has declared for the NFL, maybe the Colts can snag him opposite Hilton!  Congrats to Watkins for a worthy Longhorndave Sportsman of the Week.