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I'm from Houston, a graduate of the University of Texas, a fan of the Houston Astros and Houston Texans. But this blog will be about the "greater sports", whatever that means.

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Saturday, January 14, 2012

NFL Playoff Week Two Predictions

Betting information courtesy of 5dimes.com at the time of post (this blog has no affiliation with that site)

January 14, 2012: 16:30 EST
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, -175) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, +165) O/U 47
Going into the playoffs I really liked New Orleans to go deep, but I felt myself starting to hedge. They aren't that good on the road, and the 49ers are by far the most underrated team in the playoffs. But I think Brees and the Saints playoff experience carries the day. If the 49ers can get their ground game going with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree making big 3rd down catches they might be in business. Keep away from the Saints is a must. I think the game goes to the 4th quarter but the Saints pull it out. Final Prediction: Saints 28, 49ers 23.

January 14, 2012: 20:00 EST
Denver Broncos (+13.5, +575) vs. New England Patriots (-13.5, -710) O/U 50
The Broncos had a banner week last week, but two main factors gave them the edge (albeit barely). A home crowd (for the most part) and an opposing QB very limited in mobility. The Patriots have struggled at home in the playoffs (crowds seem more nervous than enthused) and, oh yeah, remember that Brady is banged up (as are a dozen others). And their defense is porous A week off helped, but the tight lipped Patriots might be hiding something. I can't pick the Broncos to win, but I think they'll keep it close. Final Prediction: Patriots 28, Broncos 21.

January 15, 2012: 13:00 EST
Houston Texans (+7.5, +305) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, -335) O/U 36
Some people look at the earlier season matchup (of which Baltimore won 29-14) and think it wasn't close. The Texans were leading that game deep into the 3rd quarter before running out of offensive juice. That game they had Schaub but not Johnson. The Ravens will play textbook, try to get Rice going and torment Yates. I think they will mostly succeed. Final Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 16.

January 15, 2012: 16:30 EST
New York Giants (+7.5, +305) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -335) O/U 53
Other than gamblers, this seems to be the game that most people think will be the closest. The Giants have an "it" factor with Manning (which I didn't fully appreciate when picking against them last week). Something is off with the Packers, it was too easy early in the year, and things aren't smooth late. Some injuries, too. Maybe some rust today. And cold weather. I'm going to pull the trigger on a Giants upset, they do look like that 2007 team that faced a huge battle every week and seemed beat teams that seemed comfortable (at home and rested). Final Prediction: Giants 34, Packers 31.

Gambling summary :

My 3-game parlay last week only hit one but overall (if 100 units assumed gambled on ATS, Money Line, and O/U) I would have gambled 1200 and ended the week with 1470. A bit below even except for the Broncos money line. This assumes -110 on all lines and O/U.

This week's best bets (for parlay)
Giants ATS
Broncos ATS
NYG/Packers Over

1 comment:

  1. Looking like I squeaked out a profit by hitting all three betting interests in the Packers/Giants game. I was down 295 the first day, went down another 170 on the early AFC game, then behind the +305 money line, Giants cover, and Over, jumped up 487.